You're tilted. I own you.

Yes, yes, for the umpteenth time, you have no idea what you're doing and could never hope to find 2000:1 on this trade. We know. You're repeating yourself, NPC.

The sucker is you.

You're claiming there's 2000:1 available at the 2200 strike for the S&P 500 one month out? I'd love to know what that instrument is, because I'd get rich by arbing it.

Lol, hell no. That's ******ed.

You let me know if you ever figure out the equivalent trade, junior. There might be hope for you yet.

this thread sucks

Long and unhedged?

I hate people who don’t have the balls to act on their convictions but the arrogance to never doubt them.

Just for the record asap isn’t the one without the balls. One person said something was 70% but wants 6:1 and another person makes a thread and wants 2000:1 for a smaller move then he said will happen... if you can’t convince yourself to actually have a position at market price then don’t try convincing others.

K here’s some math for you. I’ll give you 1:1 on up to a million action that Spx doesn’t go under 2000 during 2019 escrowed by anyone respectable. So you make 200k on average with very little risk since it is 70% chance of happening according to you. Easy money right? Or maybe you don’t actually believe the bull**** you’re spewing and have half a brain so you know not to actually follow what you say.

Anyone that uses the word “cuck” seriously, is definitely suspect.


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Your a clown. Ive been here forever and probable posted in the same thread as ASAP twice during that time but u caught us. Maybe your insecurities about the only person on your side just joined account like a week ago are coming out.

Do you own OTM puts or binary options that back up your statements??? I mean you say something is 70% to happen and markets pricing it at 17% and there’s been no significant buying action on your side. I know if I had that much conviction about something there’d have been some orders that would show that. Only reason there wouldn’t be is the person saying it doesn’t believe it or is broke as f*ck

Shuffle, calling the crash since 2013. tm.


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This thread is aids but there are some real serious concerns with the future of the US economy. Asset prices have inflated again in the last decade due to cheap money that is coming to an end and without the underlying fundamentals to back it up.

Seeing oil off 30+% is likely just the start. RE and the massive debt bubble is likely to be hit hard by rising interest rates. Many consumers and businesses are on razor thin edges and seeing their aprs rise on their adjustable rate debt over the last year is putting the squeeze on.

Not saying we will see a crash but it is hard to see this not being the top for a while. Having a complete imbecile who puts policies into place he doesn't understand the basics of much less the ramificstions is another huge problem that we haven't really paid this price for yet.

Then there is the fact that the govt/fed is low on ammo if we do slide into another recession. We are already running massive deficits in good times now so stimulus is unlikely and what are they going to do? Take rates back to 0%?

Also there is only so long that Trump can spout complete lies and people continue to listen. World record jobs! New steel plants! All the jobs are coming back to the USA! Worlds best economy in history! These are mostly lies and have kept the dumb money in the market while anyone with a clue sees the problems ahead.

Again I dont necessarily think we are headed for a crash or a recession but it is unlikely we see the markets continue to advance unimpeded like they have for years and there is some risk of a crash/recession. Certainly more than we have seen in a while.

I wouldn't bet on that for a while:





The jobs are here, and have been. No one wants them:

Trump hating clown got completely owned there with pure facts. lol.

Owned himself putting a 30 day time frame on this.

I mean this clown:
Who just got whacked in the face by pure facts in the form of CBorder's graphs. Guess that's what happens when you listen to fake news.

The Politard fantasy forum is thataway. This is the business forum.

I meant stuff like this that at lest claims there are massive corporate and consumer debt bubbles:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/ther...s-economy.html

and this:

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/...nks-be-worried

Now maybe that's fake news. I really have no idea. But i'll let the MAGAtards carry on here. Also I'm not sure how cherry picking a few FRED graphs really whack me in the face. But I'm glad you got to jerk off in pure glee Tooth.

The corporate debt bubble is a real and scary thing. It's the most likely candidate for the liquidity killer that turns a normal recession into a GFC. Which is why it's been talked about a fair bit on BFI by yours truly.

The rest of what you said is bull****, driven by your deranged fact-free Trump-hate, and you got called on it.

The economy is really in incredible shape, jobs are the best in decades, and so on. It's surviving the (sadly, necessary) trade fear and tariff hit very admirably, which just speaks to its strength.

Debt isn't a large issue outside of the corporate junk bond bubble. It's nowhere near previous disaster levels or even concern levels.

S&P 500 is down 0.15% today. RIP

Why did OP get banned; I liked the conversation.

Actually, the more I see how the market is trading the more I am inclined to believe 1900 is not an impossibility.

Today there was a lot of intervention to keep the stock market up. E-trade went down and refused to take orders from retail trying to exit the market, and there is evidence that the CME continued its emergency circuit breaker policy all throughout today of immediately executing buy orders, but putting a time delay on sell orders. Then the Fed came out to try to placate the markets and force the buy algorithms to rip the market up:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/feds...f-neutral.html

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1070776916083380224

All this intervention and tampering with the markets just to get flatline. That just makes the snapback that much more severe, and maybe, just maybe, it is enough to get us to 1900.

TBH, I have never seen so much intervention in my life, and all this because of a 2% move down. The market is going to break.

You ask me, they broke the market a long time ago. But just about everyone is ignorant and or apathetic. So it appears to work.

Which, interestingly with markets, if it appears to be working, one could make the argument that it is working. The question is, how effectively / efficiently is it working?

From a practical perspective, you are very, very unlikely to have really good financial markets with fiat currency...

Careful with the SEO guy. He sees patterns a bit too much.

The intervention is extraordinary though. If Wall Street is highly leveraged on the wrong assets then a break where liquidity dies because of counterparty risk/forced de-risking could be a real thing. I still think there's a lot of money out there wanting to buy the (real) dip. It's a pick the bottom of the flash crash market, not capitulate to 1900 market.

Of course there are still tons of reasons why 1900 is unreasonable, but I think the probability went from "utterly absurd impossibility" to merely absurd.

It's a perfect storm involving death of shorty from Trump/Powell pumps, hedge funds getting blown up, massive interventions, yield curve inversions and other markets like the FTSE and Nikkei getting soul crushed now while the US somehow stays afloat. That has to rectify one way or the other.

Surprising that VIX is only in the mid 20s. It screams complacency right before the storm comes in.