In a severe inflation scenario?
Equities in essential commodity producers, equities in consumer staples that can raise prices.
Shorting consumer-discretionary and weak durable goods mfgs with thin margins.
Land. CHF.

Hyperinflation and/or a literal collapse of the USD; a 2nd passport that has a lot of visa free travel power, something to fuel up a private plane and pay a pilot. I guess that's where gold might come in... but you won't want to stick around for that, thinking your silver discs will be of much use.

1. And why are these better, bc you say so?
2. What happens after the hyper inflation event?
3. You flee the zombies and end up in Canada, are you going to trade your digital paper claim on a ADM for shoes and amo?
4. A passport is a little left field I think.
5. CHF, really?
6. You’re shorting in a severe inflation event?
7. Silver is just cheap gold


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Go check how the stock market did in the 1970s in the US .
You will see it wasn’t rosy at all .
Gold and real assets went nutz .

The power of gold silver is the availability of putting a lot of value in something that is small compare to a barrel of oil or aluminium cans.

And as rand correctly mention, the most important in a debt base system , no counter party risk .

Point is being all in in 1 asset in dumb .
U own gold , real estate , stock and some cash and you should be fine for anything .

What I mean by artificial is the added value to the US dollar because the world do need a common tool of exchange between different currencies ….
Because of this the demand of the US dollar is higher due to the constant demand of it .
Without this , there is no way the US dollar would have the same value , it’s true value .

You disagree ??

1999 the dollar was at 118 , 2008 it was at 71 .
You don’t consider this a big fall ?
Yup the fed saved the system as we know it at great cost .
How long you think the world will accept the fed doing that , bail out after bailout before they find a replacement?
It already started …..
Goldbug did get a great return without any risk in early 2000 and early 1970 because the US fack it up like all governments ( or prior empires ) eventually do.

People buys insurance for cars , houses , etc . Year after year .
I never understood why people do not buy insurance on what matters the most, their money , shrug .

If buying insurance makes me an idiot goldbug , fine by me .
I know how humans love to get greedy and creates crisis , so i protect myself shrug .

A lot Americans consider gold non useful because they never suffered what true hyperinflation means .
Nonetheless, it is very useful for those that learn from it .
Ask any German what they think about gold .
As long you never get burn , the stove always seem an enticing game .

1. You're acting as if I'm making this insight up for the sake of argument. Its not exactly a novel concept. Go learn more.
2. Massive social disorder.
3. Gibberish
4. Maybe for you, not for me.
5. Absolutely. I keep 10K CHF in reserve as a bugout emergency fund. I sure wish I had held onto my $360/ea BTC that used to serve that purpose, but I buckled when it first hit $9K.
6. Yes
7. Absolutely not. Value drivers are completely different. Thats a ****** silverbug talking point, right along with "silver is a hedge against inflation".
There's literally no data to back that up beyond the macro'ist of macro.

I don't think anyone would make this case.
I'll likewise stand as a 'prepper' but the difference is, I own about $200 FV of 90% (with an average cost basis of around 10X face, so not much) I don't have my net worth piled into it or I'm not mortgaging my house to buy silver bars. Go to Wall Street Silver sometime...

I own a couple guns. I don't have my net worth tied up in guns.

I keep 60 days worth of food on hand, in a closet, "just in case". I didn't dedicate my basement to 55 gallon drums of rice.

I think what you have here is people pointing out how dumb "silverbugs" are and silverbugs are quick to move the goalposts to a much more rational position than the typical silverbug narratives, when confronted on it.

Nobody mocks someone who has some metals because "who knows, we're in uncharted territory with currency printing, maybe having some gold isn't such a bad idea...". What gets mocked are the tard-level metals bugs narratives that are divorced from reality.

1. No, what I’m saying is that it’s circular for you to cite the thing that we are discussing as a reason for it being true.
2. Yes, another thing that happens is there is a need for new currency(ies). Gold, silver, and crypto (BTC) are not only the most viable, bu are also economically (and historically) the best choices.
3. The example may have been silly, but if you possess powers of abstraction, you should have been able to follow the logic and see reasonableness of the point
4. No, I think it’s a great idea objectively. It just doesn’t really qualify as an investment (for our purposes here). It’s more like a chore that you might do with a few days or week of your time. I said it was somewhat left field bc it makes your thinking / reasoning sound scattered. A passport is not a replacement for silver.
5. Well, as far as currencies go CHF is not a bad choice for reasons that I am sure that you are aware of. $10k USD / CHF in a bug out scenario is far different (again) from storing wealth in something like silver.
6. In****ing don’t remember this one
7. In a lot of ways data is not very useful here. The world has been in a Keynesian / Nixonian / Kissingerian (lol / lame) experiment fir decades. All real assets are hedges against inflation…some are more reasonable in extreme scenarios than others. (Gold) and silver have been money for millennia. And it doesn’t take a PhD in history to know that they ran the world before Keynes had an aneurysm.

