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Old 12-05-2018, 09:27 AM   #101
ToothSayer
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Trump hating clown got completely owned there with pure facts. lol.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:37 AM   #102
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Owned himself putting a 30 day time frame on this.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:50 AM   #103
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

I mean this clown:
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Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
Also there is only so long that Trump can spout complete lies and people continue to listen. World record jobs! New steel plants! All the jobs are coming back to the USA! Worlds best economy in history! These are mostly lies and have kept the dumb money in the market while anyone with a clue sees the problems ahead.
Who just got whacked in the face by pure facts in the form of CBorder's graphs. Guess that's what happens when you listen to fake news.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:28 AM   #104
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

The Politard fantasy forum is thataway. This is the business forum.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:47 AM   #105
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

I meant stuff like this that at lest claims there are massive corporate and consumer debt bubbles:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/ther...s-economy.html

and this:

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/...nks-be-worried

Now maybe that's fake news. I really have no idea. But i'll let the MAGAtards carry on here. Also I'm not sure how cherry picking a few FRED graphs really whack me in the face. But I'm glad you got to jerk off in pure glee Tooth.
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:08 PM   #106
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

The corporate debt bubble is a real and scary thing. It's the most likely candidate for the liquidity killer that turns a normal recession into a GFC. Which is why it's been talked about a fair bit on BFI by yours truly.

The rest of what you said is bull****, driven by your deranged fact-free Trump-hate, and you got called on it.

The economy is really in incredible shape, jobs are the best in decades, and so on. It's surviving the (sadly, necessary) trade fear and tariff hit very admirably, which just speaks to its strength.

Debt isn't a large issue outside of the corporate junk bond bubble. It's nowhere near previous disaster levels or even concern levels.
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Old 12-06-2018, 03:39 PM   #107
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Looks like OP got banned, and this prediction is still never going to come true, but at least the market is giving him a good sweat.
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Old 12-06-2018, 06:27 PM   #108
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

S&P 500 is down 0.15% today. RIP
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Old 12-06-2018, 06:46 PM   #109
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Why did OP get banned; I liked the conversation.

Actually, the more I see how the market is trading the more I am inclined to believe 1900 is not an impossibility.

Today there was a lot of intervention to keep the stock market up. E-trade went down and refused to take orders from retail trying to exit the market, and there is evidence that the CME continued its emergency circuit breaker policy all throughout today of immediately executing buy orders, but putting a time delay on sell orders. Then the Fed came out to try to placate the markets and force the buy algorithms to rip the market up:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/feds...f-neutral.html

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1070776916083380224

All this intervention and tampering with the markets just to get flatline. That just makes the snapback that much more severe, and maybe, just maybe, it is enough to get us to 1900.

TBH, I have never seen so much intervention in my life, and all this because of a 2% move down. The market is going to break.
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Old 12-06-2018, 08:19 PM   #110
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Why did OP get banned; I liked the conversation.

Actually, the more I see how the market is trading the more I am inclined to believe 1900 is not an impossibility.

Today there was a lot of intervention to keep the stock market up. E-trade went down and refused to take orders from retail trying to exit the market, and there is evidence that the CME continued its emergency circuit breaker policy all throughout today of immediately executing buy orders, but putting a time delay on sell orders. Then the Fed came out to try to placate the markets and force the buy algorithms to rip the market up:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/feds...f-neutral.html

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1070776916083380224

All this intervention and tampering with the markets just to get flatline. That just makes the snapback that much more severe, and maybe, just maybe, it is enough to get us to 1900.

TBH, I have never seen so much intervention in my life, and all this because of a 2% move down. The market is going to break.
You ask me, they broke the market a long time ago. But just about everyone is ignorant and or apathetic. So it appears to work.

Which, interestingly with markets, if it appears to be working, one could make the argument that it is working. The question is, how effectively / efficiently is it working?

From a practical perspective, you are very, very unlikely to have really good financial markets with fiat currency...
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Old 12-06-2018, 08:54 PM   #111
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Today there was a lot of intervention to keep the stock market up. E-trade went down and refused to take orders from retail trying to exit the market, and there is evidence that the CME continued its emergency circuit breaker policy all throughout today of immediately executing buy orders, but putting a time delay on sell orders. Then the Fed came out to try to placate the markets and force the buy algorithms to rip the market up:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/feds...f-neutral.html

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1070776916083380224

All this intervention and tampering with the markets just to get flatline. That just makes the snapback that much more severe, and maybe, just maybe, it is enough to get us to 1900.

TBH, I have never seen so much intervention in my life, and all this because of a 2% move down. The market is going to break.
Careful with the SEO guy. He sees patterns a bit too much.

