twofingerted,

you are clearly 2+2 poster 'actionzip54'. can you please stop or at least limit your terrible juvenile posting in this thread? maybe get laid?

LOL.

Arbitrage...lol. Rofl.

Lol 2nd time I've been accused of that.

Should I be flattered? Who are you btw? Don't think I have ever seen your name/ avatar.

PM bull market clearly over amirite?

Can't be the same ppl bc twofinger seems to like me while actionzip is some ****** that turned down a $2k freeroll to post a trading confirm.

Massive deflation would destroy you. Which is a very realistic scenario for the US right now.

So around 3:30 EST ($1750.00 gold) you post how you have been killing it all day.

Then around 4:15 EST ($1750.00 gold) you congratulate yourself on the sweet move.

You can't expect anyone to take that seriously.

You get the money when you sell the calls you phucing idiot and then you have to sweat until expiry because they are uncovered.

This joke account has got to stfu.

clearly

Nicely Done.

31520 Profit on Treasury trade

-11459 Loss on silver long

20,060 profit

He is not saying you can't make money this way, the point is what you have laid out is not arbitrage. Simple.

I think there is such thing as conceptual arbitrage. Where correlations can cause two things to be related enough and the conditions that led up to their pricing can be distorted enough where it's possible to create a situation that could be called arbitrage.

Arbitrage exists as a function of risk. There is always some risk so there is no such thing as arbitrage. You can't prove that something is arbitrage in practice but only in theory. Even things that seem pure have to be exploited and it's the exploitation that nullifies the definition because the things being exploited are too close in value.

The reason that only conceptual arbitrage can be proven is that the variables that go into them can have a positive expectation individually that make their total value exceed the risk of implementation and the exploitation of those two values(or more). If two prices are different in two markets of something that is supposed to be equally valued then it can't be proven that either thing is more or less valuable than the other thing as the difference is based on trying to target two inefficient markets or a group of inefficient markets. So what is being arbitraged is the lack of awareness of the people buying or selling whatever is being bought and sold. Conceptual arbitrage could involve two things that have a value both individually and in correlation that exceed the ability of the market to correct them.


If you had the ability to what I call "pie map" a group of assets(bonds,stocks,baseball cards whatever) and work out their corralations you could take a position that might have an expectation that allowed you to not lose under any scenerio in which the markets themselves were still fuctioning or you were still alive. If the baseline for what you wanted arbitrage to be was set at a condition of society that was still functioning you could create a position that allowed you to profit without risk.

How do you screw up a simple timestamp?

The first was 12:23 pm eastern.

The second was 1:16 pm eastern.

Gold dropped over $20 in that window alone and is now down over $70 from that inital post. I'm up about $150 on the second half I have left.

Just took second half off.

that is called a pair trade, diff bet, or pairs trade.

arbitrage is different and has a very specific definition.

EDIT: all your gobbledeegook above does not come close to describing arbitrage. arbitrage is risk-free profit. i.e. CL futs trading at > spot + storage cost - Futsprice*IR^(Expiry-spot). the arb trade would be short futs, buy spot and store it = risk free $. what you're talking about has TONS of risk (you use the word "supposedly"...thus it is not certain). not even remotely in the same ballpark as arbitrage. IF YOU CAN LOSE MONEY (either by the market being irrational or whatever) IT IS NOT AN ARB lolz.

Let me help you out music. That was at 813AM when Dec gold was 1728 or $26 below current prices.

to be fair, there's various types of "arbitrage" that aren't actually strictly arbitrage. this "conceptual arbitrage" thing he made up isn't one of them.

If someone as simple minded as this (to put it politely) ever had more money than me I'd probably run my balls through a meat grinder. No chance this guy is anything other than a keyboard jockey. Reminds me of the microlimit forum board pros who like to post as though they are actually good, when really they are broke and staying that way. People posting about silvers pullbacks neglect to mention the gradual uptrend it had from when it fell down to $32, or say, I dunno, the uptrend for the past 10 years.

Winner.

did you mean to post this as twofingerted? anyway, please cut out the nonsense there is already too much noise and crap in this thread and forum

yows,

they are 100% the same person

Any silver bugs know where to find moment to moment Silver RSI charts?

Yes yows, I got the timestamp wrong, recently changes my settings. You were still 4 hours late on calling that right? The "since 8:30" thing.

Don't respond because I don't care.

You obv care bc you responded.

Never mind I basically made every dollar on that trade, you want to try to call me out that you only could have caught half the move which was still like $100 in 2 days?

I dont post trades here bc I believe it helps people when I post and I pretty much hate everyone in this thread. The problem is I could see it was going to crack and being on the short side of every metals trade makes me feel good so that was a bigger interest for a short time.

Unfortunately for you being on the long side would have netted you more money...

Interesting how so many people around here can catch top/bottom tick.