It's so obvious he (taleb) hasn't really given much thought to what he's talking about that it's hard to be critical of anyone but the show for bringing him on. He's stumbling over words when talking about even basic concepts.

That people are overly confident in rationalizing risks away because they tend to see what they want to see doesn't mean every prediction of impending doom has merit.



>99%!

"Is this a shot at Taleb? I'm no fan, mostly because he's ugly, but the notion that we know less than we think we do, that expertise is pure bull**** in many fields, and that error bars should be set broader in complex potentially fragile systems all seem correct to me. "

Curious, who are you a fan of TS?

Who, in your opinion, are some names that are worthy of admiration and listening to?

And don't say Trump.

building extra muscles will only weaken your existing muscles, stick to a healthy diet and you will do just fine

Liberal snowflake scientists, amirite?

Use steroids bro

You won't get an answer to this since it's no1. In this thread TS basically sh*t all over PhD's that publish in peer-reviewed journals mentioning that 80% of studies or whatever are unreliable and do not get replicated. He thinks scientists are a joke and level 1 fish.


He trashes Musk and considers Buffet the OMC nit of investing.

Not saying he's wrong, but this guy basically think's everyone is a cuck

For the "a correction is going to happen very soon" camp, what percentage would you give for this to happen within the next, lets say, 18 months?

bout 3.50%

wait wat?

pretty sure this is real business cycle stuff

we going down

Loch Ness Monster playing the markets now?

What percentage do you give it then?


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Rand - Be sure to give us the precise entry point to get back in the market that will result in better returns than if we just kept on investing as normal.

Such a smart ass. I am not predicting anything. The distinction is small, but it is probabilistic not deterministic. IMO the most likely outcome is a recession that maybe hits its cycle lows a year from now. So maybe the markets bottom around the end of August / September next year. We will see. I'll gladly share my thoughts with this forum and your sarcastic @ss when the time comes.

This is a pretty hard question to answer. I am no Kyle Bass. I don't have data on China or US auto loans.

Let's say we do see recession play out over the next year (cyclically this is due IMO). Then there are two main scenarios:

1. It is just that. We could see sideways, steady selling, or some combination of the two depending on the severity of credit contraction / deflation. So to put a number to it 20 - 30 % is like SPY 250 - 200.

2. Same as one, but with some six sigma catalyst(s): the failure of LTCM or sub prime, etc. This could turn a vulnerable market into an ugly one. 2008 saw the major indices cut in half for instance. So 25 - 50% correction could see SPY to 225 - 150.

My opinion, its not about valuations because those capitalize a revenue stream based on past performance. There are so many feedback loops in capital markets and a modern economy. Market swings overshoot the mean. They approximate the mean by probing the extremes.

As liquidity dries up, credit contracts, rates rise, capital assets drop in price. Falling capital assets, more expensive debt, less discretionary spending. Rinse wash repeat until it turns.

I have no idea if something is going to break w/ the financials or if this is just a rather mundane breather for the consumer's balance sheet.

But I will say this. Washington seems determined to break China. And if their economy is as much smoke and mirrors as it appears to be, I think they will.

I do not really understand the implications of this, but I think they could be big.

I misunderstood this bc I read it out of context. We have already had a 10% correction. So 100% there.

I'm just making this up but:
-the odds that the lows are in for the next 365 days < 10%
-the odds the highs are in for the next 365 days > 50%
-the odds we make about a 25% correction (+/- 5% and stop there) IDK maybe > 50 %
-the odds we make a 50% correction, maybe like 10%

The above, that is pretty much a steaming hot pile of BS. But its the best I've got. I think the important take away is the China stuff, how crude has traded, and the hawkish Fed.

If DB goes to zero, or the EU fines AAPL GOOGL and AMZN into oblivion, Trump targets AMZN and GOOGL for anti trust. People abandon FB in droves, I mean it can get ugly fast. No one buys new iPhones. NFLX loses market share to DIS, etc.

This rally was like on the backs of the FAANGs. Whats gonna happen if BA falters. All you've got left is XLV?

Thought this would be interesting to share in light of the thread topic... It's impossible to predict timing, but a rotation from growth to value does seem overdue and just because the Nasdaq stocks may get killed per Taleb's assumptions doesn't mean there aren't areas in the market that will produce positive returns in such a correction:

https://westwoodgroup.com/insight/va...one-listening/

Good share.



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Wow, over 50% huh. How hard are you shorting the market?


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Dude, you're always going on about being patient and waiting for better spots. I just thought this would be the perfect opportunity for you announce one of those spots.

Twitter war with Nate Silver is lit

Silver for the win by a mile.

Actually, I am looking for a lower high rn. But do believe we will make lower lows. Im not sure how all the seasonality will plat into tihngs. Generally, there is tax loss selling and then the January affect.

Wait, that makes sense. Rally into Thanksgiving, tax loss selling into Xmas, rally in January. Sell in Feb.

Thanks giving and G20.

I'd say look out below if the US and China leave that meeting pissed off at each other.

I'm concerned about you.