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Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet

12-03-2018 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
It's funny because I think both of you have completely misunderstood what the other one was saying
Yep
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-03-2018 , 10:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Sounds about right. If anything it's assuming negative skill. A monkey throwing darts would do a little better.

Take any options spread that pays out 5:1. In an efficient market it should cost you roughly 5:1 plus the bid/ask spread to make that bet, so likely somewhere between 6:1 and 8:1 depending on how liquid your options are. If that weren't true it would be trivial to generate alpha on one side or the other.

Completely random example that will illustrate the point (though I didn't bother to look for one that's particularly close to those numbers):

Tesla Dec 21 2019 Calls
395 strike: Bid/Ask 2.78/2.87
400 strike: Bid/Ask 2.06/2.18

Buying the 395-400 call bull spread with a market order would cost you 2.87-2.06 = 0.81. This pays out $5 when Tesla trades above 400 at expiry and $0 if it trades below 395 so you're getting 4.19 to 0.81 which is a 5.17 to 1 payout.

Taking the other side, selling this spread and paying the bid/ask, you'd get paid 2.78 - 2.18 = 0.60, so if the true odds are worse than 4.4 to 0.6, or 7.33 to 1 you could sell this spread and crush.

The middle of the market is at 2.82-2.12 = 0.70 so the market is saying the true odds are roughly 4.3 to 0.70, or 6.14 to 1. Tesla calls probably have a mouthbreather premium built in so the true probability is likely closer to the 7.33 to 1. It's incredibly unlikely it's much worse than 8:1 or you'd crush selling these options.

So yes, a mouthbreather can buy a random options spread with the desired payouts and be better than 8:1 to make 5:1 on his money.
Thanks for doing the math. That is really interesting. Also, shows that TS is at the very least knowledgeable on the subject (if it wasn't already blatantly obvious).
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-04-2018 , 06:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
8:1 for a mouth breather to hit a trade, or series of, to turn 1k in 5k (6k????)... Interesting take.
Can I trade roulette?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-04-2018 , 05:51 PM
Today would have been a good day to make a fake trade.

El oh el.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-04-2018 , 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Today would have been a good day to make a fake trade.

El oh el.
Right. He’s too busy scolding me for selling SPY call spreads instead of buying puts which as he said, “was a 40-bagger today”. At least I have a good shot at a 10% week even if SPY goes up (which wouldn’t have been the case buying a put).
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-04-2018 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CandyKreep
Right. He’s too busy scolding me for selling SPY call spreads instead of buying puts which as he said, “was a 40-bagger today”. At least I have a good shot at a 10% week even if SPY goes up (which wouldn’t have been the case buying a put).
Yeah, 40-bagger, eyeroll. Is it still a 40-bagger if you only trade it in hindsight and on sim?

(Cue the ad homs)
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 12:21 AM
I'm waiting for the last trading week for tooth to post a trade he made in April. The penultimate troll.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 01:17 AM
Who do I owe money to? Or did I win/am about to win? i think it was like 5 eth.. so better grease them cheeks if I'm a winner bois.

Also, if you're turning 1k into 6k, doesn't that mean you only have 1k to play with? how the hell you gonna talk about leverage? if you bet the 1k, you have nothing back to leverage with right?

I know fukall about trading, but I know a lot about people talking out their arse, and TS is a two holer.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 01:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonfox
Also, if you're turning 1k into 6k, doesn't that mean you only have 1k to play with? how the hell you gonna talk about leverage? if you bet the 1k, you have nothing back to leverage with right?
lol
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 01:46 AM
so he's able to lose more than 1k? how is that turning 1k into 6?

EDIT: or are you lol'ng because I just blew your mind? I don't trade options, or anything but baseball cards and std's. in case you missed the final "paragraph" of my post
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah bet is on. If I don't have real time posted proven trades taking me over $6000 by December 31, starting from $1000, I owe Brian $500. If I do, he owes me $1000.
Interesting how bet morphed from the quoted to a one time punt.

Of course when you make 39k on 300 trades in a month what's the point of, you know, like actually trading.

Also, tooth must not have made many prop bets in his life. The fact he said "trades" leaves him open to a possible angle from Brian. I assume Brian has enough integrity to not try that angle. I don't doubt tooth would try for it if situations were flipped.

Last edited by turtletom; 12-05-2018 at 10:37 AM.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonfox
I know fukall about trading, but I know a lot about people talking out their arse, and TS is a two holer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonfox
so he's able to lose more than 1k? how is that turning 1k into 6?

EDIT: or are you lol'ng because I just blew your mind? I don't trade options, or anything but baseball cards and std's. in case you missed the final "paragraph" of my post
Such life winners on the other side. rofl.

Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Interesting how bet morphed from the quoted to a one time punt.

