In my younger years I would've put 4X my net worth in STZ which is what I did in Apple back in the day which is why I dont have to work and only play poker once a week. STZ has everything going for it. They have the fastest growing beer brands by far with Corona and Modelo. In fact those are the only two major beer brands that are growing. That's why you see 90% corona and modelo adds during the WSOP and NBA finals. Budweiser and Coors have really cut back their marketing.

A $35 billion company earnings 2-3 Billion a year is cheap. Especially when you consider where they are focusing all that cash. It's not a matter of whether they will be #1 in cannabis as they already are with a 35% market share in Canada through Canopy Growth (a riskier direct cannabis play). It's a question much like the aforementioned tech companies of whether anyone else can compete. So far there is only one major competitor with enough cash to take them on in Altria/Chronos

STZ even has control over the #2 US cannabis company Acreage Holdings through a deal which allows Canopy to buy Acreage as soon as federally legalized and possibly earlier. When the deal goes through Acreage shareholders will get .581 shares of Canopy for every share of Acreage. This is a premium of over 40%.

Immediately after this deal was annouced I went from 75% STZ 25% CGC to 50% STZ 50% ACRGF
Now I have adjusted to 42.5% STZ 42.5% ACRGF 15% UBER as a "small" bet on driveless cars which could nonetheless make $1 mil. Driveless cars in 10 years or so will drive down the cost of Uber rides by perhaps 80%. This will make it uneconomical to own cars giving the entire market to Uber and Lyft.

There is so much to unpack here that's dumb/wrong.

Firstly, Uber drivers in many places currently make about the cost of depreciation. Given that, how do you see an 80% cost reduction taking out the driver????

Secondly, why do you think Uber and Lyft will own this market? They won't get there first on autonomy and whoever does will set the terms, especially given, as you note, "80% cost reductions". Why would they give some cucks with an app a good portion of their revenue rather than have their own app? GM for example currently has an internal ride hailing app for autonomous point-to-point anywhere in the city, which its employees use. That will go public shortly. Google has their own app for their early rider autonomous taxi test program in Phoenix.

Why would some hopelessly non-sticky, no-barrier-to-entry app makers take over autonomous taxis? There's zero reason to think they would. Avis is more likely than Uber and Lyft to do well out of autonomous driving since they have the size and operations needed to care for autonomous fleets. Uber is a bunch of bad tempered software nerds with no capital who get drivers to do everything for them (cleaning, warehousing, fueling) and no real operations.

I have 15 cars that I rent on turo as my #4 business my top three being real estate stocks and poker. The average depreciation on my cars is 8 cents per mile plus 1 cent per mile for repairs. One day I may decide to get hundreds of driverless taxis. I think I know the numbers a bit better than you.

Anyway the entire point of the post was stz. If you see a guy playing the main event with a corona shirt on just know that the stock market paid for his main event buyins for life with plenty left over to raise a family none of whom work.

I'm interested in hearing more about your Turo business

There have been numerous authoritative studies done on the cost per mile of taxi operation. Driver wages are less than half the cost of operating a typical taxi and Uber drivers make less than taxi drivers in many places - and their wages cover fuel, insurance, maintenance, depreciation. There's no fat on the bone to be cut here.

You clearly have ZERO clue what you're talking about if you think

That's just comical bro. Zero clue at all.

A blind monkey made a fortune from the stock market if they started a decade ago with half a million. It's called a long bull run. The chest puffing is also comical. You should welcome people who come at you if you're a rational investor, you've had a good pick or three and think you know what you're doing when you don't (for example, your reasoning on Uber is like a train wreck).

STZ is a very nice stock. Solid growth at a good P/E. Perhaps one of the few good buy and holds in this inflated market. How does it do in a recession/market correction? Do you think this is the cheapest you'll get it in the next 5 years?

Olaf, It can be profitable in the right market. I however am not since I live in a city of only 100K people. I moved here for the weekly 10-25 game which is perfect for me because I would rather not play more than once a week in my old age (by poker standards) anyway. I have about 75% of the Turo market here. We considered moving to SF to rent 50-100 cars but it's not a good place to raise kids.

Toothsayer, did you know the federal government reimburses you I believe 50 cents a mile for auto expenses? This includes brand new p.o.s american cars that need a new tranny at 60K miles. It has no bearing on actual costs of a well managed fleet of reliable high mileage vehicles many of which can operate under 5 cents a mile. Just like the degen baccarat player which account for the 99.9% of gamblers who are -EV is unrelated to our win rates.

Look up a 2011 Prius with 130K miles on it on kbb. Then compare to a 2010 Prius with 160K miles. The difference in value is the depreciation you would take over a one year rental with 30K miles. $500 or 1.6 cents per mile. Likely 1/10 the depreciation of your taxis in your study along with 1/2 the fuel cost and 1/2 the maintenance. There's no fat to be cut? Clearly you are the one who doesn't know what he's talking about.

BTW I had 50K liquid 7 years ago not half a million. Plus a few underwater rental properties. It's true investing is not hard. Just like beating the nosebleed live games at Aria that Antonio plays in isn't hard. But how many 10-25 players out there have the balls to withdraw 200K to fire a couple bullets in the 200-400 game? I sure don't. The analogy I like to give is that business is like a war. When one side is obviously going to win you only need to recognize it early and bet big. As a starcraft player it's the moment when I know I've won but my opponent hasnt yet. One minute later it's gg.

You are actually losing money or just losing money on paper when you do your taxes because of the generous mileage reimbursement?

Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Would be interesting to see more numbers on Turo rentals. My opinion was most of the rentals are the same as Uber, the 'business owner' loses everything that comes in to depreciation. They just don't feel it since they can't/won't do the math on costs, or they consider depreciation already accounted for since the business is effectively a side hobby.

The ride sharing companies have been around less than a modern vehicle life cycle, which helps a lot to disguise what is actually happening.

You're a clown bro. 5c per mile costs. $500 depreciation per year AND 30,000 miles. There's no point talking with the equivalent of a flat earther on taxi/car costs. You should become a billionaire upending the entire business model of the taxi industry with your claims.

Even if your claims were true they're irrelevant to the business model of Uber/the cost savings possible by taking the driver out on a larger scale, which is what we were talking about.
Yeah man, you're the Sun Tzu of investing.

Thanks 4 the tip putting half my networth on this. other half in crypto lol. I really like the direction of this company