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Old 09-22-2020, 04:09 PM   #3901
Trolly McTrollson
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Re: Silver

Is this the part where we start complaining about JP Morgan manipulating the price of silver? I don’t remember exactly when that happened last time.
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Old 09-22-2020, 04:52 PM   #3902
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Re: Silver

Is it me?

No, no, it's the *warehouse owners* that are manipulating the market.
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Old 09-22-2020, 06:04 PM   #3903
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Re: Silver

Maybe they raised margins
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Old 09-23-2020, 03:58 PM   #3904
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Re: Silver

Brought some more silver today and an oz of gold. Psychical. BuY the dip
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Old 09-23-2020, 05:37 PM   #3905
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Re: Silver

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Brought some more silver today and an oz of gold. Psychical. BuY the dip
While I like the sentiment, my fear is that what we're seeing is a recognition that inflation may not be kicking in any time soon. In addition, the congress does not appear to be making any headway on additional stimulus. All this leads me to believe there is more downside coming before (if?) we get back to upward trajectory.
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Old 09-24-2020, 10:56 AM   #3906
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Re: Silver

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Getting richer off of silver!
Getting more richer off of silver!! Shorting SLV money machine goes Brrrr brrr brrrrr.
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:02 PM   #3907
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Re: Silver

This week has hurt. However, techically both metals still look okay, still up a lot this year. Would have been nice to see gold hold 1920 and silver 26, but 1800 and 21 are also key levels. Let's see what happens.
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Old 09-24-2020, 03:25 PM   #3908
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Re: Silver

It's lighting money on fire to buy anything when the government gives the money printer a rest. Democrats are going to pass a $2.4 trillion stimulus bill in the House next week. Republicans can't even pass a $1.5 trillion stimulus in the Senate. Eventually, the market will throw a tantrum and systemic stuff will "stop functioning". Then the Fed, acting as liaison for Wall St., will come back with their hat in hand and ask Congress for a couple trillion to bailout the financial markets again.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if both parties wind up panic reacting and pass a much higher stimulus than even the $3 trillion the Democrats passed a few months ago.
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Old 09-24-2020, 03:48 PM   #3909
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Re: Silver

^ I don't disagree. I have a good friend who dumped half his metal on this same logic.

Imho, trying to time the metals market with that political overlay thesis is a fool's errand. The metals will bounce around (if they go down, people will point to lack of fed/fiscal - if they go up, people will say the markets are forward looking). I think the risk of being out of the metals market is too great and would hate to have to pay up for a later. Ultimately, I still think gold is cheap, it's only 80% above the bear market low of 1050, so even if the fundamentals are a little unclear, I'm confident holding/adding on dips.

When the fundamentals are crystal clear, everyone knows it, and usually the price has already escalated.
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Old 09-27-2020, 03:05 AM   #3910
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Re: Silver

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Originally Posted by jefkve View Post
While I like the sentiment, my fear is that what we're seeing is a recognition that inflation may not be kicking in any time soon. In addition, the congress does not appear to be making any headway on additional stimulus. All this leads me to believe there is more downside coming before (if?) we get back to upward trajectory.
Imo It doesn’t really matter if inflation isn’t coming .
you might see again 1600 gold short term but it won’t stay long at that level , not in those kind of times .


Stock overprice
Bonds dead
Overseas they all have same problems .

Gold isn’t overpriced now I think.
Silver just following gold
At those price gold /silver seem cheap.
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Old 09-27-2020, 10:23 AM   #3911
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Re: Silver

The real driver of gold price is the risk of sovereign default. That risk is continuing to grow throughout the world. Hence, the bid in gold for the last 4 years. As the market begins to comprehend that the "west" cannot grow itself out of it's debt, people/ countries are going to look for a "safe" place to store their money.

With all that said, the sector is likely to be dead money for at least another 6 months to a year because of all the rampant speculation. Why trade it right now?
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Old 09-27-2020, 06:11 PM   #3912
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Re: Silver

How does gold protect against sovereign default? The economic system is too advanced these days for gold to mean much in that regard. Its long term value is ultimately limited by its value proposition for electronics and the purchasing power of second and third world gold lovers.

