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08-13-2020 , 05:59 PM
Been long since gold broke and held 1,400. Not selling a thing until gdx or slv print ATHs or gold breaks 1,350 to the downside.

Edit: unless the fed starts hiking

Last edited by pokerarb; 08-13-2020 at 06:13 PM.
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08-13-2020 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
Been long since gold broke and held 1,400. Not selling a thing until gdx or slv print ATHs or gold breaks 1,350 to the downside.

Edit: unless the fed starts hiking
no way in heaven gold is ever touching 1350 again
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08-13-2020 , 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
Been long since gold broke and held 1,400. Not selling a thing until gdx or slv print ATHs or gold breaks 1,350 to the downside.

Edit: unless the fed starts hiking
I'm not selling gold until the IRS shows up at my door and demands that I return it. And there will be a hell of a fight when that happens.
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08-13-2020 , 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by twoblack9s
I'm not selling gold until the IRS shows up at my door and demands that I return it. And there will be a hell of a fight when that happens.
Amen brotha, I’m with u here
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08-14-2020 , 12:49 AM
At this rate I might be able to b/e on the 8/14 28c I had on slv that blew through their stop loss
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08-14-2020 , 07:13 PM
Berkshire long $GOLD. Monday should be fun.

Wonder if they have a smaller position in metals also
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08-14-2020 , 08:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
Berkshire long $GOLD. Monday should be fun.

Wonder if they have a smaller position in metals also
Good I want to be a millionaire soon 🙏
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08-14-2020 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
Berkshire long $GOLD. Monday should be fun.

Wonder if they have a smaller position in metals also
It was also disclosed today that Ray Dalio invested $400 mil into gold-related ETFs in Q2. Mike Novogratz also made some bullish statements this week about spot gold possibly hitting 2500 by the end of the year.

Could be a rocky ride for awhile but I like our company.
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08-17-2020 , 03:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Except this is an objectively verifiable thing. It's not a question of "believing" or opinion. We can measure this easily, and lots of groups do, from the government to private institutions.

Your dad saying "prices keep increasing" isn't a quantified statement. "Prices keep increasing" is exactly consistent with the inflation numbers we say today.

Did they increase 1% for your family? 5%? In meat or across a broad range? Is their little neck of the woods (delivery bottlenecks?) indicative of broader USA?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Let just say it increased more than the government is reporting. Does the government ever give u accurate numbers. Like employment and other stats. I don’t think so, so I take their numbers with some cautions.
Seem both of you are right .

what makes both of you right is when we take into account the “size of packaging” of food .

Yes the price of the food might go up with like 2% per year inflation but I think lot of package as been reduce by a certain margin as well compared from a couple years ago and adding that cost would reflet a higher inflation .
You buy more for less quantity .


When I see equities go high like that while the economy is clearly not ok, there huge inflation right there due to the money supply imo.
Money get devalued big time .
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08-17-2020 , 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
You buy more for less quantity .
A good example of this is York's Peppermint patties. I go through a lot of them with my vending machines, so I pay close attention to their price.

A large bag at walmart was $8.98 and had 84 yorks. Now they're $8.98 but only have 72 yorks.

All sorts of other candy has been doing the same. Peanut mm's went from 64 to 56 to 52 ounce bags, all the same price. Skittles did a similar thing.

It's annoying because I used to track inventory by the number of bags, but now I have to switch over to ounces.
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08-17-2020 , 11:23 AM
Shrinkflation is a real thing. The worst part of it is that that final 10-20% of actual product costs almost nothing to them, they could give it to you for 1-10c.
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08-17-2020 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
Could be a rocky ride for awhile but I like our company.
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08-18-2020 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Shrinkflation is a real thing. The worst part of it is that that final 10-20% of actual product costs almost nothing to them, they could give it to you for 1-10c.
well they still need some margin of safety for futur cut.
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08-18-2020 , 07:07 PM
As anyone bought gold or silver from their banks ?
Are they trustworthy, not about the quality of its composition but at the asking price for it , in general ?

I just kinda doubt I could distinguish a good retail From a bad one that I could have confidence in .
Thx.

Ps: or simply just some pointers to check to minimize risk of falling on a bad store ?
Thx.
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08-18-2020 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
Seem both of you are right .

what makes both of you right is when we take into account the “size of packaging” of food .

