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Old 12-24-2018, 03:52 PM   #201
Onlydo2days
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

So the fed is done raising and will likely go back to cutting?
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:54 PM   #202
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Night of the Long Knives: we barely knew thee, Steve Mnuchin.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...icle-1.2892862

With Trump's ability to fire Powell kind of ambiguous, wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury Secretary is out before the end of this week.
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:58 PM   #203
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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Old 12-24-2018, 04:22 PM   #204
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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YOU HEARD IT HEAR FIRST PEOPLE! WE GOT PAWL TUDOO JOWNES IN HERE!!!


Yeah we did, until a mod went and banned him. I bet he wonders why he's still poor.
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:01 PM   #205
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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So the fed is done raising and will likely go back to cutting?
Negative. With UE at 3.7%, avg hourly wages increasing by 3.1% for 2018, with the boomers getting SS that is indexed to inflation basically the Fed is going to keep inflationary pressures in check. Fed has a very difficult task in keeping inflation in check while keeping the economy moving in a postive direction. There is no doubt the federal govt revenues rise and fall with the economic growth. Fed govt in the hole for mega $, running a huge deficit with a growing economy, and the boomers now getting SS and Medicare.
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Old 12-25-2018, 12:07 AM   #206
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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So the fed is done raising and will likely go back to cutting?
Bernanke waited until GDP took a big dive to cut. We always know after the fact exactly when the recession begins. I imagine Greenspan did the same thing. If they start cutting it's a clear signal a recession is here.
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:35 AM   #207
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

free ack shawn
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:45 AM   #208
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

there were probably reasons beyond this thread
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Old 12-27-2018, 10:12 AM   #209
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

My 401k has an automatic rebalance after changing future contributions so I got double ****ed by the rally yesterday. Nice little learning experience on that one lol.
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Old 12-27-2018, 05:41 PM   #210
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

largest worry

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Old 12-28-2018, 12:48 PM   #211
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Pretty amazing call by OP despite even if a bit overzealous. Sorry to hear he's been banned.

I guess these last 2 days of the year are supposed to go up due to end of the year buying by pension funds. Seems like January might be when the real excitement takes place, or at least might provide some clarity as to where this market is really going.
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Old 12-28-2018, 01:50 PM   #212
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

yeah I must say the timing of his thread was elite
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Old 12-28-2018, 06:22 PM   #213
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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Bernanke waited until GDP took a big dive to cut. We always know after the fact exactly when the recession begins. I imagine Greenspan did the same thing. If they start cutting it's a clear signal a recession is here.
C'mon the Fed is "behind the curve" a lot. A recession would probably create an excellent buying opportunity as well.
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Old 12-28-2018, 08:21 PM   #214
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Not out of the woods yet. Bearish close on the daily and the weekly looks a lot like mid-October.

Might still have to drop lower to find support.
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Old 12-28-2018, 10:27 PM   #215
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Just went back and looked at more data. Really bearish to end Friday afternoon like that imo.

In previous recessions / selloffs, interim or long-term lows have relatively strong closes on Friday afternoon (usually coupled with some kind of resolution relieving market worry during the sell-off).

Nothing really changed between Monday's close at 2351 and Friday afternoon's high at 2520, except the market was going up, and then heading into the weekend, everyone got nervous again.

Strong close above 2500 would have been bullish but with the weak close, no news, and 10Y yield making decisive new low, I'm inclined to believe next week will be bad.
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Old 01-02-2019, 04:35 AM   #216
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Substantial move in the yen and new low on 10Y yield overnight.

U.S. futures cratering -2%. Dow -500 Nasdaq -2.5%

Maybe new low below 2,300 this week.
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Old 01-02-2019, 04:48 AM   #217
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

I was just watching this as well noticing the Hang Seng had moved 2.77% lower and European markets are all down 1.5% to 2.5%. I'll go to sleep now with US futures down 2% and then between now and the time I wake up Trump will tweet that he and President Xi are great friends and then I'll wake up to the markets opening up a percent higher.
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Old 01-02-2019, 04:54 AM   #218
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

in the last week the trend has been futures down market goes up

we will see if that continues or not
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:03 AM   #219
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Trump is probably going to be firing shots at everyone this morning. President Xi is talking tough on Taiwan (ie it will be part of China, will use military force if necessary). Romney just blasted Trump's character. Pelosi regarding the shutdown. Only person that may be safe from Trump tweets today is Kim Jong Un. Markets will not like.
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Old 01-02-2019, 08:37 PM   #220
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Titanic move in dollar/yen tonight and looks like tomorrow will be the same gap down at the open all over again.

Doubt we will see a repeat of today's action. Probably down all day and close near session lows.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:47 PM   #221
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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Titanic move in dollar/yen tonight and looks like tomorrow will be the same gap down at the open all over again.

Doubt we will see a repeat of today's action. Probably down all day and close near session lows.
Nice call. Definitely looks like a bear flag on ES at the moment. Looks like we "should" test the lows quickly.
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Old 01-05-2019, 06:16 AM   #222
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

SP - 3000 (printscreen)
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:14 PM   #223
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

shortest bear ever? Man things seem strong here
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:18 PM   #224
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

wasn't quite a bear, was it? I think SPY touched a bear briefly if you go by intraday high/low, but don't they usually figure it with closing prices?
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:29 PM   #225
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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shortest bear ever? Man things seem strong here
The fed came in and mega pumped it last week. US economy remains strong too.

Whether the bear is over depends on whether the global economy is actually entering the recession phase or not. Your guess is as good as mine. PMI at 10am was very encouraging today with just a slight miss, that was a worrying number with a few big misses the last few data points. Market liked it.
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