Tourism/entertainment sector got hit hard first.
Then REITs (See NYMT NRZ)

I am talking about 50%+ value loss.

Which sectors/companies are yet to receive Coronavirus wipe-out?

I think gambling stocks has much room to fall (excluding sportsbetting, which already got wiped out).

For example - Amaya and Flutter Entertainment PLC might be holding up well short-term, but when economy crashes further, there wont be enough money to gamble with.

See how 2008 recession treated most of gambling companies (888 Holdings PLC, William Hill plc,Kindred Group PLC)

WDFC
45+ trailing PE for a company that already wasn't growing
Some of their biggest customers are repair shops.
earnings on the 9th

LVMHF
22+ trailing PE
Moet, Hennessy, Louis Vuitton .. luxuries drop fast in recessions

SHOP, ETSY, AAPL, ZM, TSLA, MSFT, ISRG, YETI, LULU, NKE, all the overvalued cloud **** (most of it), chips need to fall too, China needs to fall.
edit: forgot PTON and DPZ too from the hype plays but gotta time the entry correctly in these

All silicon valley companies that rely on selling data and analytics to advertisers (GOOG, FB, TWTR, ZM, etc.).

Add to that NFLX and TSLA.

Why NFLX? It's going to be one of the few positive revenue and profit companies through all this. Shorting one of the few obvious safe havens seems suboptimal

Negative cashflow of 3.5b a quarter, overlevered, and relies on continuously issuing convertible debt to live. If credit markets seize up, as they would in a recession, NFLX is going to be in severe trouble especially if they have to settle their convertibles in cash.

I am going to wait until after the bear market rally to 3000 first before shorting though.

CCL could only get debt financing at 12.5% despite being investment grade. How is NFLX going to fare in such an environment?

Come to think of it, I think any silicon valley company issuing convertible debt will be in trouble. They have gotten away with it in the past because they didn't want to dilute equity given that most of their employees have options based compensation, but I think a reckoning is due. If their stock valuations go down and they have to settle in cash, then a lot of them are going to blow up.

3000 would be an almost full retracement, rather than a bear market rally. Seems like that ship sailed in March when the effects of the virus were still not being widely understood?

Shop has an insane balance sheet and almost no liabilities. I think you can find better shorts than that.

Re NFLX, their production is in trouble.
See these lists:
https://deadline.com/2020/03/coronav...ed-1202881997/
https://deadline.com/feature/movie-p...ms-1202882857/

Add to that stand up specials.

yep, shop got the best balance sheet and one of the best management teams both operations-wise and investor-hype-wise, but will still be a core short position in my portfolio. Reasons are valuation, growth story will be damaged as a lot of their customers will be hit first, not get the support bigger businesses get and big part of them will not come back after its over, then i think their steady state margins will be very different then what is expected altho all of this will play out in a longer time frame which is not optimal for me but thats why i play it with equity and not options and keep it a managable position.

Richly valued SaaS companies whose growth relies on sales to other small & medium companies and startups will have a huge problems.
Loads of these companies are swimming naked - can't even achieve non-gaap profit.

MDB immediately comes to mind

I think Ford and GM could go bankrupt. No sales. No production (forced by unions). Huge fixed expenses.

They might survive the lockdown but it's the other side that's ugly, coming out into a world with extremely depressed demand and price wars. They're force to lose vast sums of money during the shutdown and then come back up into a world with zero car depreciation because cars haven't been driven. It's pure long term loss.

Deutsche Bank posted a note indicating that both F and GM have roughly 15-17 weeks of cash left if current conditions continue. No report on TSLA, but I'm sure they are just fine.

IQ

Very hard to time

CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill

64 PE

While there are reasons to be optimistic about opportunities - chains taking market share from bankrupt indie places in general - and better prospects than other chains, this is a ridiculous valuation taking what's going on into account.

I felt the same about DRI and bought a $40 put when it was trading at about $40, within a week it went up to $65 - this is despite them not having any of their restaurants open during that time

i thought about Chipotle too but figured take away won't hurt them like it would supposedly hurt places like Olive Garden

Cracker Barrel also a great short too but like DRI the public still sees value and is pumping up the price - plan on getting aggro with long term puts on CBRL and DRI but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if I lost my shirt on them a second time round as well

if I had the experience and the roll I'd be selling TSLA June $1200 calls at $20 a pop like a madman right now, obviously could always go tits up but I don't even this TSLA can do that but they have defied everything - at this point I'd rather get call premiums from the overexuberant than buy puts, see tesla stop making cars and have the stock hit 900 again

VNQ

LiveNation (LYV) -- aka Ticketmaster. What's the absolute LAST thing that's going to get reopened? Mass gatherings like concerts and sporting events. LYV was a crappy company before this started, barely profitable with negative tangible book value. Now its revenue is going to zero for probably the rest of the year at least. Unless it gets some major bailouts, bankruptcy is in the cards.

Are you looking at 2021 put options, parttimepro?

I recently bought some July put options as an earnings report play.

more ridiculously valued restaurant stocks

ticker / PE TTM

WING / 146
NDLS / 135
HABT / 83
SHAK / 70
WEN / 29
SBUX / 24
MCD / 23

something something irrational something something solvent as always

Starbucks still has cars lined up like crazy I wouldn't worry about them. Concerts I would def be wary about. That is last thing I want to do even when quarantine is lifted.

People have been attempting to short this for quite some time - why now?