Ownership of companies, brands, real estate and taxing power is where wealth and trust in wealth lies, not gold or silver. It will always be a sliver of the value out there which means it hasn't got that far to grow (there's no moon scenario).
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Old 09-27-2020, 09:46 PM   #3913
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Re: Silver

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How does gold protect against sovereign default? The economic system is too advanced these days for gold to mean much in that regard. Its long term value is ultimately limited by its value proposition for electronics and the purchasing power of second and third world gold lovers.

Ownership of companies, brands, real estate and taxing power is where wealth and trust in wealth lies, not gold or silver. It will always be a sliver of the value out there which means it hasn't got that far to grow (there's no moon scenario).
If a sovereign debt default occur, almost a guarantee that a devaluation of currency occur.
You will be glad to have some gold.

companies can bankrupt for multiple reasons while gold can’t .
Ownership can be risky and ultimately all companies disappeared.

Wealth lies under different form , gold included.

I don’t understand how u consider a brand to have great wealth value while you don’t with bitcoin ......
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Old 09-28-2020, 06:01 AM   #3914
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Re: Silver

Defaults have occurred many times throughout history. We didn't get global hyperinflation and hypergold. We got localized inflation and the money flowed to the winners. The history of gold over 2000 years through war, revolution, societal collapse, plagues, crop failures, empires, sovereign debt defaults by the dozens, is that it has roughly kept up with normal low level inflation.

A brand has great value because it allows you to sell things at a profit, enabling exponential growth from reliable return on capital. Bitcoin doesn't sell anything and has no profit mechanism (in fact, there are massive costs just to keep it running).
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Old 10-01-2020, 02:31 PM   #3915
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Re: Silver

What does it change if it is local inflation or not ?
If you have the majority of your wealth in a country and it default , gold is the answer to protect it .

Now the problem we are talking about is the reserve currency that might default one day or a devaluation .
That imo means it will affect everyone , not just by the fact the US dollar will worth less but that all the economy in the world are interconnected with the US, all With some sort of liabilities between each other’s....
If the US drop , everyone gets hit .
It like it’s the same situation as 2008 with banks but now it’s the countries that are involved .
There is simply too much debts in the system that everyone own and I owe to each other .
I just don’t see anything beside gold (maybe bitcoin the market will decide ) that will do great in that situation .

As for “brand name” , it’s an intangible asset and so is value is all about confidence , like bitcoin imo .
That is why I don’t get you disregard so much bitcoin .
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Old 10-04-2020, 09:17 PM   #3916
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Re: Silver

Can any silver experts weigh in on the metal aspects of this thread?

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...tolen-1779068/
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Old 10-05-2020, 12:24 PM   #3917
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Re: Silver

Interesting story. I spent about 15m in the thread and I've been investing in metals for about 2 years, so here's my hot take.

I see 3 issues

1) The legality of using metals to pay out cash prize above the $1,600 threshold. Seems extremely sketchy that you could just use gold and silver (and not report), and particularly what the tax treatment around that would be legally versus what was used in this case.

2) The use of counterfeit metal. From the original thread it seems like this was not the case. EG the silver paid out was at least real.

3) The "exchange" rate used to priced the metal. To me it appears, people were underpaid in metal. Generic silver rounds were used. Pre-Covid generic rounds TO BUY went for spot+$1.xx in change at a roughly, or spot+10%. TO SELL you would get roughly spot+nominal change (call it 2%).

Post-covid with silver in the mid-20s, silver rounds TO BUY are still roughly spot+2.xx, spot +10%. The sell back is roughly the same, spot+2%.

The premiums on premium silver coins are generally quite a bit higher eg American Silver Eagles, Canadian Silver Maples etc. I'd recommend browsing around some of the bigger online dealers to see what the premiums look like on either side of the transaction (JM bullion is the dealer I use/trust).


Anyways, to me it seems like an improper exchange rate was used, prizes were underpaid. So the tournament directors pocketed some immediate value that way. I'm also HIGHLY suspicious of what is going on the tax treatment side. Whose silver horde is being used for cash-outs? Is that person or persons reporting the sale of the silver? To me it seems like someone involved just wants to cash out their silver gains tax-free, and this is just a laundering scam to do it. On top of that, they're underpaying to unsophisticated "investors" who came to play poker, not to invest in metals.

One final thought, all things being equal if they were offering fair value on the metals, as a player, I would prefer the metal over the paper $$$. If anything though, they should be offering a premium to players, not a discount, since players will have to travel out of their way to convert the metal back to the dollars they actually want.

