S&P month-end target: May 2020
05-13-2020
, 02:17 AM
05-13-2020
, 07:22 AM
05-13-2020
, 07:40 AM
Quote:
I think we are likely in a 2650ish-2950ish range for the foreseeable future but I wouldn't be greatly surprised to break that in either direction by months end. The market may not be as efficient as you think or we wouldn't see the massive volatility we have seen since this debacle started. Those downside puts are still pretty pricey and I for one would not feel comfortable shorting them. Your football analogies are ridiculous.
I think we are likely in a 2650ish-2950ish range for the foreseeable future but I wouldn't be greatly surprised to break that in either direction by months end. The market may not be as efficient as you think or we wouldn't see the massive volatility we have seen since this debacle started. Those downside puts are still pretty pricey and I for one would not feel comfortable shorting them. Your football analogies are ridiculous.
In the spirit of the thread I will predict the S&P closes at 2868.75 on June 19th. I didn't even have to do any heavy duty research to arrive at this number!
05-13-2020
, 09:28 AM
Quote:
You've talked a lot and said absolutely nothing-- what could the action item from this word salad possibly be? These prognostication threads produce a lot of low quality responses and this is a prime example.
In the spirit of the thread I will predict the S&P closes at 2868.75 on June 19th. I didn't even have to do any heavy duty research to arrive at this number!
In the spirit of the thread I will predict the S&P closes at 2868.75 on June 19th. I didn't even have to do any heavy duty research to arrive at this number!
05-13-2020
, 10:10 PM
05-29-2020
, 04:10 PM
05-29-2020
, 04:20 PM
Looks like the wisdom of crowds failed here as the forum was too bearish. Could be we are too small a sample or this crowd aint all that wise 
05-29-2020
, 04:29 PM
05-29-2020
, 04:35 PM
Or it's not something wisdom can be applied to. 21 days out in a market this volatile driven by news and hope is a pure crapshoot. I said as much when I picked 2600, there's so much noise here. Was "200 points higher" the wiser choice? I'm not sure. Generally I think status quo (2800-2900) is the wisest choice, the market goes sideways a lot more than majorly up or down.
05-29-2020
, 04:37 PM
https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...o-probability/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morgan Housel
The idea that something can be likely and not happen, or unlikely and still happen, is one of the world’s most important tricks.
But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else.
It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it.
Most people get that certainties are rare, and the best you can do is make decisions where the odds are in your favor. They understand you can be smart and end up wrong, or dumb and end up right, because that’s how luck and risk work.
But almost no one actually uses probability in the real world, especially when judging others’ success.
Most of what people care about is, “Were you right or wrong?”
Probability is about nuance and gradation. But in the real world people pay attention to black and white...
It happens during pandemics. A headline might say, “Experts predict 200,000 deaths by August.” What it should say is, “Experts have 95% confidence that the number of deaths by August will be between 110,000 and 290,000,” or something like that. But if the number of deaths by August turns out to be, say, 120,000, people will declare the experts wrong. If the number turns out to be 350,000 they will be called disastrously wrong – even though the forecasters knew there was a one-in-twenty chance of that occurring.
It happens in investing. Predictions that come true bring invitations to be on CNBC. Predictions that don’t bring client redemptions. Black and white.
We can’t just say this happens because people are dumb or lazy. Probability gets ignored for three reasons.
1. People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty...
2. It takes too long for a sufficient sample size to play out. So everyone is left guessing...
3. Distinguishing between unfortunate odds and recklessness is hard when risk has painful consequences. It’s easier to see black-and-white even when the odds are apparent...
But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else.
It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it.
Most people get that certainties are rare, and the best you can do is make decisions where the odds are in your favor. They understand you can be smart and end up wrong, or dumb and end up right, because that’s how luck and risk work.
But almost no one actually uses probability in the real world, especially when judging others’ success.
Most of what people care about is, “Were you right or wrong?”
Probability is about nuance and gradation. But in the real world people pay attention to black and white...
It happens during pandemics. A headline might say, “Experts predict 200,000 deaths by August.” What it should say is, “Experts have 95% confidence that the number of deaths by August will be between 110,000 and 290,000,” or something like that. But if the number of deaths by August turns out to be, say, 120,000, people will declare the experts wrong. If the number turns out to be 350,000 they will be called disastrously wrong – even though the forecasters knew there was a one-in-twenty chance of that occurring.
It happens in investing. Predictions that come true bring invitations to be on CNBC. Predictions that don’t bring client redemptions. Black and white.
We can’t just say this happens because people are dumb or lazy. Probability gets ignored for three reasons.
1. People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty...
2. It takes too long for a sufficient sample size to play out. So everyone is left guessing...
3. Distinguishing between unfortunate odds and recklessness is hard when risk has painful consequences. It’s easier to see black-and-white even when the odds are apparent...
05-29-2020
, 04:44 PM
05-29-2020
, 10:09 PM
For full disclosure this is my creation, but I think it's an effective way of breaking out YTD returns by sector. Most firms still in negative territory but the heavy hitters are up a lot. Interactive version is at https://www.chartfleau.com/sp500