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Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot
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What precisely am I "full of ****" about?
A lot. You're what's known to the layman as a "bull****ter."
"A lot" but you can't name a couple of things? Seems weird.
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Right, an isolated short term result in a bull market says a ton about your long term investing skill--->the only ****** here is you.
Look, this is hilarious...but even non-tards get this one wrong so I'l give you a pass.
Yes, winning this shifts the line substantially on whether what I claim is true (that there are 500%/year edges in the market and that I can pick them with 95% probability). How much in absolute terms depends on your priors, but in relative terms the move is very large. If one in ten people who make this claim and then make this bet are capable of doing it, it becomes quite close to even money, upon winning, that I am one those people. This is simple Bayes.
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You claim you can make 500% in a year. With an initial investment of $1000 at 500% a year, it would only take you 10 years to reach a billion. For $10k, it'd only take 7.2 years.
No, I claim I can turn $1000 into $6000 reliably, not that I can make 500%/year on any amount of money. They are two vastly different claims. You probably don't trade, but slippage on options starts to hurt a lot at mid 5 figures. At 6 you'll struggle getting filled for most things without large slipnpage. Some of the more profitable setups, like Tesla, will slip a lot at mid four figures. So if you can make 500%/year at $1000 with high probability but some risk of ruin, your return on half a million is probably only 150%/year or so with no risk of ruin.
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It's not hugely ev, because a. it's a bull market right ow
I'll be trading mostly if not entirely puts, so this is in your favor!
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and b. this isolated event whether you win or lose means nothing (like literally nothing, it doesn't even skew the line a little bit) about your long term investing competence, which is what the bet is really about.
The bolded is a hilariously false statement, unless you assume that the probability is zero that anyone can do this long term, which I think is an unfounded assumption that has to has wide confidence bars. Do you even Bayes, bro? Any probability >0 that someone can do this, a single successful demonstration shifts the line a large amount that the person who did it once is one of those people. Might seem counterintuitive in cuck math class, but much of probability is.
But regardless, any sane rational person snap calls the odds being offered here if you believe I have no edge over the market. Brian snap called and crowed about it, because he's rational and enjoys having a rational edge.
It seems my detractors are not only daft, but cowardly and hateful of +++EV situations.
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You can prove me wrong in one move: show me your long term results. Should be quite tempting for someone so concerned with being right all the time....unless of course you can't.
It wouldn't prove anything. Screenshots are easily doctored. I can't think of any way to prove returns other than real time posted trades - which I'll be doing here.
Bet started two days ago with Brian and I agreeing on how this will be set up (post here, post in private chat, screenshot the completed trade entry/exit so Brian can look it up in historical options data).