I'm also highly suspicious around the legality of paying out in metal to avoid state laws.
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Old 10-05-2020, 06:44 PM   #3918
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Re: Silver

Paying out in non-cash prizes seems to be an established workaround. Government officials came in, verified that all the silver that was paid for was there, and left.

At least some of the overpay is probably due to scrambling to acquire 200K in metals in 24 hours (or less) when a previous workaround was deemed unacceptable. And they seem to have bought premium silver alongside more generic coins (and bars) and given out the prizes solely on weight without accounting for coin quality.

The story is also that they bought a dealer's entire supply of silver and he actually didn't have enough and had to go make a deal with another (unnamed) dealer to get the rest. The dealer is named Andy Mettille(r) and his company is AMPM.999 and there isn't much info online about either. How would you go about evaluating the credibility of this person/company?
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Old 10-11-2020, 11:21 PM   #3919
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Re: Silver

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Originally Posted by BDHarrison View Post
Paying out in non-cash prizes seems to be an established workaround. Government officials came in, verified that all the silver that was paid for was there, and left.

At least some of the overpay is probably due to scrambling to acquire 200K in metals in 24 hours (or less) when a previous workaround was deemed unacceptable. And they seem to have bought premium silver alongside more generic coins (and bars) and given out the prizes solely on weight without accounting for coin quality.

The story is also that they bought a dealer's entire supply of silver and he actually didn't have enough and had to go make a deal with another (unnamed) dealer to get the rest. The dealer is named Andy Mettille(r) and his company is AMPM.999 and there isn't much info online about either. How would you go about evaluating the credibility of this person/company?
Physical metal has been holding a hefty premium for months. Over the years metals have held a small premium for short periods of time however I have never seen the hefty premiums this size and Hold for anywhere this length of time.

If they were giving back less thaqn 3-5$ back per ounce then it probably was all legit
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Old 10-11-2020, 11:26 PM   #3920
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Re: Silver

Shouldn’t the « silver paper » reflect a higher price compare to physical+ premium if it’s lasting so long with a very expensive premium ?

It just feel like getting rip off if you buy physical ..
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Old 10-11-2020, 11:30 PM   #3921
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Re: Silver

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Shouldn’t the « silver paper » reflect a higher price compare to physical+ premium if it’s lasting so long with a very expensive premium ?
You might think. Now I have heard people say it's bullion dealers "taking advantage of customers". Which is something I don't believe to be true, because theoretically I believe if they all joined up together and tried to manipulate the prices, they would open the opportunity for another dealer to swoop in and offer a lower price. As far as I know these premiums are running across the board all over which makes me think there is no coordinated manipulation.

Are you getting ripped off tho? What happens if the paper contracts stand for delivery and someone has to default.
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Old 10-12-2020, 01:46 AM   #3922
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Re: Silver

Does anybody really know how the silver contracts work? I mean if there's such a big gap in paper to physical, clearly somebody can just take delivery from the futures and collect on the arbitrage.

It's possible it's becoming more and more expensive to melt down the big futures bars and make coins/smaller bars and thus the gap gets bigger.
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Old 10-12-2020, 02:23 AM   #3923
Montrealcorp
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Re: Silver

Thx guys
Well some bank got pinch about manipulating market .
And it just feel silver should be higher so I wondered if a premium so high for so long to buy physical might be a hint to think silver paper is still vrry low .
Just didn’t represent the « true » market value ?

But I’m not knowledgeable about that stuff so I was just wondering .
I guess it’s kinda ok if the premiums all are crazy high everywhere.
Thx !
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Old 10-12-2020, 06:41 AM   #3924
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Re: Silver

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Originally Posted by onemoretimes View Post
Does anybody really know how the silver contracts work? I mean if there's such a big gap in paper to physical, clearly somebody can just take delivery from the futures and collect on the arbitrage.

It's possible it's becoming more and more expensive to melt down the big futures bars and make coins/smaller bars and thus the gap gets bigger.
Roy Sebag talked about it in one these or possibly both, it's been some months I forget which one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP6zCqqn9Q8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCHE2zKOStU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1qBRzBAgc4
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Old 10-13-2020, 11:36 AM   #3925
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Re: Silver

Is there a symbol where I can make options plays on the dollars? I have longterm precious metals calls now and am seeking a hedge.
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