Yes the price of the food might go up with like 2% per year inflation but I think lot of package as been reduce by a certain margin as well compared from a couple years ago and adding that cost would reflet a higher inflation .
You buy more for less quantity .


When I see equities go high like that while the economy is clearly not ok, there huge inflation right there due to the money supply imo.
Money get devalued big time .
yeah in my book thats just inflation if your average cost went up
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08-20-2020 , 05:47 PM
The Feds do track price per ounce, not price per WMT package ffs.
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08-21-2020 , 07:03 PM
GLD and SLV basically finished the week right around where they started it. Seems the FOMC spooked some people. The silver lining (har har) is there seems to be pretty decent support for each around their current levels. The put:call ratio is still bullish, but, then again, that's the case for a huge segment of the market.
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08-21-2020 , 07:19 PM
Meh, we need a consolidation after the big run. Gold could pull back all the way to 1800 and silver 21.5 and the charts are still way bullish. (Not that I think we will pullback that far)
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08-21-2020 , 07:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
Meh, we need a consolidation after the big run. Gold could pull back all the way to 1800 and silver 21.5 and the charts are still way bullish. (Not that I think we will pullback that far)
Yeah. We need this stuff to bubble Hunt brothers style or at least another run like 2011. We need irrational exuberance mrmusicrecorder style. We need mouth breathing stackers crawling out of the woodwork. Nothing is more fun to trade than a bubble. But it isn't bubbling yet. But I hope we have enough stacker bros that haven't switched to bitcoin yet to give us a good tradeable run here. It will end in tears like it always does but it could be some great trade before that happens.
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08-22-2020 , 05:04 AM
I think your wrong this time. I think Gold/SLV/BTC could be the right side of the trade. The USD is getting completely wrecked and investors will be flocking to a safe haven. I think if/once the DXY breaks 80 we will see some panic. Right now it got a little bounce because of a weak EUR but the economy is in absolute shambles. The stock market is being held up by like 5 companies that are so heavily weighted in the DOW and SPY that it looks like we have a V shaped recovery. Look at CAT - or any infrastructure growth stock. They are down. It's just a giant tech bubble. Companies like AMZN prosper in a destroyed economy. AAPL is just buying back it's own shares with government money. Institutions are forced to buy over priced stocks so they don't miss out on short term profits.

I got in SLV at $12 - $16 - $23. Recently took some profits at $27 but that was so over extended on the chart I almost had too. Also have some covered calls at $28.5 on SLV that expire AUG 28.

I'm not as bullish on GLD but still own. I think the greater fools rally is this stock market bubble that the fed inflated since 2008 with 0% interest and cheap money. Although this fools rally could keep rallying and i've been crushing for now (especially the options plays). But just waiting for the rug to be pulled once the SPY breaks key support. There are so many people hurting right now, it's ridiculous.

Last edited by djevans; 08-22-2020 at 05:10 AM.
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08-23-2020 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
GLD and SLV basically finished the week right around where they started it. Seems the FOMC spooked some people. The silver lining (har har) is there seems to be pretty decent support for each around their current levels. The put:call ratio is still bullish, but, then again, that's the case for a huge segment of the market.
what's the kurtosis of the option vol, if any?
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08-23-2020 , 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
what's the kurtosis of the option vol, if any?
IMPV for SLV is up a lot if you wanna sell options
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08-23-2020 , 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Except this is an objectively verifiable thing. It's not a question of "believing" or opinion. We can measure this easily, and lots of groups do, from the government to private institutions.
Well, to be fair, it's not exactly a truly objectively measured price change, if we're referring to a static methodology for measuring price levels. The methodology used for measuring the CPI has been altered quite a bit over time, particularly in 1990's with substitution and hedonics. These certainly add a human element of judgement, or even worse, subjectivity to the process.

Plenty of articles out there which elaborate of course. Anything these days that even questions the intentions or integrity of the government still gets written off as tin foil, but anyhow, here's one site that throws it's tinfoil hat in the ring: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...flation-charts

There's others that have said even the numbers are higher.
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08-24-2020 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans
IMPV for SLV is up a lot if you wanna sell options
that had nothing to do with my query, but thank you.
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08-24-2020 , 09:42 PM
"Powell set to deliver ‘profoundly consequential’ speech, changing how the Fed views inflation"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/powe...inflation.html
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