3000-3100. I think the S&P is capped at 3100 in June, but positive sentiment will keep it close to this cap. I don't see what's going deter the sentiment unless we lack of improvement in employment data or resurgence in China's tensions, but IMO that doesn't happen/matter for at least a month.
For this reason, I'm no longer long the market (I have some residual option positions expiring next Friday, effectively making me short straddles)
Details from what what I wrote last week. Additions in bold:
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
I'm bullish until stimulus or ~3075 (9% off ATH) on the S&P, whichever comes first.
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To reiterate, on bullish side you have upcoming stimulus and more vaccine news. Even if MRNA's vaccine fails later phases, you have 9 other vaccines in clinical trials and 100+ in pre-clinical trials more vaccines in the pipeline (MRK, JNJ, Oxford, Sanofi). Regardless you believe whether we'll have a vaccine by EOY or not, the market will react quite exuberantly to any early-stage good vaccines news or new vaccines entering clinical trials. On the bearish side you have tension with China and unemployment. After press conference on 5/29, I'm less worried about tensions with China. Trump said nothing substantial here, other than he's cutting off ties with the WHO, which is not news. I read articles that China might retaliate, but why? Because we called them names? I'm also not worried about unemployment until I see lack of improvement starting with June's data (released in July). , which will reflect reopening impact and PPP's loan forgiveness terms expire. And FWIW, the market rally has always front-runned the peak in unemployment as I've showed here:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...&postcount=255