Technical analysis thread - Page 3 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1H2l0NE1/

just keep it simple.

Divergences galore on all the big coins right now in crypto...even mega-bears should consider some swing longs here.

hey u was spot on, could u show what you think will happen next? thx

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01-30-2019 , 04:38 PM

#52

Duffman08

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,011

Quote:

Originally Posted by ECTAE

hey u was spot on, could u show what you think will happen next? thx

dunno, this is probably one of the hardest ranges to trade in crypto in the past 2-3 years.

If you a believer in BTC or some other coins long-term...not bad areas to slowly buy SPOT but I wouldn't try to trade this mess right now (even alt-coin signals are incredibly choppy).

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06-26-2019 , 01:42 PM

#53

CandyKreep

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 6,402

I figured I would ask this here, since it is somewhat TA centric, rather than clutter things up with a new thread.

Say that you have a day trading approach that you have back tested and found to be profitable over the last 50 trades (6 months) with just a standard risk/reward of 1:1... How much more would you back test before giving it a shot with real money?

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06-26-2019 , 04:38 PM

#54

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,486

A good fx example is 100 trades per strategy per currency pair per time frame. So testing a few strategies would take at least 1k hours.

You'll almost certainly find sizable variance among different samples of 50 trades.

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06-27-2019 , 10:01 AM

#55

CandyKreep

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 6,402

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinkmann

This isn't for FX. It's on the e-mini S&P futures

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06-27-2019 , 01:30 PM

#56

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,486

Ok, so if you haven't done hundreds of hours of back testing at a minimum then its not even close to enough imo. Obv its different if you are betting 10$/trade for fun vs taking a 10k+ deposit trying to consistently profit.

Last edited by Pinkmann; 06-27-2019 at 01:49 PM.

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07-25-2019 , 03:54 PM

#57

Zenzor

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,420

This guy live streams every morning for ~2 hours. He trades Bitcoin (exclusively) on a "streamer account" in which he's run up around a quarter million dollars from I think ~$10k in the past 2 years and shows his trades every stream on his Derbit account.

I only watch his stream on occasion but it seems like what he does actually works. Most of his trades are based on EMA's coupled with a few other indicators (no pattern trading). He could be running game but I don't see how that's possible unless Deribit allows users to remove trades from their trading history.

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07-25-2019 , 04:25 PM

#58

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,486

Its always impossible to know if someone is a legit winner. I guess you just have to watch a ton of their content and make your own judgement. That takes more time than its worth usually.

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07-25-2019 , 04:47 PM

#59

Zenzor

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,420

Are you saying 2 years is an insufficient sample size to determine whether he's +EV? If he's showing his trades and trade history during live streams, I don't know how his results could be doctored.

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07-25-2019 , 05:22 PM

#60

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,486

Yeah if you know 100% that the results cant be doctored and its meaningful sample of trades and you know its his only account. Also the nature of the trades themselves would be of interest. Like I said, its usually more effort than its worth.

I dont really care to debate whether this guy is legit or not. If you like his content then by all means learn from it.

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07-26-2019 , 11:08 AM

#61

whoisthewomanme

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 34

He's a fraud just trying to sling courses on YT.

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07-26-2019 , 11:44 AM

#62

CandyKreep

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 6,402

Quote:

Originally Posted by whoisthewomanme

He's a fraud just trying to sling courses on YT.

Devil's advocate though - most frauds aren't live streaming while they're trading in real time. And just because someone is selling a course on the side, it doesn't automatically make them a fraud. Although, I don't know why anyone would buy it when the guy has a ton of free content.

I'm not a fan of Stochs or RSI, but I actually like his use of MAs. Oftentimes you see people with multiple MAs trying to play crossovers, which almost always gets you in and out too late, but he uses it more as dynamic support/resistance, which I've tended to use them for as well.

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07-26-2019 , 01:06 PM

#63

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,486

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. A lot of these guys are not 100% frauds and do have things to teach, but I highly doubt his previously mentioned deribit trading results are his standard EV.

Bottom line is that anyone who has trading courses on sale for thousands makes more money off of that than trading itself. You can classify this as a fraud if you like since its extremely difficult to do this without being at least a little disingenuous.

The pure frauds are the easiest ones to spot, usually with an instagram like Dan Blitz...cars, planes, women, and account balance screenshots.

Last edited by Pinkmann; 07-26-2019 at 01:13 PM.

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07-26-2019 , 01:11 PM

#64

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

If he's trying to sell courses then he sucks at trading. The end. Not that it matters.

$10K to $250K in an item up 10x and back down and then 4x again (and from where he started), you'd expect one in 10 or so to make that kind of 25x return with trading, provided very low spread and fees which bitcoin has. It's meaningless. Add in the fact that we have no idea to what extent he considers fundamentals, and this is a stone cold zero evidence for TA. Successful hedge fund managers have used astrology - it was big in the 90s and is still big in Asia (things like I-Ching to pick stocks). Does that mean astrology works?

Last edited by ToothSayer; 07-26-2019 at 01:19 PM.

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07-26-2019 , 06:43 PM

#65

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 22,811

There is actually compelling data supporting moon phases as a market predictor

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07-27-2019 , 01:57 PM

#66

Zenzor

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

If he's trying to sell courses then he sucks at trading. The end. Not that it matters.

$10K to $250K in an item up 10x and back down and then 4x again (and from where he started), you'd expect one in 10 or so to make that kind of 25x return with trading, provided very low spread and fees which bitcoin has. It's meaningless. Add in the fact that we have no idea to what extent he considers fundamentals, and this is a stone cold zero evidence for TA. Successful hedge fund managers have used astrology - it was big in the 90s and is still big in Asia (things like I-Ching to pick stocks). Does that mean astrology works?

What sample size would convince you that his trading methodology is profitable vs the market? I don't think fundamental analysis is involved. His strategy appears to consider only a few things 1) long-term trend identification (not shorting bull markets and vice versa), 2) playing options based on major moving average support/resistance levels, 3) a couple other indicators.

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