Tooth celebrating the crypto bubble bursting while ignoring the very real bubble and warning signs in the US is the height of irony and pretty much sums him up perfectly.

What the **** are you talking about? If anything I've been overly bearish on US equities the past 1.5 years. I've talked about the corporate debt bubble frequently, which is GFC level waiting to implode. The rest of what you claim is troubled is pure bull****. The American economy is very strong on fundamentals.

Once again your hate clouds your mind and you get facts 180 degrees wrong. Get a clue, loser.

What bubble are we referring to in US equities just so we all understand? Not sure I get the irony or comparison.

I think he's just tilt posting and is still butthurt over TS attacking his Trump whining.

Brainard from the fed weighs in. A good summary of the current state of the world. Key bit on corporate debt:

Is there a way to bet on BBB- bonds vs. other tiers? I think a long-BBB/short-BBB-/long-BB+ butterfly could be a winner.

I know it's hard to figure out but:

1. I make a post saying the US Economy has a lot of struggles ahead and that there are lots of warning signs for the future including having a clueless idiot at the helm

2. Whoever posts random FRED graphs that are loosely related to my post

3. Tooth celebrates gleefully about how about how badly I had "been put in my place".

4. Anyone with a brain assumes this means that Tooth disagrees with my basic hypothesis from #1 and thinks the US economy is fine.

5. Tooth has spent years telling everyone who will listen how crypto and BTC is a ponzi and is in a massive bubble (Duh at least to the bubble part from late 2017-present).

6. I make the observation that Tooth seems to be able to rightly see the bubble in areas that he doesn't like and not in areas that he spends his life crowing about his prowess in without any real evidence.

Hope that helps you guys out. I know that is pretty complicated stuff.

Also most asset classes are in some form of bubble right now (Almost every asset class is at all time highs or close, maybe MAGA really does work or maybe this should be a warning sign) due to cheap credit over the last 10 years. That has to unwind at some point. Whether it is now or later.

Although now I see is that Tooth's response was just that of a triggered Trump fanboi and not some type of actual comment on the content of my post. My bad. Hope you can keep up the illusion of your intelligence for the few disciples you have here bud! BFI Thought Leader LMAO.

I enjoy the summarizing of how you view the situation but that doesn't accurately describe anything.

1. If anything I've been overly bearish on US equities and have certainly seen them as a bubble. I recommended short NFLX and AMZN 20-50% lower than they are now, for example. So your characterization of me not seeing bubbles in other things is bull****.

2. I was laughing at how hard you got whacked in the face from this politarding post that you got ass-backwards. You are so neck deep in your Trump hate you don't even realize how it's making you deranged. This post is simply comically wrong in every sentence.
This is you being the village idiot, nothing more, and Clayton dispatched you very nicely. It was so efficient it was funny. I correctly noted the same.

The "Thought Leader" is a joke as people were saying a while back how much they hate the term/think it's stupid. As do I.

Once again your hatred is causing you to get the analysis wrong. You might want to work on that. If you don't have a clear-eyed view of Trump you won't have a clear-eyed view of news events and how they'll unfold - like the trade war that the Trump haters (who see him as an empty shell playing to base) thought was just him playing to his base and not driven by genuine good-hearted conviction. You make that mistake because they don't understand him and the drive behind.

You can be a cuck all you like in the politics forum, but if you don't get your **** together your deranged hate will cause you to get the analysis wrong. As you did here, with comical results.

The economy is far better because of Trump's actions and is doing extremely well in a real, fundamental way, part of it from deregulation and business confidence driven by Trump. If you don't see that you are stupid/brainwashed. The trade war is real and driven by (deep and correct) conviction and Trump intends to bring China to its knees, which will have bad effects on the markets eventually.

I agree with you generally about brewing storms like corporate debt. The commentary I linked from Brainard is an excellent and correct analysis of the world.

I don't think I threw the first stone here (Hint: you did when you called me a clown) but making yourself into a victim and lashing out is pretty much MAGA 101 so carry on good sir.

All this politics language. Try viewing the world without a politics filters and it'll be simpler, less hateful, and you'll be more correct.

I was laughing because politics immersion has completely twisted your view of something you could easily grasp correctly given your intelligence if only you weren't viewing it through a Trump-hate politics filter.

Trump has been great for the economy. That's an open and shut case. He's been incrementally bad for debt and is probably going to be bad for the stock market as his (necessary) trade war with China harms the global order over time.

I kinda like you so I'm not having a go, it's just really funny when an intelligent person's mind gets completely 180-degree kazooed by dumb hottakes from fake news such that they end up posting analysis that is pure drivel and easily falsified by a few simple graphs. Forgive my laughter.

We're not getting to 1900 lol.

Sorry to everyone who wants to cry about the Fed not caring about the SPX. That's absolutely not part of their mandate. If you want to blame someone for this blame Trump for replacing Yellen with Powell.

The SP 500's PE ratio is still 19.22... Which is absurd. We are so far from fair valuations on equities right now that freaking out about it falling a little bit by the Fed would be INCREDIBLY foolish. If anything we need this correction to return to some semblance of sanity... It could drop to 2000 and it still wouldn't be a good reason for the Fed to even pump the brakes. The median historical PE of 14.73 would value the S&P 500 at 1925.

This seems umm, a bit over dramatic.

It's shuffle, go back and reread what he was posting in 2015. I don't want to dismiss the action just the source of the content. Better discussion would be a thread like this on what to do if it happens: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...ategy-1720479/

I think 1900 is improbable this month but not impossible. 2300 by EOY is not an unreasonable forecast.

The fed is being blamed for this, but in reality it's a combination of a global slowdown, lack of shorty to hold up the market due to QE and Trump pumps, market being held up by garbage stocks while everything else is making lows, foreign banks imploding, etc.

I think we flush here then bounce all the way back to 2600-2700 starting sometime around end of Jan/start of Feb, and then we flush again to 1900 sometime next year.

19.2 doesn't look too bad historically. Don't compare it to an average going back 120 years though.
http://www.multpl.com/

More importantly, if you look at individual companies, you see outliers like Amazon taking the ratio higher.

Wait until tomorrow when the aftershocks finish, then back up the truck. 1900 Lol.

You're talking to a value guy in the transportation industry who considers a PE of 12 to be pretty fair for the average S&P 500 component. 15-18 for the really top shelf companies.

You might have a point about the outliers though. I hadn't really thought about the ramifications of Amazon not actually taking profits.

On the other hand, PE is skewed by the unnecessary tax cuts so looking at other metrics is very important.

What's the catalyst?

companies are expensing all capex in-year with new tax rules + they are still expensing old depreciation...this makes pe's look higher than they otherwise would..

also we have 1 quarter using old tax rules which means profits for that quarter are 15% less.

the p/e cant be compared to historical so easily. It is lower than it looks right now

Ray Dalio said anyone holding cash would feel like an idiot at the beginning of this year and now it turns out Bridgewater was short for the majority of 2018. Tepper is a smart guy, and maybe, just maybe, he is saying what benefits him and not the audience he is speaking to.

And that's probably not self serving at all

going from yellen pressers to powell pressers is like going from drinking gravel to drinking the finest red wine. dude is so velvety smooth.

It would be hilarious if he's actually right. The laughter would take the pain off of millions of people losing billions of dollars.