Of course when you make 39k on 300 trades in a month what's the point of, you know, like actually trading.
You really want attention, don't you? Lots of reasons for doing it in one trade. It doesn't require dozens of real time posts which is a pain in the ass when you're, you know, actually trading and making money, it's more fun, it gutpunches Brian better. The last thing I think of when I'm entering a big rare trade where I'm going to rake in 5 or 6 figures (like the high five figure trade in October which caused me to unusually quit early for the day and celebrate with a spa, ironically missing a no risk 11 minute 30 bagger), is "gee I should post this on the Internet".

Quote:
Also, tooth must not have made many prop bets in his life. The fact he said "trades" leaves him open to a possible angle from Brian. I assume Brian has enough integrity to not try that angle.
There's no angle you chump. And Brian is not the kind of loser to angle shoot like that. He'll play this straight up as will I. And I have zero doubt he'll pay.

You notice how I want an escrow from you for $300 but not from Brian for $1000? There's a reason for that.
Quote:
I don't doubt tooth would try for it if situations were flipped.
I actually made this bet fair by rejecting Brian's request for a play money account (I pointed out how it could be gamed) and insisting on real money receipts and real time posted trades. I'm as standup a guy as they come. It's right here in the thread and in prior conversations on here that set this up. But don't let facts get in the way of you feeling low status and lashing out because you got roundly mocked for not taking the bet and for having a Wifemother.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Such life winners on the other side. rofl.


You really want attention, don't you? Lots of reasons for doing it in one trade. It doesn't require dozens of real time posts which is a pain in the ass when you're, you know, actually trading and making money, it's more fun, it gutpunches Brian better. The last thing I think of when I'm entering a big rare trade where I'm going to rake in 5 or 6 figures (like the high five figure trade in October which caused me to unusually quit early for the day and celebrate with a spa, ironically missing a no risk 11 minute 30 bagger), is "gee I should post this on the Internet".


There's no angle you chump. And Brian is not the kind of loser to angle shoot like that. He'll play this straight up as will I. And I have zero doubt he'll pay.

You notice how I want an escrow from you for $300 but not from Brian for $1000? There's a reason for that.

I actually made this bet fair by rejecting Brian's request for a play money account (I pointed out how it could be gamed) and insisting on real money receipts and real time posted trades. I'm as standup a guy as they come. It's right here in the thread and in prior conversations on here that set this up. But don't let facts get in the way of you feeling low status and lashing out because you got roundly mocked for not taking the bet and for having a Wifemother.
Triggered much?

You could just post your confirms from Nov. that match up with your monthly trade report statement you posted. No real need to do it in real time. The pic you posted was from an ib account (at least it looks like one). Just select the dates, screenshot, and make me look dumb.

It would be more of a gut punch to Brian if you showed a repeatable process. All you are doing is punting at this point. If someone told me they crushed the sportsbook but then made 1 bet in a year long prop bet and it was a 3 game parlay I'd laugh.

It's amazing how a guy that is so good, 95% hit rate on x-baggers, wouldn't just win this bet in the first 6 months. You would only need to make two trades. Your arguments are pretty weak.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 11:52 AM
Literally, all you have to do is post credible evidence of a six figure or even five figure month with matching confirms.

The problem is you cannot.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 11:59 AM
All you have are the same talking points that you recycle through and its getting boring. Would you mind sharing one of your trades or even some analysis on a potential trade or setup?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 12:41 PM
Jesus ****ing christ tom, don't you have some studying to do or something?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 02:43 PM
I wonder how many hours per day his wife lets him use her computer while she's slaving away trying to make a nice life for her family?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 09:47 PM
Why does tooth not win the bet if it’s so easy? Why is this thread 700+posts? He’s either lying or he’s a coward or he’s legit. What is this thread even about?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-05-2018 , 11:00 PM
Look, man, take a side. You're either with the proles or you're not...
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-06-2018 , 07:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonh
Why does tooth not win the bet if it’s so easy? Why is this thread 700+posts? He’s either lying or he’s a coward or he’s legit. What is this thread even about?
Yup, that narrows it down!
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-07-2018 , 05:56 PM
14.5 trading days to go, still no trades?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-07-2018 , 06:03 PM
It has to be a real time trade correct?

Does TS get the banhammer again if he does nothing?
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-07-2018 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
It has to be a real time trade correct?

Does TS get the banhammer again if he does nothing?
Why would he? He just loses the bet
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-07-2018 , 07:59 PM
God is watching, and taking notes.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote
12-07-2018 , 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Why would he? He just loses the bet
I mean, everyone but you and a couple of other TS fanbois are pretty sure he's a total fraud and troll. If he doesn't even attempt to win the bet why would he have an ounce of credibility left?

A ban might be a little harsh though, it seems that 2+2 is all he has in life, which, considering he has never played a hand of poker, is perhaps the saddest thing about him.
Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet Quote

      
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