Ah yes, LOL (no pun intended). Most of the rocket scientists in the world will tell you that it doesn’t make much sense to be shorting things in a hyper inflationary event. But have fun, and if it ever happens, please do share your position with us.

They are not completely different. In fact, they are quite similar. Something is wrong with your thinking if this is your position.

They are both:
-monetary metals
-used in jewlery
-used in electronics

And they are both metals, atomic elements, and sufficiently scarce to afford effective economic signals… the main difference other than color, and protons is that an ounce of gold is worth like 80 ounces of silver.

2. This is a bullshit argument. Please show your work and reference any of the known hyperinflationary events that have occured where silver or gold became the replacement currency. Venezuela had circulating silver coinage for many years AFTER the US eliminated it in 1965, yet we didnt see Venezuela revert to the silverbug theory on monetary metals... or anyone else.

So, in light of all hyperinflationary events that have ever occured in modern times HAVE NOT substantiated the metals-bug thesis with working examples, why should anyone accept metals bug theses as being true, in light of all working examples that contradict it?

4. Its the best investment you could possibly make if you genuinely believe the USD is due to collapse. The global upheaval that would cause would leave few safe places to hide. Every country that begins with the Letter I offers citizenship by ethnic descent.

5. 10K in CHF is vastly superior in a 'bugout scenario' than silver, if you're in Europe. I can keep $10K CHF in large denomiation notes in my wallet, which is much easier than lugging around 12kg of metal.

7. I kinda of accept this argument, kind of not. I hate any argument that starts with "the data is really an illusion because my theoretical reality hasn't had an opportunity to play itself out under perfect conditions, where it would be proven valid should that occur"... but I get what you're saying. Just because something hasn't failed doesn't mean it won't and recognizing fragility is a thing that Pollyanna's will always write off with "WELL, IT HASN'T FAILED YET!!!", which itself is a bullshit argument.

About the passport needed in case US dollar collapse …..
You think the US dollar being the reserve currency collapsing , somewhere else in the world would be fine without any problem ?
What countries are you aiming at ?
I hope it’s a big one because you surely don’t be the only one if such a place will exist.

The US collapsing would probably collapse the entire world currencies with it ….
The whole point of having a form of monetary currency outside of all the fiat around the world .

Your talking as if the economic world still as the same form of the 1800s.
The global economy as never been so intertwined in the history .
A falling of 1-2 or big bank somewhere in the world could create a cascade events that affects the entire world -> 2008 GFC ?

And today it would be even worst because debts are even much higher and the tools to intervene are almost non existent today with interest rates so low .

But hey , if you think a simple plane is enough to counter a currency world crisis , it’s fine by me .
Ill take gold/silver/bitcoin 100 times over a plane ticket .

Notice how no crypto was used to convey the ignorant take however Gold and silver were used.

Which ever one of the 170+ countries my 2nd passport allows me to enter visa-free looks best at the time. Of course, this makes a few presumptions about certain governance mechanisms on travel remaining intact that may not hold if the **** every truly hit the fan; sort of like 'buying rural land to escape societal collapse'.

If society ever gets to the point that grocery stores are empty and you're trying to grow a war garden for food, enforcing land title probably won't come back for a generation and at that point, you're just isolated, alone and waiting for the Mad Max gangs to come take your **** and occupy the land you thought you owned.

If the USD ever collapsed and we entered a global super-depression, its possible that passports might not even be relevant anymore but there would be a lot of smoke before the fire started. Hitler was elected in 33, Jews had a 6 year window to GTFO. Several recognized the writing on the wall and did.


It would cause chaos to be sure, but several would be fine. The IMF discarding the US as a relevant entity and shifting entirely to SDRs would be super interesting, but the US would be the last place you wanted to be in if the USD collapsed. "Diversity is strength" until its actually tested.

Meh, Hitler got elected because the damage was already done for a while and Germany was stuck in the mud since then with no way out , but anyway …


Why you think SDR would be fine ? It’s still only fiat ?

Fiat money as no value , it as only value by what it’s backing it -> debts by more fiat and governments/ people confidence right ?
I think around 75% of debt around the world are US denominated .
What you think happens if it’s collapse ?

Everything crash -> repeat 2008 but without nothing to stop it .
Only the FED can do something about the US dollar and if the fed is not working no more (US dollar collapsing ) it should be game over to all fiat .

