Hi guys,
There were a few posts about Russian Stocks already, but I wanted to specifically discuss buying Russian Stocks at current depressed valuations. In particular, I am considering Yandex, Gazprom, Lukoil and a tiny bit of Sberbank.
1) https://www.google.com/finance/quote...SDAQ?window=1M 60% discount compared to the normal valuation (trading halted though)
2) https://www.google.com/finance/quote...MKTS?window=1M 65% discount compared to the normal valuation
3) https://www.google.com/finance/quote...MKTS?window=1M 70% discount compared to the normal valuation
4) https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SBRCY:OTCMKTS 90% Discount compared to the normal valuation. Riskiest out of all 4, cauz they are also susceptible to a bank run and do not have physical assets/intellectual property like Gas, Oil and Russian Google/Uber (Yandex).

Risks: If there is protracted war and Russia ends up nationalizing the companies, true, all these stocks effectively go to big fat '0'
However, I am banking on a different scenario. Eventually, there is a cease fire and Russia and Ukraine come to some sort of agreement. While some of the sanctions will remain, many countries depend on Russian oil and Natural Gas, hence why I am picking Lukoil and Gazprom.
Also, these are "Too big to fail" companies run by Putin friend. So being that he is generally known for being loyal, he is unlikely to nationalize the property of his friends especially when he is in all likelihood getting his cut from that.
In that case those stocks will eventually come back to 50-60% of their original valuation, which is going to be more than a double up for the investor at the current valuations.
Wanted to run this idea by you guys to see what you might think?
And I am in no hurry, can hold those securities for however long if it takes more time than anticipated.

I'm buying more QIWI with this 21% dividend yield. YNDX looked at that one in your list. What the heck happened in Oct/Nov last year? Stock has been nose diving ever since. Thanks for the PJSC LUKOIL (LUKOY) idea. It's payed a dividend for many many years.

There's a play on the re-building of Ukraine too. Construction companies, equipment.

QIWI will maintain that dividend?

No need to catch the bottom. Being wrong by being early sucks.

Very interesting & absolutely related conversation going on over here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/vie...ewpost=6543616

No dividends currently, factor that in. Also wait for a rounded bottom, even buying a 25% up day is better than catching a falling knife.

Wouldn't GAZPROM be a better buy than LUKOIL?

Seems like EU can get off oil before gas

Also, if Russia takes Ukraine won't they be doing so for the O&G opportunities? That goes to Gazprom right?

Russian Tech Giant Yandex Says It Might Default

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...default-a76752

said i needed an account to view it so i created one and now this

It was in the Personal Investments forum, which obviously you're authorized to read. I think the thread just got nuked because they're very touchy about anything political being discussed there, and that's the message that comes up when you type in a URL of a nuked thread, apparently.

I was tracking the $RSX out of morbid curiosity. But it seems to have been delisted from the exchanges. I don't TradFi that often but had the market tanked beyond some reasonable degree I probably would have made a play. Had there been peace talks at some point down the road or some other situation which could have helped to normalize things, the multiplier there seemed a bit too good.

Gazprom is down to $1.10 so it is on the dollar menu....That's gotta be a buy based on this theory.

I do think it likely won't be nationalized but how do you invest in it? Just buy OGZPY otc?

Somewhat off-topic:

Which crypto currency most closely resembles the ruble? In other words, if one wants to bet on the ruble but is too scared of the liquidity of such a play, which crypto is most ruble-ish and therefore kind of satisfies making a bet on the ruble without actually doing so?

Bad idea. They will be nationalized or similar.

Wheat futures a week ago?

Juk

What platform do you use to buy Russian stocks out of interest?

ruble new 52 week highs

biden clown car off in the ditch

lol @ anyone in the long Joe Biden / short ruble trade

imagine being dumb enough to launch sanctions against a country that has food and raw materials your alliance needs, then watch those sanctions spectacularly fail in only two months

russians have everything they need and the west is going to be starving and without fuel by autumn

russian stocks probably have 50% upside short-medium term and ruble will continue to crush usd and eur

do you ever get tired of trolling? of derailing threads?

I've grown extremely tired of your act in less than a week of being aware of you.

gee......... maybe the governments of Western Europe feel it is important to act in an ethical/moral way. did that ever cross your mind?

or are you still "circle jerking" over the liberal media?

as to Russian stocks,

Lukoil used at one-time traded at a 95% discount to NAV and I'm guessing 1x cash flow.

I thought at the time, "how can this be?".... well, the consensus argument seemed to be that the govt/oligarchs would just steal anyway cash that comes the company's way.

and of course, the government can just nationalize the assets and give them to another company in a few years.

if you want a pure punt for very small % of your portfolio, go ahead.. but I do not think it'll prove to be some shrewd trade years later.

you mean the same western governments that commit outright theft every day and bomb women and children in the middle east? iraq, afghanistan, syria, yemen?

you have a very one-sided view of ethics and morals that just happens to line up with westerners making and breaking whatever rules will get them more money and power. interesting


russian stocks up again today as ruble hits new 2 year highs vs the dollar

reminds me of that scam crypto coin that kept going up and up in value once the creators banned selling