Hi guys,
There were a few posts about Russian Stocks already, but I wanted to specifically discuss buying Russian Stocks at current depressed valuations. In particular, I am considering Yandex, Gazprom, Lukoil and a tiny bit of Sberbank.
1)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote...SDAQ?window=1M 60% discount compared to the normal valuation (trading halted though)
2)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote...MKTS?window=1M 65% discount compared to the normal valuation
3)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote...MKTS?window=1M 70% discount compared to the normal valuation
4)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SBRCY:OTCMKTS 90% Discount compared to the normal valuation. Riskiest out of all 4, cauz they are also susceptible to a bank run and do not have physical assets/intellectual property like Gas, Oil and Russian Google/Uber (Yandex).
Risks: If there is protracted war and Russia ends up nationalizing the companies, true, all these stocks effectively go to big fat '0'
However, I am banking on a different scenario. Eventually, there is a cease fire and Russia and Ukraine come to some sort of agreement. While some of the sanctions will remain, many countries depend on Russian oil and Natural Gas, hence why I am picking Lukoil and Gazprom.
Also, these are "Too big to fail" companies run by Putin friend. So being that he is generally known for being loyal, he is unlikely to nationalize the property of his friends especially when he is in all likelihood getting his cut from that.
In that case those stocks will eventually come back to 50-60% of their original valuation, which is going to be more than a double up for the investor at the current valuations.
Wanted to run this idea by you guys to see what you might think?
And I am in no hurry, can hold those securities for however long if it takes more time than anticipated.