The intervention is extraordinary though. If Wall Street is highly leveraged on the wrong assets then a break where liquidity dies because of counterparty risk/forced de-risking could be a real thing. I still think there's a lot of money out there wanting to buy the (real) dip. It's a pick the bottom of the flash crash market, not capitulate to 1900 market.
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Old 12-06-2018, 09:15 PM   #112
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Careful with the SEO guy. He sees patterns a bit too much.

The intervention is extraordinary though. If Wall Street is highly leveraged on the wrong assets then a break where liquidity dies because of counterparty risk/forced de-risking could be a real thing. I still think there's a lot of money out there wanting to buy the (real) dip. It's a pick the bottom of the flash crash market, not capitulate to 1900 market.
Of course there are still tons of reasons why 1900 is unreasonable, but I think the probability went from "utterly absurd impossibility" to merely absurd.

It's a perfect storm involving death of shorty from Trump/Powell pumps, hedge funds getting blown up, massive interventions, yield curve inversions and other markets like the FTSE and Nikkei getting soul crushed now while the US somehow stays afloat. That has to rectify one way or the other.

Surprising that VIX is only in the mid 20s. It screams complacency right before the storm comes in.
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Old 12-06-2018, 09:28 PM   #113
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Tooth celebrating the crypto bubble bursting while ignoring the very real bubble and warning signs in the US is the height of irony and pretty much sums him up perfectly.
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Old 12-06-2018, 09:37 PM   #114
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Quote:
Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
Tooth celebrating the crypto bubble bursting while ignoring the very real bubble and warning signs in the US is the height of irony and pretty much sums him up perfectly.
What the **** are you talking about? If anything I've been overly bearish on US equities the past 1.5 years. I've talked about the corporate debt bubble frequently, which is GFC level waiting to implode. The rest of what you claim is troubled is pure bull****. The American economy is very strong on fundamentals.

Once again your hate clouds your mind and you get facts 180 degrees wrong. Get a clue, loser.
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:10 PM   #115
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Quote:
Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
Tooth celebrating the crypto bubble bursting while ignoring the very real bubble and warning signs in the US is the height of irony and pretty much sums him up perfectly.
What bubble are we referring to in US equities just so we all understand? Not sure I get the irony or comparison.
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Old 12-07-2018, 12:36 AM   #116
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

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What bubble are we referring to in US equities just so we all understand? Not sure I get the irony or comparison.
I think he's just tilt posting and is still butthurt over TS attacking his Trump whining.
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Old 12-07-2018, 01:20 PM   #117
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Brainard from the fed weighs in. A good summary of the current state of the world. Key bit on corporate debt:
Quote:
In contrast, we are seeing elevated vulnerabilities in the nonfinancial business sector.3 Business borrowing has risen more rapidly than GDP for much of the current expansion and now sits near its historical peak (figure 6). The run-up in corporate debt has brought the ratio of debt to assets close to its highest level in two decades on an overall basis, and this is also true for speculative-grade and unrated firms (figure 7). And whereas previously, mostly high-earning firms with relatively low leverage were taking on additional debt, analysis of detailed balance sheet information indicates that, over the past year, firms with high leverage, high interest expense ratios, and low earnings and cash holdings have been increasing their debt loads the most. Historically, high leverage has been linked to elevated financial distress and retrenchment by businesses in economic downturns.

Regarding corporate bonds outstanding, recent years have witnessed little change in the relative shares of investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds. Credit quality has deteriorated within the investment-grade segment, where the share of bonds rated at the lowest investment-grade level has reached near-record levels. As of mid-2018, around 35 percent of corporate bonds outstanding were at the lowest end of the investment-grade segment, which amounts to about $2-1/4 trillion. In comparison, the share of high-yield bonds outstanding that are rated "deep junk" has stayed flat at about one-third from 2015 to 2018, well below the financial crisis peak of 45 percent.
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Old 12-07-2018, 03:37 PM   #118
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Is there a way to bet on BBB- bonds vs. other tiers? I think a long-BBB/short-BBB-/long-BB+ butterfly could be a winner.
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Old 12-07-2018, 03:44 PM   #119
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Monday is your make or break day OP. Market is going to gap down and if it bounces, you lose. If it breaks, you win.

Spoiler:
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Old 12-07-2018, 04:52 PM   #120
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

I know it's hard to figure out but:

1. I make a post saying the US Economy has a lot of struggles ahead and that there are lots of warning signs for the future including having a clueless idiot at the helm

2. Whoever posts random FRED graphs that are loosely related to my post

3. Tooth celebrates gleefully about how about how badly I had "been put in my place".

4. Anyone with a brain assumes this means that Tooth disagrees with my basic hypothesis from #1 and thinks the US economy is fine.

