S&P should crash to 1900 or so within the next month
12-02-2018
, 12:10 PM
P/S is usually a crap indicator especially at the individual stock level, but it is a good bubble indicator, and we have matched to blown past the 90s bubble.
Even the GoGo 60s weren't as bad as today.
I do a modified Black Swan strategy, so most of my money at time 0 is sitting in short term Treasuries until something hits. For now, all of my new play chips are going into short dated OTM VIX calls.
12-02-2018
, 01:02 PM
I can't give that one away exactly since I haven't seen anyone else put it together, but I'll give some hints on how to find it.
Someone has created a stock market mania/panic indicator that measures bubble size and the expected crash depth, but that was not their explicit intention.
This has traditionally been the ultimate cause of the end of these between recession crashes, but it doesn't explain 2010 and 2011:
The true explicit cause for the start of the crash phase is 100% economic and has a 100% success rate, and it goes back to the 1920 crash at least.
That mania indicator suggests a 1987 sized crash or worse, and you can see it in the crash shapes of 1929, 1987, the false start earlier this year, and now: a one month decline from the top of about 10%, about a 50% retracement, meandering downwards, then a soul sucking crash over a few days. All we're waiting on now is the final leg of the crash unless the true economic cause reverses course hard.
Though this is 100% economic, the phenomenon shows up in simpler technical indicators like Eliades's "Sign of the Bear". https://justsignals.blogspot.com/201...n-of-bear.html His timing is less precise than the economic cause which finally fired again recently. All the stars have to be in alignment for the crash phase to begin, and we're pretty much there.
In terms of the economics, which are everything to this type of crash, they're all firing hard. And now, the Fed is nuking housing, autos, energy, semis, and capital goods. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, that's holding up the market is residual mania. Trump's tariffs and Iranian oil sanctions were the cause for the delay from early this year to now by holding up manufacturing, energy, and energy associated industries as everything else went to hell, but he's blinked hard on those, so we may start hearing about even further supplier orders being cut tomorrow in addition to what's been coming out of hardware tech like the semis.
So we have a Fed tightening cycle coming to an end which is smashing everyone across the globe; another major Chinese downturn like 2015-2016 that has nothing to do with tariffs and should persist for another year at least; and now Trump going from jerking the economy upwards with tariffs and Iranian sanctions to pulling it back down hard by totally caving on Iran and probably halting his rescue of US labor participation. There is nothing good on the horizon, and the mania persisting will only hurt the economy more.
The economy always wins.
Someone has created a stock market mania/panic indicator that measures bubble size and the expected crash depth, but that was not their explicit intention.
This has traditionally been the ultimate cause of the end of these between recession crashes, but it doesn't explain 2010 and 2011:
The true explicit cause for the start of the crash phase is 100% economic and has a 100% success rate, and it goes back to the 1920 crash at least.
That mania indicator suggests a 1987 sized crash or worse, and you can see it in the crash shapes of 1929, 1987, the false start earlier this year, and now: a one month decline from the top of about 10%, about a 50% retracement, meandering downwards, then a soul sucking crash over a few days. All we're waiting on now is the final leg of the crash unless the true economic cause reverses course hard.
Though this is 100% economic, the phenomenon shows up in simpler technical indicators like Eliades's "Sign of the Bear". https://justsignals.blogspot.com/201...n-of-bear.html His timing is less precise than the economic cause which finally fired again recently. All the stars have to be in alignment for the crash phase to begin, and we're pretty much there.
In terms of the economics, which are everything to this type of crash, they're all firing hard. And now, the Fed is nuking housing, autos, energy, semis, and capital goods. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, that's holding up the market is residual mania. Trump's tariffs and Iranian oil sanctions were the cause for the delay from early this year to now by holding up manufacturing, energy, and energy associated industries as everything else went to hell, but he's blinked hard on those, so we may start hearing about even further supplier orders being cut tomorrow in addition to what's been coming out of hardware tech like the semis.
So we have a Fed tightening cycle coming to an end which is smashing everyone across the globe; another major Chinese downturn like 2015-2016 that has nothing to do with tariffs and should persist for another year at least; and now Trump going from jerking the economy upwards with tariffs and Iranian sanctions to pulling it back down hard by totally caving on Iran and probably halting his rescue of US labor participation. There is nothing good on the horizon, and the mania persisting will only hurt the economy more.
The economy always wins.
12-03-2018
, 12:09 PM
12-03-2018
, 12:53 PM
Despite prices plunging which mostly only happens when manufacturing in general is going down, national manufacturing reports are hanging in there:
But that report doesn't take into account all the lost business expectations due to Trump blinking on tariffs.I see no source of sentiment anymore. Manufacturing and, to a much lesser extent, defense were the only parts of the economy not turning down. Gone now.
12-03-2018
, 01:03 PM
Side bet on what exactly? That you've made these calls for years and seem to show up when it's time to buy? You say OP is over zealous yet you put a 70% confidence on recession/OP target by the end of 2019? Don't see a lot of difference in the calls except that they both are likely to be wrong.
12-04-2018
, 10:48 AM
12-04-2018
, 01:03 PM
12-04-2018
, 02:30 PM
Brutal way to make some shekels. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mj0O If your heroes aren't Chanos and Bass or maybe Greenblatt, I think we're done here.
And if FANG isn't your go to short, it's time to consider another strategy.
It was never expensive at it ever was, but consumers bowed out in the 2015-2016 China crash then all the same. Isn't demand elasticity fun to watch in action?
Theory would suggest they can now kiss unit growth goodbye. Maybe that's why they've elected not to break them out anymore. Just trust them. They care about you. Really.
I can read everything into it. Discretionary spending is dominated by those with discretionary income. Apple's herd of customers may buy less units, but they'll spend what they've always spent adjusted for income growth until they can't and typify your garden variety NPC. Now, they can't. If they can't, no one else can.
And if FANG isn't your go to short, it's time to consider another strategy.
Quote:
And no, the premium iPhone has never been this expensive. It's been trending up ever since 2016. You now pay $1449 for the top end flagship model now. Their best phone has gone from costing the average weekly pay to 2x the average weekly pay in three years. That's a huge jump.
You can't read anything at all about consumer discretionary trends from rumors about iPhone sales.
You can't read anything at all about consumer discretionary trends from rumors about iPhone sales.
Theory would suggest they can now kiss unit growth goodbye. Maybe that's why they've elected not to break them out anymore. Just trust them. They care about you. Really.I can read everything into it. Discretionary spending is dominated by those with discretionary income. Apple's herd of customers may buy less units, but they'll spend what they've always spent adjusted for income growth until they can't and typify your garden variety NPC. Now, they can't. If they can't, no one else can.