Tooth is finally going to open a real money account. We have a bet that he can't get it from a $1k deposit to $5k by the end of 2018.

I'm starting to doubt whether he can actually open an account.

is this real??


so is the bet he can't go from 1k to 5k?


what odds are you laying

if he's going to post real time trades why don't you just take $500 and invest the way he is??? (or half of the bet if you are betting significantly more) seems like an arbitrage opportunity. I don't understand why he wouldn't just invest the money if he thinks his avg return is high instead of the bet unless it's solely for pride.

i've got 500 bucks to someone's 400 that he fails

go go goooooo!

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I know this is just to get a line going, I'll put 150 to your 500, w escrow

It's $1K to $6K.
$1000 is a meaningless amount of money, this is just for fun. Brian and I were having extended disagreements about the nature of risk and return, so I offered to take 2:1 odds (my $500 to his $1000) that I couldn't turn $1K into $6K by the end of the year. As a rational person, he snapped called - the odds if I have no edge have to be 5:1 at least I would say (I haven't run the math), and Brian, being a rational, numbers based fellow who follows orthodoxy, believes that no one has edges that large.

I think I'm about 95% to get there. That's what makes this bet sweet - we both think we are taking by far the best of it, so it's going to painful to pride if either of us lose.

I offered to post real time trades on 2p2 but Brian wanted a play money account, for reasons I can't quite understand. I pointed out how easily these are gamed and offered to make a secondary real money account with $1000 in it. I'll post real time as well.

So that's where the bet is. It's a duel between gentleman at 1000 paces on my shooting ability and in a sense on market efficiency, which Brian mostly believes in I think (bar maybe edges of double SPY return or something), and I don't.

I don't know what a fair line is - 5:1 maybe? syndr0me's offer above seems pretty generous.

It's till generous but it was stated it was 1k to 5k

How much action are you willing to sell at 2:1 against you turning 1k into 6k in a year?

It's a bet between me and Brian to settle our differences like men do - with money.

If I think I can turn 1k in 6k with high probability then it's -EV for me to bet 2:1, relative to alternative uses for that money, so I'm not taking more action. Looks like others are willing to take side bets though if you want some action.

Maybe you're +ev at 2:1 but no way you think you're 95%. There isn't just free money up for grabs in the market

If you're reliably making 100%/year with absolutely zero risk of ruin due to very fractional bet sizing, as I believe you're doing? - then making 600%/year with substantial risk of ruin follows automatically as close to a lock.

I mean, 20x all your bet sizes on your low volatility bets and tell me how your average year comes out?

I'm enjoying the math fails at this.

What is "very fractional"?

Is tooth allowed to trade cryptocurrency?

Maybe hes talking about Kelly Criterion

Somehow I doubt someone with a semblance of understanding of KC would describe it as "very fractional". But I wouldn't expect someone with a math degree to use that terminology either.

Regardless this is amusing.

Why is this bet supposed to be illegal? Did they make it at Bushwood?

Mihkel has Aspergers I think; there seems to be something wrong with how his brain works and he can't parse language or pick up context cues like normal people do. People think he's a troll, but he's really just one of those weird aspies you'd come across in real life who go on stupid nitty tangents thinking they're smarter than others, while missing the point, and everyone is embarrassed for them.

Fractional
adjective

1. relating to or expressed as a fraction
2. small or tiny in amount, especially in relative terms

A non-aspie would instantly pick up that I mean the second from the context.

What this means for the Aspies among us is that jb has bet sizing that is very fractional (i.e. a very very small amount of his total bankroll), and he's making 100% year doing this with zero RoR. So there's clearly scope for drastically increasing return relative to bankroll if you're willing to increase RoR.

TS,

Apologies if you're just horrendous at English, but the joke is that there is no need for a modifier to "fractional" since it would be like modifying unique when it has a specific meaning so that it renders "very unique" "super unique" "moderately unique" amusing to people who're fluent in English.

Are there any rules on what can be traded? I wouldn't be shocked if he can buy some illiquid turd, wipe out the order book, and flip it to his other account for 6x.

Yeah if we're gonna book some bets we should get some ground rules or someone to judge. As in no manipulation with other accounts, or have like a max risk per trade rule. It'll be boring if he risks 90% on one trade at binks it right away.

At the very least we'll get to see some TS trades with receipts for a while

If I was going to game this I would have simply accepted Brian's stipulation that he wants a play money account (you can get delayed data play money accounts) rather than real time posted trades here. Instead I offered a real money account + real time posted trades so it was beyond doubt.

It's no fun if I don't do this straight up and humiliate Brian that way. That's the whole point. There are no stipulations on bet sizing, I can bet whatever I want up to what's in the account. I'll likely be doing this in one or two trades, which is why I wanted a year for it. Low risk, high return trades happen at best once or twice a month, less often in low volatility.

I'll be trading options on big cap mostly, no pennies.

edit to add: cryptos, crypto derivatives like GBTC, ETFs/leveraged ETFs are out. This will be done using options on >$1 billion market cap stocks only. That should set the ground rules for any side betting, give somewhat longer odds as well.

Another stipulation: No option buys with > 2 weeks to expiry. This is trading only and not holding/long bets.

Another stipulation: No sell to open. It'd be >50% to sell OOTM puts five times a row for the $6K, with the downside blowing up your account of course.

Damn, this is easy to game without rules. But I think the above should cover it all.

i want to bet, but this is getting too sloppy.


of course TS should be able to bet any amount on any trade
of course TS should be able to bet on anything offered on IBB/Etrade/ameritrade etc.

let him bet on anything he wants.

He's apparently setting the rules so it seems like he's just saying he won't do these things rather than him not being allowed. But yeah, I'd bet probably either side at reasonable price just for ****s.