5. Tooth has spent years telling everyone who will listen how crypto and BTC is a ponzi and is in a massive bubble (Duh at least to the bubble part from late 2017-present).

6. I make the observation that Tooth seems to be able to rightly see the bubble in areas that he doesn't like and not in areas that he spends his life crowing about his prowess in without any real evidence.

Hope that helps you guys out. I know that is pretty complicated stuff.

Also most asset classes are in some form of bubble right now (Almost every asset class is at all time highs or close, maybe MAGA really does work or maybe this should be a warning sign) due to cheap credit over the last 10 years. That has to unwind at some point. Whether it is now or later.
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Old 12-07-2018, 04:59 PM   #121
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

Although now I see is that Tooth's response was just that of a triggered Trump fanboi and not some type of actual comment on the content of my post. My bad. Hope you can keep up the illusion of your intelligence for the few disciples you have here bud! BFI Thought Leader LMAO.
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Old 12-07-2018, 05:11 PM   #122
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

I enjoy the summarizing of how you view the situation but that doesn't accurately describe anything.

1. If anything I've been overly bearish on US equities and have certainly seen them as a bubble. I recommended short NFLX and AMZN 20-50% lower than they are now, for example. So your characterization of me not seeing bubbles in other things is bull****.

2. I was laughing at how hard you got whacked in the face from this politarding post that you got ass-backwards. You are so neck deep in your Trump hate you don't even realize how it's making you deranged. This post is simply comically wrong in every sentence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
Also there is only so long that Trump can spout complete lies and people continue to listen. World record jobs! New steel plants! All the jobs are coming back to the USA! Worlds best economy in history! These are mostly lies and have kept the dumb money in the market while anyone with a clue sees the problems ahead.
This is you being the village idiot, nothing more, and Clayton dispatched you very nicely. It was so efficient it was funny. I correctly noted the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
Although now I see is that Tooth's response was just that of a triggered Trump fanboi and not some type of actual comment on the content of my post. My bad. Hope you can keep up the illusion of your intelligence for the few disciples you have here bud! BFI Thought Leader LMAO.
The "Thought Leader" is a joke as people were saying a while back how much they hate the term/think it's stupid. As do I.

Once again your hatred is causing you to get the analysis wrong. You might want to work on that. If you don't have a clear-eyed view of Trump you won't have a clear-eyed view of news events and how they'll unfold - like the trade war that the Trump haters (who see him as an empty shell playing to base) thought was just him playing to his base and not driven by genuine good-hearted conviction. You make that mistake because they don't understand him and the drive behind.

You can be a cuck all you like in the politics forum, but if you don't get your **** together your deranged hate will cause you to get the analysis wrong. As you did here, with comical results.

The economy is far better because of Trump's actions and is doing extremely well in a real, fundamental way, part of it from deregulation and business confidence driven by Trump. If you don't see that you are stupid/brainwashed. The trade war is real and driven by (deep and correct) conviction and Trump intends to bring China to its knees, which will have bad effects on the markets eventually.

I agree with you generally about brewing storms like corporate debt. The commentary I linked from Brainard is an excellent and correct analysis of the world.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-07-2018 at 05:20 PM.
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Old 12-07-2018, 05:23 PM   #123
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

I don't think I threw the first stone here (Hint: you did when you called me a clown) but making yourself into a victim and lashing out is pretty much MAGA 101 so carry on good sir.
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Old 12-07-2018, 05:33 PM   #124
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

All this politics language. Try viewing the world without a politics filters and it'll be simpler, less hateful, and you'll be more correct.

I was laughing because politics immersion has completely twisted your view of something you could easily grasp correctly given your intelligence if only you weren't viewing it through a Trump-hate politics filter.

Trump has been great for the economy. That's an open and shut case. He's been incrementally bad for debt and is probably going to be bad for the stock market as his (necessary) trade war with China harms the global order over time.

I kinda like you so I'm not having a go, it's just really funny when an intelligent person's mind gets completely 180-degree kazooed by dumb hottakes from fake news such that they end up posting analysis that is pure drivel and easily falsified by a few simple graphs. Forgive my laughter.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-07-2018 at 05:39 PM.
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Old 12-19-2018, 04:08 PM   #125
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Re: S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month

This will actually happen now. Think Fed has not only told the markets they don't care if price declines, even they want asset prices lower, but they have probably lost the credibility of the markets now. Can probably induce short covering rallies but doubtful the market will ever get behind them again.

Watershed moment in financial history today as Congress and the white house will come calling after the Fed induced crash. Ron Paul may finally get his wish.
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