There must be some time frame where you'd attribute the movement to factors outside the scope of your thesis in which case selling for a loss would just be passing on an even higher value opportunity than you originally thought it would be.

Discarding the hypothesis after an hour seems pretty fast for something based on fundamentals. What was the rationale?

Fear.

C'mon mr. 2007 reg date you're better than that.

Tooth was previously banned under Truthsayer and maybe another name.

Non sequitur. The irony here is that you're 11.5 months into trading thread and struggled to post a single trade in a year with both high and low volatility, while saying other people don't trade. Meanwhile, you donk around posting walls of texts everyday, bloating this thread to 30 pages without a single damn trade. Win or lose, BFI knows you're not a trader and have no balls.

Dude, like I said, if you think I'm cherry-picking, create your own trading thread. You are the self proclaimed BFI Though Leader after all. And no, if you're 2-3 minutes late posting a multi-hour/day trade, we won't discredit you.

I guess when the trade is confirmed, you can't pretend to still be in the trade, wait for it to go in your direction, then announce to 2p2 how great you are, even if it only goes an inch in your favor. Should've let it ride just like your AAPL trade

The first bolded makes no sense. I just made a bunch of confirmed trades yesterday that Brian saw. Unless we're the same person, gg your theory. It's really weird that you think someone would spend years here discussing stocks and not trade. What the **** is the point of that???

The second also makes no sense. I'm offering bets to people who claim I don't even have a real money trading account, and now posting lower probability trades which will be ridiculed if they don't win. I'm combative in a way where I'd look like an idiot if I was wrong/invite attacks. I risk thousands of dollars every day, sometimes $50K+, on weekly expiring options. I travel the world without the security of a home life or stable job. That's pretty much the opposite of someone with no balls, no? Who has bigger balls:

- The guy offering bets and doing the above
- The guy declining bets while slurring strangers on the Internet and living a nice safe life with wifemother?

Finally, the length of this thread is due to losers like you wanting to take a shot. I was minding my own business, happy to let the year play out and post lower probability stuff at the end if no high probability multibaggers came up, but the tards came in here swinging as early as November, and got owned. I want this thread to be about trading, risk, return, market edges, I couldn't care less about all this ****. But if a loser wants to come in and get convinced I don't even trade, I'll be glad to make sport of them.
The thought leader thing is a joke. Everyone (including me) was saying how stupid/pretentious the term is. And there's no need for a new thread, I can go back through 2018 and quote every trade/trade idea. The large majority are winners with a lot of big winners.

But sure. I'll create a trading thread if you want to put some money down? I'd love to escrow some money with you on next year's bet with Brian. It'll probably be three months long instead of a year, a year is too long. Should be easy for you. As you can see, this one isn't going very well so far.
The trade is already confirmed. And I'm straight up honest in everything I do. I'm not an angle shooter. Nor is there any evidence of same.

Dude you are so insecure. Ballers are usually too busy ballin to be compelled to respond to every single post from a hater. The fact that you seem to need to speaks volumes.

You're confusing insecurity with the sport of frustrating and gaslighting people.

And I never claimed to be a baller. I travel the world's beautiful places living in luxury and trading weekly expiring stock options and have been doing this for years. Sometimes with a hot smart girl. That's not baller unless you're living in Kansas with a wifemother.

Baller is planes and hot cars and parties and hot tubs full of skanky girls. Not my scene. My girls do ballet, not prostitution, and I much prefer quiet villas overlooking St Jean Cap Ferat to partying in Cannes.

And yes I loled at your Bahamas stuff. Enjoy the holiday bro.

I can't imagine being so invested in an internet forum that I would post over five, 100 word, posts a day.

I bet every top trader is flaming noobs like candykreep and very heavily invested in how the internet views them.

Lol.

Hey, I'm posting this while looking out over a magnificent fjord. It amuses me.

As for posting, I could be say, needing to study, not the subject of a thread and yet have 73 posts in it full of weird (and now proven wrong) conspiracy theories about someone who doesn't even matter.

The four baying losers who keep bumping this and have nothing to do with the bet make up more posts than the two people actually in the bet. Says it all really.

Yeah these two sentence posts are really eating up my time. Hard to see how a guy who is to busy to post his real time trades can instead throw out long-winded posts every hour on the hour.

I'm enjoying this because I know I'm owning your head space without much effort. You're religiously protective of this fake internet persona you created for yourself. I would laugh harder if I didn't feel so bad for you. I can't imagine living a life where the basis of my existence is what random people think of me on a side forum that is connected with a dying game. Kinda sad if you think about it.

Turtle, you’re trying way too hard.

I am indeed a noob. But I don’t give two ****s about how anyone on this forum views me. The fact that I post my results, trade approaches, etc, and open myself up to ridicule is because I know there are far more experienced traders on here (yes, even TS - count me among those who think your non-trader theory of him is a little unhinged.) I’d rather come across as an idiot and glean something from it than stay quiet and learn nothing.