Too much value are based on US dollar denominated debts .
What’s left is real assets and monetary value based on non debts -> gold, commodities, houses ,etc .

Im not saying the dollar will collapse but I have serious doubt about passport, plane tickets or SDR changed anything if a sovereign debt bubble , being the reserve currency like the US , burst and you have no outside assets off the old system (fiat value of any kind) and be ok …

It would be fine if other superpowers wouldn’t be crumbing under debts but they ALL are and a lot of their « value » are based from the US dollar debts.

Imho there is a reason Russia China years ago started to buy gold and stop buying US treasuries ….
Seem to me they already trying to isolate themselves for that possibility and rightly so .

Coincidence bitcoin appeared after the GFC in 2008 ?

Well, this conversation is getting a bit tangential and unrelated to silver, but...

I think the US- as a social experiment- is in a state of terminal decline and is probably one demographic cycle and then a major catalyst event from facing an existential crisis like we haven't seen since the civil war. The bottom line is, it is no place I would want to be during an economic or dollar collapse scenario when supply chains broke down and the bread lines formed. At least in rural Tuscany, I'll eat, drink and be safe to scratch out a subsistence life among a common people who only want to do the same, while the chaos shakes out in more economically and demographically experimental countries who won't be able to bullshit themselves any longer with compelling theories as the orcs coalesce and demand to be provided for in the name of 'fairness' or 'justice' or whatever.

At that point, the much more immediate problem of massive social disorder takes a short and mid term precedent over what role the barter system and/or metals might take on as a means of exchange in the aftermath... and honestly, I think the blockchain is a paradigm shift. I don't think a dollar collapse would reorganize around seashells or metals or fiat currency. It would absolutely, positively be 1. centrally managed and 2. digital.

They (China) did not stop buying US treasuries. They still are.
Its their nuclear-option they have against us in any major disagreement (arguably, more a potent threat than actual nukes since the likelihood to use them is vanishingly low whereas their collapsing our currency is something they could conceivably do, or use as leverage against us as a series of 'warning shots' with severe consequences to get us to comply)

Bought a little more gdx and wpm today. Nice to see the same old lame arguments for or against precious metals. Herp Derp they dumb rocks. Herm derm HYPER INFLATION!

It's an asset boys. Don't over think it. Like stocks there are times to own them and times to not own them. Being ideological about any trading vehicle makes you perform sub-optimally.

This is simply false. A nonsense myth. USTs are the most liquid thing on the planet. If China started to dump, everyone else would hold their hands wide and happily scoop them up at higher yields. Barely an inconvenience.

China's not even the biggest holder of USTs. They're = to UK + Luxembourg.

They're less than 5% of outstanding USTs, according to SIFMA and Tic data.


If people are worried about unrest in Asia, the last thing they're gonna do is flee USTs. Into what? China's currency isn't even freely convertible. Nobody trusts Russia much less the continually devalued ruble. The CHF? Wayyyyy too small.

Very short-term people flee into the Yen but long-term who'd want to be there for a prolonged period of Asian unrest, much less a shooting war with Taiwan or NK or whomever?

But no.

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

You'd have to add Germany, Sweden, Italy and Canada for them to be equal. They're the 2nd largest holder in the world behind Japan,

According to the data above, they're about 15% of outstanding US Treasuries.

I think the point was from me and najdorf , China was the top holder of treasuries and it went massively down since the 2013.

https://www.cepal.org/en/notes/trend...al-debt-charts
Chart 5

I guess you can say they still buy some because they receive lot of US dollar by trading so they need to do something with it but they effectively start a downturn for holding treasuries a long time ago and it still decreasing .
Going more to gold , like Russia .

But no, you have misread the chart completely. They are still <5% of outstanding UST holdings. Re-read the first line of your link and you'll see why you are obviously wrong.

Even in your completely different chart than the correct ones I was using, they are equal to the UK+ Ireland+ Caymans [or Lux]. Left out the Ireland part.

China's entire holdings could be cleared in less than 2 days of trading, on average.

Try to actually read through the data and understand it, before posting pre-formed and clearly untrue narratives gotten from elsewhere on the interwebz about China.

Aaaaaand the USD is at 1-yr high. In the middle of the debt ceiling crisis.

If silver (and gold) can't make it now they will never make it. Must be market manipulation

Fwiw when I look at the last time the dollar was close to that high in oct.2016 ,
Silver was 2 dollar lower and gold was 500$ lower .

They doing ok .

yep, they holding up extremely well with Global markets tanking and dollar very strong.

I would like to add is that silver price is higher than it seems. Go try and get physical and tell me what price you pay.
Premiums been elevated for 2.5 years, the 10 years prior to that they were only elevated for a day or two.