You know that current position is up right? And this after getting really cornered by bad market earlier. If Intel opens near 47 or 46 or 45.5 and holds around by close tomorrow it will be significantly up under a period the stock dropped big.


In fact if we close near 47 it will be up 75% and if i then hold position hedging downside a bit and we go to 49 say next week (very unlikely but lets imagine) it can be at 2.5x of initial just like that.

So i am not saying it will do those things but i like how it has evolved without me at any point going all in or doing something very irresponsible given the adversity the stock had.

Even if we end tomorrow near 44 45 it will not be terrible outcome given how it all developed. Also ending that low given the blowout earnings they had is idiotic and to be expected by the way market and corruption by analysts behaves against intel for decades now but one day they will get it right.

Please carry on masque, I'm learning how to do this so that I might win the bet. Thank you.

Well in all seriousness if you have only 1 month left its still possible and you should try it because its better than the alternative of losing it.

You do it this way;

You go 25% in some extreme sell off calls. then double to 50%, triple to 75% and go all in at the end if it keeps crashing and then you can recover with some probability a lot.

You find some stupid crypto coin that is down 30% for the week and go all in and sell next week.

You have to do something. At least do it at the end.

I will not try to do it here because it is not my bet since i didnt have a year.

But the way to do it is play carefully like i do now all year and then at last month go wild if not there.

You cannot sit back and lose just like that because Brian didnt have to do anything and this is not the manly thing is it?

You go out and fight and lose and so be it. I trust you can do it statistically so show it and i will not expect it from you every year and still respect skill when i see it.


I also think that the responsible claim is probably 100% per year not 6x and that can be reliably done with a variety of methods. Commando mode 6x is possibel though if you get a stock in a zone and apply a kelly model with buy sell signals every 15 days all year.

How are traders so confident in their predictions? It seems there are so many factors that go into pricing that it would be very difficult to determine if you have good methods or just got lucky.

Not to do with trading specifically, but this paper is worth a read (see PDF link on the top right): Delusions of expertise: the high standard of proof needed to demonstrate skills at horserace handicapping

Juk

Yup. The long run is a very long time if you have low edge and a very short time if you have high edge.

I would say that 3 bets making 100,000% cumulatively has greater significance than 10,000 bets returning 9%.

Dunning–Kruger effect

The long run in sports betting is also very much related to strike rate, ie the average actual probability of winning.

Nick Mordin's rule of thumb of 100 winners is reasonable, though errs on the cautious side when backing lower priced events eg if you're rolling a die 600 events might be a reasonable number, but if you're coin flipping you don't need 200 events to see if your coin is significantly based.

It becomes a serious problem in sports betting for a few reasons:

- It's very hard to find value at bookies' short prices eg most of the bookie value in UK horse racing is held to be in the range ~4 to 8ish on average, and if you're backing at an average price of say 6 when the true average price is say 5 you'll need a minimum of 500 bets before you can be confident of your edge. Few bettors probably make 500 bets in a year.

- A low strike rate means you have to stake a smaller % of your bank to allow for longer losing runs.

- The psychological effect of a long downswing is potentially enough to cause people to abandon winning methods/systems. I've recently come off a downswing of 50 bets which was pretty disheartening even if it was expected.

ooof - good points but more importantly BOL turning around that downswing and here's to greener pastures ahead.

Thanks. I'm only trialling it and only lasted 14 days but it seemed like an eternity. Having all the run good at the beginning is great of course and infinitely better than starting with a vicious downswing.

Model update. I bought 4 nov 02 45 puts at 0.76 as hedge until things are more clear. Position up big today. Will liquidate later everything if it makes sense.

It depends on whether you care whether these bets are representative of the population of bets you will be making throughout your career. Also, frequentism sucks.

masque, gtfo. BFI has a trading thread.

This is a challenge thread though and i am here to stay until all the haters are friends or worshipers across the entire galaxy, the local group and the rest of the visible universe, the one beyond the horizon also and the supposedly pending my endorsement megaverse out there.

Out of both positions today probably premature on the calls given then explosion that takes place today but i had to because i do not like to hold things so close to expiration if i get the move that works. Calls out at 1.4 (damn it could have been >1.8 but at 0.7 yesterday it looked good at 1.4) and puts out at 0.23 to not let them go to zero as they hedge nothing now so far from their strike with 3 days left.

Current position 100% cash at 1409 up 41% so far in the first adventure.

No one cares. Make a separate thread. You're derailing.

No i am not derailing it, i am just showing what he never did when Brian challenged him.

All trades are real and provable and that is why they are not perfect but they do get the result.

To get to 6x i now need a 4.28x and have used 20 days so far.

Brian didn't challenge me. I offered the bet.
The bet is not concluded. It is a year for a reason, rather than a month or 3 months.
You're not even posting entries and exits in real time so your trades are worthless.
I find you hilariously aspie though so if you can endure the howls of the haters while tard-posting your trades, hey, it's a free country.

Also, Brian would have been $1000 poorer had I not been in my penthouse spa at 2pm on Friday.

receipts

You can fake pretty much everything. Real time entries and exits are the gold standard. Receipts help a little.

I was talking about your penthouse spa, but ya

Photos of a hot girl in said spa holding a sign calling DoOrDoNot an assclown?

Photos of my bedroom with my computer with 2p2 on it? (it's obviously a luxury penthouse when you see it)?

Good enough?

How about just win the bet? Amusing you can be on 2+2 all day, every day but couldn't have been bothered to post a for sure winning trade in here which takes maybe a minute. Seems simple enough.