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Old 02-06-2017, 04:22 PM   #26
Two SHAE
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Re: SnapChat IPO

^^

https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/02/slowchat/

Key chart:



People absolutely love snapchat, but it is going to be hard to compete with Facebook/instagram who just copied their main feature.

The fact that they admit they "may never be profitable" is pretty scary.

Last edited by Two SHAE; 02-06-2017 at 04:32 PM.
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Old 02-06-2017, 04:44 PM   #27
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Re: SnapChat IPO

I agree with the board consensus that Snap seems over priced (assuming the 25 Billion valuation is correct) they are pricing in extreme growth and, to use a sailing term, Facebook (via Instagram and FB main) will simply apply cover to Snap by copying their every unique move.

Facebook also has the edge in owning its own servers, which gives it a cost of revenue of 14 cents per dollar of revenue and 2 dollars per monthly active user vs. Snap at 1.11 per revenue dollar and 3 dollars per monthly active user.

With that said, my friend is in digital marketing and says ppl in his industry are pretty bullish on SNAP (and by this I mean, the opportunity for a new form of advert, not that these ppl are actually looking at SNAP's prospectus), it will be interesting to how well SNAP/ Stories monetizes


Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...match-ipo-hype

I semi-grunched the thread and now see that Jvds pretty much laid out the cost argument earlier...

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Old 02-06-2017, 11:18 PM   #28
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by Two SHAE View Post
The fact that they admit they "may never be profitable" is pretty scary.
S-1's are written that way out of legal obligation.

If you were going public with a company focused on auto-fuel, you would have to disclose that electronic cars could eventually destroy your only source of revenue and leave you with $0 revenue.
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Old 02-07-2017, 07:06 PM   #29
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by DuckU View Post
I'm curious what people think about SnapChat's IPO, will it be a buy (e.g. Facebook, Amazon, Apple Netflix, Google, etc...) or a sell (e.g. GoPro, Twitter, etc..). Specifically do people see continued growth with ramp up of Spectacle or will it be a "flash in the pan" soon replaced by another app and Virtual Reality play with millennials Gen Xer's?

Here are the details from Business Insider
Snapchat released their financial details in its filing for an initial public offering on Thursday, February 2, 2017.

Snapchat's parent company Snap Inc. set in motion what could be the biggest tech flotation in years by revealing it generates over $400 million in annual sales and has 158 million people using its app on a daily basis.

The company filed for a $3 billion IPO, though that is a placeholder amount and certain to change as the company sets a price on the deal.

-In the filing, Snap disclosed that Snapchat has 158 million average daily active users as of the fourth quarter of 2016.

-It had annual revenue of $404.4 million in 2016, up from $58.6 million in 2015.

It plans to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SNAP.
Now that its financial statements are public, the company must wait 15 days before holding formal meetings, aka the IPO "roadshow," with investors. Snap is planning to list shares in March, and could fetch a valuation of as much as $25 billion, people familiar with the matter have said.
Spectacles will be pretty big imo. They don't have the creepy factor that google glass had. Priced right, every teenager in the US will own a pair of these at some point - and if their friends have a pair, your kids will have to have it too.
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Old 02-09-2017, 12:30 PM   #30
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by wopbabalubop View Post
Spectacles will be pretty big imo. They don't have the creepy factor that google glass had. Priced right, every teenager in the US will own a pair of these at some point - and if their friends have a pair, your kids will have to have it too.
Agreed.

The bull case for Snap is them being a monster consumer lifestyle brand (multiple successful products like spectacles), winning the AR race due to spectacles or both.

A game like Pokemon Go would have been even more immersive (and likely more dangerous) if you were seeing Pokemon through glasses on the street vs on your phone.

Not sure how likely either of those paths are to happen, but it is very clear that the app is thought of as one product of n products. Hence, the name change to Snap.
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Old 03-01-2017, 04:24 PM   #31
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Re: SnapChat IPO

lol Snap. All these Zuck-wannabe companies are full of jokes.

https://mic.com/articles/170019/leak...eos#.8SwPhvXtQ

Because Snapchat's news team was interested in partnering with Everytown — and because that editorial content partnership would come at no cost — the nonprofit no longer had any need to pay for Snapchat's ad services.

In mid-May, shortly after Saliterman became aware that another arm of Snapchat was effectively undercutting him on a client he'd been working to secure, he sent an email to Everytown.

"I just learned our News Team is doing a Live Story on National Gun Violence Awareness Day," Saliterman's message began. "I would urgently like to speak with you about advertising opportunities within the story, as there will be three ad slots. We are also talking to the NRA about running ads within the story."

