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Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down

03-20-2023 , 10:36 PM
It's ok, all banks are safe.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...crisis-expands
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-20-2023 , 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Puru Saxena replied to me on Twitter and said no.
Definitely don't want any transparency on this.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-21-2023 , 01:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Definitely don't want any transparency on this.
Yeah dude. There are so many flaws like the big firms have "off balance sheet" assets. In the 1930's they realized banking should be boring and Glass Steagall was born. That's all we need none of this higher FDIC insurance. It just misses the whole point.

https://www.federalreservehistory.or...s-steagall-act

Now i think many have forgotten what it was. We're talking about mark to market again. If they aren't going to atleast let some of the zombies fail and let the capitalist system work atleast briefly on the downside eventually it just cascades. I might be turning into a bitcoiner.

Last edited by Jupiter0; 03-21-2023 at 01:36 AM.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-21-2023 , 02:08 AM
The depression of 1873 hurt the economy a long time and it took WWII to basically get over the Great Depression fully. I think we would just now have been getting over 2008 absent central banking and the QE. Maybe.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-21-2023 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Are we able to know which banks are using the discount window this time that caused this spike?


The Fed is required to issue detailed quarterly reports on discount window lending but with a two-year lag. This was mandated in 2010 in Dodd-Frank:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/regre...ransaction.htm

Apparently the Fed is very concerned about the stigma of discount window lending, which I find odd since the info is only available with a two-year lag:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econr...-20171219.html
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-21-2023 , 03:01 PM
You can see the equivalent of mark to market of securities not for sale under AOCI. Offered for sale securities are marked to market. It is in all the quarterlies and annual reports.

The big uptick in discount window lending typically coincided with banks going defensive. When they stop lending to each other for day-to-day liquidity needs, the discount window is there. Banks are obviously a little more defensive than normal right now
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-22-2023 , 05:04 PM
So the fed is basically done hiking? Why did the market tank then?
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-22-2023 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
So the fed is basically done hiking? Why did the market tank then?
He's sticking to his guns on inflation. I think the UK inflation uptick was part of it maybe. UK CPI up 10.4% vs 9.9 estimate
. Just came out last night. Said they will stay the course. He did pretty well being even toned. Immediately after him Yellen put out that they are not considering a backstop of uninsured deposits or raising FDIC limit. That brought the stock market and banks to lows.
Quote:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a Senate committee that she's not considering expanding the FDIC's insurance limit of $250,000. “[We've] not considered or discussed having anything to do with a blanket insurance or guarantees of all deposits,” Yellen, however, said that if there’s a contagious bank run, the Treasury would likely pursue an exception that would permit the FDIC to protect all depositors of the failed banks. This would be considered on a case-by-case basis, she told senators.
Powell *POWELL: IF WE NEED TO RAISE RATES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, WE WILL
bank stress: such a tightening and financial conditions would, would work in the same direction as rate tightening in principle. As a matter of fact, you can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike. Or perhaps more than that'

They're going to let the market work itself out and contraction to insue

Last edited by Jupiter0; 03-22-2023 at 05:33 PM.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-22-2023 , 07:06 PM
He's waiting for demand destruction and credit contraction imo
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-22-2023 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
He's waiting for demand destruction and credit contraction imo
The sky is blue imo
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-23-2023 , 12:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
The sky is blue imo
Some of the investment banks just in the last week were forecasting a Fed pause and pivot. So could have been a big difference to say the least. Still bullish on Citigroup valuation?
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-23-2023 , 08:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Some of the investment banks just in the last week were forecasting a Fed pause and pivot. So could have been a big difference to say the least. Still bullish on Citigroup valuation?
Some of them were wrong.

I'm not bullish on C, and wasn't before. Having a counter-thesis to a short thesis isn't quite the same as being bullish.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-24-2023 , 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Some of them were wrong.

