I reserve the right to delay this crash prediction.

Want to bet on it?

Already am. Yummy OTM VIX calls.

We'll see. It should've happened during the Jan-Feb correction but got stopped for reasons.

VIX calls is the dumbest way to bet on this for about 3 different reasons.

That depends.

And you wouldn’t just buy OTM SPY puts if u know this because..... you hate money? Or maybe your not as confident as you are portraying.

Dec 21 220s puts are .14 so invest 14k and make and make 3mil. Seems pretty easy to me.

No, just concavity.

Confidence has increased hence the short dated VIX OTM calls. It's unlikely that this could be prolonged again, but it was also unlikely that it would be prolonged early last year and early this year.

I'm not as bearish, but I think 2300s by end of Jan is not an unreasonable prediction.
Since I'm virtually all short, 1900 would be awesome.

We'll know within the next 2-3 weeks.

YOU HEARD IT HEAR FIRST PEOPLE! WE GOT PAWL TUDOO JOWNES IN HERE!!!

Sick thread

why?

For the same reason 1987, 1998, 2010, and 2011 crashed.

There are others, but they're either blended with other bubbles, have a totally different bubble cause, or were too small to be relevant or even distinguish from noise.

TELL ME MO' MISTA PAWL TUDA JOWNES!!!!

I am missing something - because on my trade platform Dec 21 220 puts are .07

Still not enough convexity.

Trump-Xi dinner just now will put a huge bid under the market. Combined with confirmed cuck fed chair as of Wednesday (which ripped the market off lows and gave it the excuse it was looking for to buy the correction), this is a buy up Christmas imo.

Long term you have the corporate debt bubble and strong signs of global slowdown but this is more than enough to hold that off for a long time.

Best news you could hope for if you're a trader. Another mini bubble would be very sweet.

The Chinese said they have a deal not to raise any more tariffs. As of now, not confirmed by Trump.

Keeping them in place and more interest rate hikes should be just what the doctor ordered for the crashing housing, automotive, heavy industrial, semiconductor, and energy sectors. Don't you think?

I love this game.

Tariffs aren't bad enough to crash anything that quickly. The hit to confidence is worse than the tariff impact for now.

More interest rate hikes will crash the corporate debt bubble at some point, but did you see Powell's comments on Wednesday? The market certainly did. That was some pretty dovish comments and a rather fast reversal. There's no way this doesn't give confidence to those who want to buy, which is most of the market. It's got another FOMO bubble in it.

Long term, as I've correctly said from the beginning to howls of complaint at first, Trump is very serious about bringing China to its knees over its various large scale thefts. And China is not going to give up its theft as it has serious plans to become the 21st century Asian version of 20th century Nazi Germany, and stealing Western tech and manufacturing by theft and extortion is the only way it can get there. China also wants to weaken America economically in furtherance of its aims. Trump will win that fight but it'll involve a lot of pain which will be bad for the markets until China capitulates.

But for now, we have a reprieve.

Now all of those orders in anticipation of the tariffs are no longer necessary. Asia already teetering will have another leg chopped out from under it. Europe has no shot of standing without the US and Asia.

Kiss the manufacturing bubble goodbye, the only last real bubble at the moment aside from the employment bubble, which also goes. They were the primary beneficiaries of the tariffs.

Interest rates stay up, so heavy goods and real estate keep crashing.

The credit cycle is in free fall, world wide.

The last to go are stock and real estate prices. Dallas will be annihilated again like in 2015-2016 due to oil prices, and that will sink the heartland.

The stock market is fighting the economy now.

These past two years, best what is this timeline ever. If Trump truly did blink, it was fun while it lasted. Tariffs would have made up for crashing corporate profits with higher employment income. Oh well.

Trump was serious. He no longer is if he blinked.

The Trump tariffs were the only things keeping the US economy alive. Now we get sucked down with China. They haven't turned their financial system back on yet, so their downturn should go on for another year or two.

He lost his balls.

Actually, we're going to be in trouble soon.

Nope, I agree with TS. Shorty loses and we rip going into January barring a sell the news event on Monday.

All the economic indicators mean **** now, because everyone and their grandma was long ES calls going into the weekend betting on the trade result, which turned out to be far more bullish than anticipated. So the mms are gonna get their face kicked in and are now forced to scramble to close out, which is probably good enough for ATH SPY by end of year.

Probably should’ve listened to my own advice about how fading Trump is always the ultimate nut low. GGs president Trump, I lose and will cover on Monday, though I refuse to surrender the TSLA and NFLX short.

Ack,
Can you give more detail on your second to last post? What exactly is giving you the idea that it's your view that's happening and not simply a bit of tariff fear/a small pullback after a huge bull run/adjusting to higher rates.

As for your graph, looks it's like 1998 or late 2005 more than late 2000 or late 2007. I say your own graph is evidence against your thesis.

The other point is that rates were also much higher at those last crash dates. 2007 had rates at 5% and a fed happily hiking them. G7 rates were 4%. That's a world apart from 2% and 0% in terms of potential affect on yield and desirability as an alternative to risk assets.

So I don't see you demonstrating what you're claiming as yet.

I doubt the S&P will ever be at or below 1900 again.

A crash is the end of mania. We were and may still be in a maybe 10+ sigma bubble.

A peak in the credit cycle has a knack for popping bubbles, and it's definitely having an effect on the economy, but inflation isn't even falling, so they have to stay up. More car, heavy industry, and housing workers get laid off. Housing prices have already leveled off and will follow now crashing new home sales which really only doesn't happen except in recession or a housing bubble, which we are not in. The energy sector tanks. And without future tariff protection, manufacturing growth halts. Employment for all of the above dips just like the last oil crash. The consumer pulls back, and may already be pulling back discretionary spending. This is many economic issues wrapped into one.

Only real interest rates matter. Inflation is distortion.

Those are yield spreads, which strip out the effect of inflation and nominal levels. They also predict/cause recession. In 2000, they fell out of bed during the stock crash from the peak. This is a separate event, but the mania is hastening the onset of recession.

We'll see half the peak during the recession.

For now, that's about 1500