Turtletom, post some pictures of your wife holding a sign that says bfi. Also gonna need some pay slips to prove that she supports you. While we are at it, post your University invoice along with study material.

Turtle, you're so sure of the things you've posted, but won't take a bet for free money. If you disregard this as a side forum connected to a dying game, why stick around?

Yeah this is the best stock forum on the Internet by far. It's not even close. So much broad talent and breadth of opinion.

I wish we had more discussions/trades/theses though. I guess it's pretty normal to die off when valuations are maxed out at the end of a bull, and the bear hasn't really set in yet. No one is around posting their "FB moon" analysis when it's $150 instead of $25. It's like that for most stocks I think...the value has been found and thoroughly bought up until the next economic cycle.

LOL!!!!!!!!!! Everytime there is a discussion you dominate it with your extremely trollish behavior. It's why I barely post here anymore because it just isn't worth it.

Tooth is one of the douchiest douchebags on the entire internet but for those of you questioning his authenticity I believe he is legit. He knows trading and is accomplished at doing what he does in the markets. But if you don't do it his way with his approach? Then he will relentlessly attack you and never stop. I guess some people just can't accept that there is more than one way to skin a cat. Many of his and my approaches overlap greatly but he would never admit to it since he must always be attacking and degrading anyone who may have a different slant. There are infinite ways to approach the markets and trade successfully in infinite trading vehicles with infinite time frames. His longer term calls are notoriously bad but he catches lots of good short term swings on news events. and market volatility The same news events where I use a technical approach to catch often the very same moves sometimes even quicker. But I am too old to argue with internet trolls and it isn't a useful way to enjoy life. Arguing on the internet seems to be Toothlesses only form of joy so to each his own. I love talking trading but with Tooth dominating every discussion on this forum it is impossible.

There's only 1 mystery left to figure out.

Is ToothSayer also NerdPuncher?

I find it hilarious that people actually still think he doesn't trade even after Brian provided a confirmation.

Is there something about the demographic of 2p2 in that causes people to go full ****** and tilt from reading TS posts? I don't even think it is just TS either; other posters like Henry17, Yowsers, rsigley or Wil have also caused full on ****** tilt from anonymous forum posting.

How the heck do you people even play winning poker or get an edge betting on sports if you tilt so hard against anonymous posts?

Lol exactly this. It's a goddamn BFI thread on a poker forum.

I'd love to see the amount of posts he has on actual finance forums. When you add all of that up it's difficult to imagine having the time to profitably trade while admiring fjords and banging smart girls in hot tubs.

Exactly this which is why there are so many people scrutinizing him.

Tooth has been banned like 5 times, lol. Another handle he had was soothsayer. I wasn't going to bring his bans up because I genuinely feel bad for the guy. I know this forum is his life. These forums were modded tighter up to '11. Bull**** is much more rampant than in years gone by because of it.

I think his bans were for racism. He was basically a laughing stock in this forum and politics. Times change.

My original reg date would be ~04. Made a new handle when I got a new computer and couldn't access email to restore.

I was obviously referencing the implication that tooth and Brian are the same person.

Turtle, people like you are often projecting a lot of their own insecurities when they rail on another individual. Is it possible that you are an unsuccessful trader who's had multiple accounts banned??

Really doesn't seem like a stretch based on your posts

You know someone is obsessed with you, not to mention incompetent, when they have to deliberately lie to get attention.

65 off topic posts in this thread later, all turtletom has managed to do is make himself look like a dishonest, obsessed and not-too-bright ex girlfriend.

Since he's been thoroughly owned, mostly by himself, there's not much more to say.

I enjoy your trading wisdom but when I question you on your bare assertions about technical analysis, it meets a brick wall. When I try to move the discussion in the way of hard facts, noise correction, and math, it meets a brick wall.

You seem to want to assert your way to "technical analysis is great bro! It's better than news because the news is captured by the technicals!" which is a silly position for a lot of reasons, not least of which being that there are a large amounts of technical patterns even in random walks. When I try to explore any of this, even basic noise correction which no one in technicals seems to want to do, you have no answer. The conversion got so silly as to have people claiming they can exploit random walks, which is lol and just shows how ridiculous and stupid it all is.

Technical analysts are laughed at by the very smart people who make real money pushing tiny edges with lots of capital and millions of times the data crunching ability of humans, quants. You seem to think there are edges purely in price/volume charts with no other information large enough to matter to your alpha and rely on for trading setups, that these army of $200+ billion backed quants aren't taking advantage of, despite it being a purely mathematical/data crunching problem and their entries being much faster than you. You aren't credible when you claim this.

I know you traded commodities and I'm sure you have an edge there (there ARE technical patterns in commodities markets according to the research, which don't exist in equities), but it's my belief you have zero edge in equities and are spouting pure nonsense.

If you want to open a thread where you post technical trade ideas, why not do it? I'll even stay out of it. The trouble with them is that technicals attract total idiots because technicals are ubiquitous, easy to grasp and highly confirmation biasing, so you end up with pure noise rather than alpha.