I'm not bullish on C, and wasn't before. Having a counter-thesis to a short thesis isn't quite the same as being bullish.
Isaiah the Prophet was Bullish! And that was long before any silly marketing thesis drivel!! I believe in God and a good return on investment; and that’s why I’m sitting on a throne of Gold right now with no money worries. I wish the same for everyone else.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-27-2023 , 01:34 AM
breaking news Sunday night First Citizens is buying Silicon Valley for $500 million. Weekend buyouts are a trend now. I'd say FRC buyout next weekend if the stock keeps falling.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-27-2023 , 04:52 PM


Found this info on Twitter and I haven't cross checked it with anything else.
https://twitter.com/GoingJGalt

Last edited by Jupiter0; 03-27-2023 at 04:57 PM.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-27-2023 , 05:08 PM
I could view this on my phone. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/...ng-ye-12629900
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-28-2023 , 08:40 AM
WSJ: Bets Against Signature Bank Stock Paid Off—on Paper, at Least

"For options traders, betting that shares of Signature Bank and SVB Financial Group would plummet was the easy part. Trying to cash out has been harder—and, for many, unexpectedly costly."

"Some traders say their brokers have made it hard to exercise the options. Others say they are stuck posting thousands of dollars in collateral with their brokers just to keep open the possibility that they will be able to close out the trades."

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bets-ag...b0679b?mod=mhp
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-28-2023 , 11:32 PM
Top 10 balances at SVB averaged 1.3B? I assume these are business accounts but does anyone have an idea what the perks are for keeping these huge balances at a bank like this?

Do you get a 2% 30yr mortgage on your personal residence, 1-2% higher CDs than anywhere else?


For the deposit numbers that there are, they must have had perks that really incentivized many fat cats to park their $ there
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-29-2023 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocket_zeros
WSJ: Bets Against Signature Bank Stock Paid Off—on Paper, at Least

"For options traders, betting that shares of Signature Bank and SVB Financial Group would plummet was the easy part. Trying to cash out has been harder—and, for many, unexpectedly costly."

"Some traders say their brokers have made it hard to exercise the options. Others say they are stuck posting thousands of dollars in collateral with their brokers just to keep open the possibility that they will be able to close out the trades."

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bets-ag...b0679b?mod=mhp
People really like to complain. Having to post collateral to hold a short is absolutely standard. Not being able to hold a short in an IRA is the law. The Options Clearing Corp not exercising options in a security that isn't trading is absolutely standard.

People probably shouldn't be trading options if they don't know these sorts of things.
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03-30-2023 , 12:10 PM
MCB Metropolitan bank down 20% today
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-30-2023 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
MCB Metropolitan bank down 20% today
F
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-30-2023 , 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
MCB Metropolitan bank down 20% today
20% down, now 25%!! 26"s are trading

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-30-2023 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
People really like to complain. Having to post collateral to hold a short is absolutely standard. Not being able to hold a short in an IRA is the law. The Options Clearing Corp not exercising options in a security that isn't trading is absolutely standard.

People probably shouldn't be trading options if they don't know these sorts of things.
Brokers are pricing the stocks at wildly different points, some at zero, some at ridiculous levels. Asking for more collateral against an existing short position of a company with 0% chance of trading anywhere need their marks seems absurd to me.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-30-2023 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocket_zeros
Brokers are pricing the stocks at wildly different points, some at zero, some at ridiculous levels. Asking for more collateral against an existing short position of a company with 0% chance of trading anywhere need their marks seems absurd to me.
There are good reasons to mark it high. You have to borrow shares (and pay the owner) to be short and the owner of the shares can call them back on a whim. When something cannot be bought, this becomes a risk to the broker.

Brokers aren't in the business of taking on such risks.

As an aside, I don't have sympathy for people who have to face margin calls. It is part of the game.

(I think it is trading now as SVIBQ. If that is correct, the problem sorts itself out)
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote
03-31-2023 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
There are good reasons to mark it high. You have to borrow shares (and pay the owner) to be short and the owner of the shares can call them back on a whim. When something cannot be bought, this becomes a risk to the broker.

Brokers aren't in the business of taking on such risks.

As an aside, I don't have sympathy for people who have to face margin calls. It is part of the game.

(I think it is trading now as SVIBQ. If that is correct, the problem sorts itself out)
You're right, I forgot about recall risk.
Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Go Down Quote

      
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