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03-17-2023 , 04:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus122
You're a silly billy. Yes I know Credit Suisse is a Swiss bank.
They can't borrow any money from the Fed (a non-Swiss institution) Did you just post about them randomly in response to everyone laughing about you saying that the Fed borrowing and the Fed buying being the same?

If so. I apologize. I was not aware that this was the "bring up random things in response to people laughing at your last post" thread.

Last edited by BrianTheMick2; 03-17-2023 at 04:54 AM.
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03-17-2023 , 08:06 AM
[QUOTE=Jupiter0;58065552]I guess this is that in a picture


This data is March 1. Its march 17 now QE 5 or whatever you want to call it started last week so is irrelevant.
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03-17-2023 , 08:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
They can't borrow any money from the Fed (a non-Swiss institution) Did you just post about them randomly in response to everyone laughing about you saying that the Fed borrowing and the Fed buying being the same?

If so. I apologize. I was not aware that this was the "bring up random things in response to people laughing at your last post" thread.
The Fed borrowing and the Fed buying is the same. I mean theoretically okay the Fed could give the commercial banks their bonds back, but it's never going to happen.

You are just taking the Fed at their word.

If they give the bonds back to the commercial banks, the commercial banks are just straight bank in the predicament that they are in now.

People are completely delusional. They think oh well the Fed just raises interest rates to 6 percent and then the inflation just magically disappears and its back to zero percent interest rates again.

That doesn't make any sense. Why is the inflation rate just going to go back down to 2 percent and the Fed back to zero.

This is a total fantasy. In the 70s when inflation got started because of President Johnsons spending it took 46 years to get inflation back down to 2 percent.



Well we printed a lot more money during Covid and QE 1, 2 and 3 and 4 then during the 60s.

People who were calling for inflation because of QE were right. There was just a lag from the monetary policy. A lot of the inflation went into the stock market and housing and Bitcoin initially, a big rally in the dollar cooled commodity prices to some degree, but the the inflation is now out of the bottle. Getting it back in will be almost impossible. The Fed will be messing around with these rates for years and years and years trying to get inflation under control, so returning these borrowed bonds to the commercial banks aint ever going to happen.

When the Fed started QE and the balance sheet was a trillion they kept harping on about how they would sell the bonds back and reduce the balance sheet. It never happened. They tried and had to reverse course every time. The balance she is now 8 tillion heading to 10 trillion. This is the exact same thing. These bonds will be stuck on the Fed Balance sheet until they mature 10 to 30 years from now.

Last edited by Maximus122; 03-17-2023 at 09:17 AM.
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03-17-2023 , 09:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus122
The Fed borrowing and the Fed buying is the same. I mean theoretically okay the Fed could give the commercial banks their bonds back, but it's never going to happen.

You are just taking the Fed at their word.

If they give the bonds back to the commercial banks, the commercial banks are just straight bank in the predicament that they are in now.

People are completely delusional. They think oh well the Fed just raises interest rates to 6 percent and then the inflation just magically disappears and its back to zero percent interest rates again.

That doesn't make any sense. Why is the inflation rate just going to go back down to 2 percent and the Fed back to zero.

This is a total fantasy. In the 70s when inflation got started because of President Johnsons spending it took 46 years to get inflation back down to 2 percent.



Well we printed a lot more money during Covid and QE 1, 2 and 3 and 4 then during the 60s.

People who were calling for inflation because of QE were right. There was just a lag from the monetary policy. A lot of the inflation went into the stock market and housing and Bitcoin initially, a big rally in the dollar cooled commodity prices to some degree, but the the inflation is now out of the bottle. Getting it back in will be almost impossible. The Fed will be messing around with these rates for years and years and years trying to get inflation under control, so returning these borrowed bonds to the commercial banks aint ever going to happen.

When the Fed started QE and the balance sheet was a trillion they kept harping on about how they would sell the bonds back and reduce the balance sheet. It never happened. They tried and had to reverse course every time. The balance she is now 8 tillion heading to 10 trillion. This is the exact same thing. These bonds will be stuck on the Fed Balance sheet until they mature 10 to 30 years from now.
The long-term trend will always be inflation because that's the net effect of a debt-reliant economy and a reserve bank that accommodates it. You're way too focused on individual programs and balance sheets, as if they themselves are about to trigger some massive event. They won't. It's the cumulative trend that matters.
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03-17-2023 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus122
The Fed borrowing and the Fed buying is the same. I mean theoretically okay the Fed could give the commercial banks their bonds back, but it's never going to happen.
What do you mean "give the bonds back"? Do you think the Fed is taking possession?
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03-17-2023 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
What do you mean "give the bonds back"? Do you think the Fed is taking possession?
"Think" is a pretty strong word to use there.
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03-17-2023 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus122
The Fed borrowing and the Fed buying is the same
The Fed isn't the one borrowing.

Assuming that you meant "the banks borrowing from the Fed," it isn't remotely the same as the Fed buying the banks assets.

Didn't read the rest of your post, as an argument following from false premises cannot be worth reading.
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03-17-2023 , 04:39 PM
NYT: Fed Blocked Mention of Regulatory Flaws in Silicon Valley Bank Rescue

As U.S. regulators prepared to announce an extraordinary government rescue of depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank on Sunday, officials from the Biden administration pushed to formally spotlight shortcomings in financial regulation that they blamed for the banks’ rapid descent to insolvency, according to several people involved in or close to the discussions.

But Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, blocked efforts to include a phrase mentioning regulatory failures in the joint statement released early Sunday evening by the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/b...ation-svb.html
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03-17-2023 , 04:56 PM
If I'm reading that right, and between the lines, the administration wanted to say something about the 2018 rollbacks for mid-sized banks. I agree putting that in the joint statement would be improper. Fair game for the administration to do it on their own, though.
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03-17-2023 , 10:55 PM
Looks like a rumor at this point Credit Suisse in talks with UBS on buyout. Stock was looking doomed failing to hold near highs from Swiss Bank injection.

https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1636873858803179521
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03-18-2023 , 08:40 AM
I think they've been in talks off and on for quite a while now. It has been dying for years.

My source is that I think I read something about it last year or the year before, so take that into account.
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03-18-2023 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
I think they've been in talks off and on for quite a while now. It has been dying for years.

My source is that I think I read something about it last year or the year before, so take that into account.
yeah lol good point. I'm sure every competitor has been eyeballing their assets for some time. Seems it is getting likely the government or a big company is going to make a move here to save the equity with a combination or buyout like US did in 2008 w major financials. Since the stock will be sub $1any week at this point. I remember in 2008 they let the banks get down to like $2 or $3 range before they had to act. Bear Sterns was bought for $2 a share. Wachovia and Citigroup were similiar
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03-18-2023 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
yeah lol good point. I'm sure every competitor has been eyeballing their assets for some time. Seems it is getting likely the government or a big company is going to make a move here to save the equity with a combination or buyout like US did in 2008 w major financials. Since the stock will be sub $1any week at this point. I remember in 2008 they let the banks get down to like $2 or $3 range before they had to act. Bear Sterns was bought for $2 a share. Wachovia and Citigroup were similiar
FT reported that Black Rock was preparing a bid. Black Rock posted on Twitter basically, "oh, hell no."
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03-18-2023 , 08:45 PM
I wonder will the Fed hike rates next week. My feeling is no, because if they do 25 basis points they will have to do even more QE.

If they pause it will be an official admission that inflation has won.
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03-18-2023 , 09:27 PM
I had some QE for lunch. It was pretty good. I considered getting extra cheese on my QE, but I ended up getting it with sausage and pepperoni.
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03-18-2023 , 09:41 PM
It is QE Brian. The Fed Balance Sheet just expanded by 300 billion dollars in a week, wiping out 4 months of quantitative tightening.

The Fed is taking mortgages and treasuries onto their balance sheet and they are giving the banks cash.

I'm very sorry that you are one of the 99 percent of people that are in the bubble.

But, that's the thing about a bubble. You don't know you are in one until it pops.
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03-18-2023 , 09:53 PM
I agree. I had some QE for lunch.
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03-18-2023 , 10:13 PM
Hmmm, sorry I don't even know why I write on here to be honest.

Maybe it's a form of therapy.

Have a nice weekend.
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03-19-2023 , 01:06 PM
They're gonna change a law lol.

https://www.ft.com/content/ec4be743-...3-c2fbd7ea9cfd

https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/s...qTW-6wPoQ&s=09

⁦@UBS⁩ has offered to buy ⁦@CreditSuisse⁩ for up to $2 billion, and Swiss authorities plan to change the country’s laws to bypass a shareholder vote on the transaction as they rush to finalize a deal before Monday.

WTF
Quote:
Negotiators have given Credit Suisse the code name Cedar and UBS is referred to as Ulmus, according to people briefed on the matter.
lol

Last edited by Jupiter0; 03-19-2023 at 01:26 PM.
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03-19-2023 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus122
It is QE Brian. The Fed Balance Sheet just expanded by 300 billion dollars in a week, wiping out 4 months of quantitative tightening.

The Fed is taking mortgages and treasuries onto their balance sheet and they are giving the banks cash.

I'm very sorry that you are one of the 99 percent of people that are in the bubble.

But, that's the thing about a bubble. You don't know you are in one until it pops.
Fwiw I agree with you .
That transitory QE is at least as real as the previous transitory inflation .

It reduce volatility .
It reduce yield by preventing yield to go higher in a sense since it’s real value won’t be marked down .
Technically for the market , like u said, it’s a swap even it’s borrowed instead of being sold .
But the concept remain the same imo .
It won’t prevent them to raise interest rates next week imo.
Pretty much the idea I guess for that program , keep raising rates without creating further bank runs ?

Ps: that program can run up to 2 trillions right ?
Getting rid of potentially 2 trillions of collateral certainly should bring the prices up / yield down right ? -> QE !
If the banks uses it of course .

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 03-19-2023 at 03:19 PM.
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03-19-2023 , 04:10 PM
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03-19-2023 , 04:20 PM
UBS is buying Credit Suisse in bid to halt banking crisis.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/busin...cue/index.html

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...46069985751045



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03-19-2023 , 04:24 PM
It’s never fraud when governments does it
What happens for the people shorting Swiss bank ?
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03-20-2023 , 05:27 PM
Are we able to know which banks are using the discount window this time that caused this spike?


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03-20-2023 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Are we able to know which banks are using the discount window this time that caused this spike?


Puru Saxena replied to me on Twitter and said no.
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