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Originally Posted by Sportsfanx1
Ah, so maybe "trading" really isn't "the worst possible way to make money relative to time and energy invested" as you once put it?
Yes, absolutely. The vast vast majority will lose (far more than poker), and for the guys talented enough, they could make great money doing something else.
It's a simple EV equation.
(99% won't be a big winner) * (10x normal wage if you're great) = 0.1x normal wage for the same time invested. It's stupid.
You're 100% to not be a big winner without decent intelligence. Which makes it even dumber for these people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportsfanx1
Hey Tooth, I'd throw my hat into the "make a bet" mix. While 3 months doesn't necessarily prove anything one way or the other, I'd do a heads up trading bet on Weekly Options, and see who has the better return? It'd be fun for both us and the masses.
Expiring Weekly Options only, post trade confs at the end of the week (I've got an IB account I could use for this, so that we'd be on the same platform), start with $25k in the account, who ever has a larger account balance at the end of 3 months wins $5k (or something along those lines?).
Trader vs Trader, heads up?
This feels like it's trying too hard. I'm in this for fun and education. I guess a rule like "winner gets half of loser's stack" could be fun if we're both up a bunch. Sets up some crazy expectation trades near the end. But I dunno how to ensure neither of us are getting freerolled, or how to find a reliable escrow for large sums of money. Maybe Mat would do it for a fee with a multisig bitcoin address. Then we can hodl as well.
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Expiring Weekly Options only, post trade confs at the end of the week
Real time posted trades would be mandatory. End of week trade confirmations can be faked. That's a pain in the ass as I've discovered this year (the last thing I want to do when in a 10K trade is loading up 2p2 and posting within a minute), but maybe we can make it work. Maybe we can let a trusted party log in to our real money accounts to verify, like a Sklansky, again for a fee. So maybe that can work. But I think real time posted trades need to be part of it for the sweat/verification value.
So I dunno. The above isn't fun for me, and I don't know you. But we might be able to come up with something for proper money that's fun and secure. Post a few more real time trades around this forum yourself maybe and I'll warm up to the idea.