Seems like interest rates have nowhere to go but up right? Not much of a bottom left.

Burry is shoring with calls on TTT - worth it to hold TTT or what's the best way to short interest rates as part of a larger portfolio strategy (would never go all in on a short, personally)

"Burry is shoring with calls on TTT"

The low volume & open interest on all strikes/expiries for TTT make that seem unlikely.

It's in his 13f

You do you, I'll do me, but do you trade bonds? I heard someone call for a 1.0% ten year the other day. Michael Burry has said a lot of dumb things, said a lot of smart things. I think it's ill-advised.

Makes sense as an edge for sure

at .25% rates, they have nowhere to go but up, right? seems like a lock to me but might be missing something

I guess it depends which duration u talk about ?

from now until then...

they've got to try to curb inflation right

What I mean is which bonds ?
5 years/10 years/ 30 years ?

No they don’t need to slow down inflation if raising rates would mean bankrupting 20 % of US company (zombies companies).

The US is in a very weak and complicated place with domestic and worldwide ( reserve currency ) issues.

For now surprisingly, imo the fed is doing a good job of containing both problems (deflation/Inflation).

Just don’t go all in on one or the other narrative .

20 YEAR:


ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.
This short ProShares ETF seeks a return that is -3x the return of its underlying benchmark (target) for a single day, as measured from one NAV calculation to the next. Due to the compounding of daily returns, holding periods of greater than one day can result in returns that are significantly different than the target return and ProShares' returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be more pronounced in funds with larger or inverse multiples and in funds with volatile benchmarks. Investors should monitor their holdings as frequently as daily. Investors should consult the prospectus for further details on the calculation of the returns and the risks associated with investing in this product.

I can't believe people still think they can outguess the IR market if they aren't already successful macro HFers [and a lot fewer of those than there used to be.]

6/21 - 1.48
now - 1.30
low in the interim - 1.15

There are NO one-way bets in liquid markets. Ever.

I can never understand the hubris

I don't know anything about anything, but can't they just go negative like they are starting to around the world?

It wouldn’t make sense with the reserve currency .
Imho, negative interest rates would be the endgame .
And we’re close with the 10 and 30 years treasuries .

japan, europe

generally if something seems like a lock in the most liquid markets in existence there's a good chance you're missing something

Why wouldn't a reserve currency have negative interest rates? Serious Q, not sarcastic..

Betting on interest rates NOT rising has been a "licence to print money" the last 14 years

USA though has more robust economy than many places with negative interest rates

Hoisington has interesting monthly bond write-up. Always bullish and usually right

It’s not a sure thing cause I suppose in the end markets always decides but :
Imho Everything else would probably ending up being negative as well hence a reset .

Ill make a Superbad analogy but hopefully the spirit of it will be understandable.
You can’t really have a negative ruler to measure for building something .
Or ill buy something with -1$ .

Foreign bonds can be negative cause they kinda of not the base of currencies and it’s artificial , not free market like Japan or Europe . (Even the US but it still positif at least).


Fwiw, looking into Basel 3 , making gold a tier 1 asset again might have something to do with this I don’t know but he can’t go to 0 , they would just find other things to start over .

Rates down, bonds up. That should help you figure out what to do…

not sure if i said this, but you have to get your timing right to make a big score.

the market assumes rates are going up.. although having actually looked at the yield curve here are the key numbers (and they were lower than i thought):

3 and 6 mo: 0.04%
1 year: 0.06%
1-1 forward (1 year rate one year from now): 0.38%
2 year: 0.22%
5 year: 0.78%

all those rates are basically the tbill or tbond (t note?) yield except the one forward i calculated.

i would really look into that one poster's argument that the key reserve currency's interest rates can't go negative (or for very long)...... if that's accurate, then to some degree it's a one-way bet. although i suppose if the key reserve assertation is accurate, then the market would discount that to a fairly large degree.

Fed has said and is creating policy like the repo exchange for 10y and 30y that’s aimed to flatten the curve. Do you actually understand his position? I think he had fairly complicated derivates of treasuries aimed at realizing a profit from inflation in the 1-5yr term but I hadn’t looked at it deeply tbh. He was using inflation protected treasuries (tips) as well i thought.