In other words, if the nonprofit partnered with Snapchat's editorial department instead of paying the six-figure fee to promote its event through Snapchat's advertising department, it ran the risk of having its gun safety message countered by the NRA, which strongly opposes the reform Everytown promotes.
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Old 03-01-2017, 04:57 PM   #32
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Re: SnapChat IPO

Is anyone here attempting to buy shares through Fidelity's IPO channel? If you are, can you let me know if you get allocated any shares on Thursday? (Feel free to pm me or just reply)

I don't see myself getting allocated any meaningful shares via Fidelity and I'd only be interested in flipping out shares in the morning under the assumption they have some positive pop. (I'm not really expecting that, given how many shares are being floated and their overall size in general)
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:16 AM   #33
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by cicakman View Post
Shorting. Dumb and over valued
In reality this post sums SnapChat up very succinctly.

But we're so many levels removed from reality that this stock might actually be a buy. Which scares me to death.

I would still short the hell out of it, but I would be prepared at the end of the day to have to look myself in the mirror, shake my head, and wonder what the hell is going on.
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Old 03-02-2017, 12:07 PM   #34
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Re: SnapChat IPO

lol, if it opens at $24, it's already up $10B... not bad.
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Old 03-03-2017, 04:27 PM   #35
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Re: SnapChat IPO

Companies that don't make money do better in the stock market than ones that do.

I should've known this would go up bigly right away but I'm dumb. I hate the stock market.
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Old 03-03-2017, 06:16 PM   #36
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Re: SnapChat IPO

I imagine options are going to fly off the shelf next week.
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Old 03-03-2017, 06:28 PM   #37
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Re: SnapChat IPO

How does Snapchat make money? Do they have advertisements?
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Old 03-03-2017, 10:33 PM   #38
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by bigt2k4 View Post
How does Snapchat make money?
lol, they don't

Quote:
Do they have advertisements?
yeah
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Old 03-03-2017, 10:58 PM   #39
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post



yeah
Well, if they have ads they at least have the opportunity to make money unlike Twitter
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Old 03-03-2017, 11:13 PM   #40
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Re: SnapChat IPO

They have ads, but I don't see it as an effective ad platform unless they develop the app to something that doesn't even resemble what it currently is. I don't see any path to revenues that justify current valuations. But that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
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Old 03-03-2017, 11:17 PM   #41
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by bigt2k4 View Post
Well, if they have ads they at least have the opportunity to make money unlike Twitter
Twitter has more and better ad options than Snap.
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Old 03-04-2017, 03:02 AM   #42
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Re: SnapChat IPO

Snap is focusing on wearables and augmented reality going forward. Seems a decent direction to head.


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Old 03-04-2017, 09:04 AM   #43
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SnapChat IPO

I use Snap daily and never see adds. Only use it for chatting and sending pics/vids w friends though.

I see promoted tweets all the time on Twitter on the other hand, but almost always pretty irrelevant to me.

This guy, Ben Thompson, posts a lot of interesting tech analysis: https://stratechery.com/2017/snaps-apple-strategy/
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Old 03-04-2017, 11:05 PM   #44
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Re: SnapChat IPO

Sponsored Lens are where they are making a good chunk of their money I'd assume - those are crazy expensive.

I figure this is gonna go up for awhile then crash like GoPro
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Old 03-05-2017, 05:13 AM   #45
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Re: SnapChat IPO

By these valuation numbers for SNAP it would mean Instagram is easily worth over 100 billion. I don't think this company has a chance to be honest.

They are relying on Google cloud services, while Facebook is building an infrastructure and data centers around the world to power their services.
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Old 03-06-2017, 01:39 AM   #46
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by Rampage_Jackson2 View Post
They are relying on Google cloud services, while Facebook is building an infrastructure and data centers around the world to power their services.
Saying that Snap is someone inferior as a company because they use cloud services for their data centers is laughable.
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Old 03-06-2017, 01:42 AM   #47
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Re: SnapChat IPO

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Originally Posted by Larry Legend View Post
I imagine options are going to fly off the shelf next week.
The premium on those puts will be off the wall. Especially given that shares will be hard to borrow as well. Those brave enough to sell vol will likely do well up until their Q1 report.
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:20 AM   #48
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Re: SnapChat IPO

This is the first statement on their S-1 and their website

Quote:
Snap inc. is a camera company
wtf? It's an image sharing company. God knows why you would aspire to be a camera company because most camera companies are currently dying a slow death. The fact that they would lie in the first sentence of their S-1 raises immediate suspicion. The whole "tech wearables" industry is also dubious.

It's got some good things going for it. Good user growth, and more importantly - people spend a lot of daily time on snapchat, second only to facebook. Don't think is warrants the current valuation though, will definitely be getting super punished during the next recession.
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:38 AM   #49
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Re: SnapChat IPO

Snap has to be a very successful camera company to justify today's valuation. And they might have some chance at that if snapchat remains super popular and their hardware is the only (non-phone/tablet) hardware allowed to integrate with it

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Old 03-06-2017, 10:53 PM   #50
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Re: SnapChat IPO

What is SnapChat's endgame here?

It isn't some ditsy blonde covered in leopard images sticking out her Gene Simmon's Tongue to her BFF for a few seconds.
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