1900 would be trillions. We're already a few trillion off highs.

The FED is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they don't stop hiking, the economy will take a dive. If they stop, the debt will keep rising and assets will keep inflating. Add to that the moronic actions of the government (trade war, corporate tax cuts, record deficit..), and they have to deliver a perfect balancing act.

Got out of my indexes today. Probably a little late. Changed my contributions to a conservative set and am basically checking out for a while.

uh, horrible timing.

holy **** , nice call so far,, im the biggest of perma bears usually (ask around ), but obviously its a little overboard your statement, but good call so far.

Tell me if I'm wrong but I think Powell/Fed wanted to establish independence from WH and knew how important that was with this rate hike. My guess is it gets hashed out behind the scenes and the fed turns dovish in 2019. They're not gonna gut asset prices with 2020 elections coming up.

So you sold low and will buy back high. If you were going to sell that time had already passed.

If you think this is the bottom then sure. If you think there will be a big rally then sure.

its not so bad the impact of the hikes isn't fully felt until debt is rolled over / reissued, which takes time so the past hikes alone will mean more tightening in the coming months even without a rate increase. they could decrease rates and the net effect would still be tightening for the next few months because most debt rolling over is still going to a much higher rate.

they dont have the tools for the job tho imo. interest rates are too blunt and delayed. I imagine they will be adding more tools eventually...like china does. Why clobber consumers that arent in debt, and the housing market which isnt in a bubble just to moderate a bubble in corporate debt? There are ways to go after corporate debt directly and spare the rest. They need to have the right pimple popping tools and not steamroll the whole economy just to address one potential problem

"thinking" will get you in trouble. why not just hold?

I bought some stuff today.

I'm not betting my future on this lol. If I was worried about being wrong I wouldn't have posted.

Statistics agree with this as view as well. Historical outflows from retail ETFs and historical inflows into money market funds. It's a pretty orderly out of stocks and into bonds.

The algo's would have to algo. Algo flash crash. Or I'm thinking the average American who hardly ever checks their account statements just happen to check their quarterly at the end of the month and everybody dumps. Probably be the algo's tho.

With tax selling season, figure early Jan a real likely time for that mini recovery before further plunge?

Only thing is is that TOO obvious?

It's impossible for the eventual bottom (however many years) to be sub 200 for spy right? Like that can't happen? I guess that's only 30 odd percent. Still seems crazy.

That's where it was 3 years ago. I think there's at least a 1% chance that Trump will do something crazy like invade Mexico or shut down trade with China completely. Pardon his friends and flee to Russia. Far from impossible imo.

I bought more. Will continue to do so.


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The president and his advisors would likely react in some stupid and unfair way.
I agree that they will need to be more proactive than just managing interest rates.

How much return did you miss out on since 2013?


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So you've been notoriously bearish but were long lotto calls instead of puts into one of the best weeks bears have had in recent memory? And you are throwing shade at WBF who correctly points out what a joke your posting history is on here? Congrats on whatever money you've made up to now, good luck holding onto it.

I did pretty well this week thanks for asking and it sounds like the guy who has cried wolf a million times couldn't clean up when he finally arrived. What a shame shuffle .

The difference between you and I is simple. I know I can't predict the future, hence the reason why reasonable people like myself won't take your bet.

You, on the other hand, have been trying to pick the doomsday future for 5 years (maybe longer, but I wasn't posting in here prior to 2013 as far as I can remember) and have been wrong. Meanwhile, I was cashing in on compounding maybe once in a lifetime returns. Now, you're finally right, and you think you can still predict the future. Its laughable that you're smug too.

I've been taking tiny bites. Still sitting on a decent amount of cash, because I had a big year earning.

If this were a lifetime race, I would be gigantic favorite going forward, and not only that, but I'm probably dusting you already.

Ill stand by my take. You’re a wolf cryer. Im actually not bragging, just stating facts.

Trying to help other posters and maybe yourself to see that you have as much credibility as the boy who cried wolf. That is all.


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Man he's a piece of work