S&P month-end target: June 2020 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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S&P month-end target: June 2020

View Poll Results: S&P month-end level: June 2020

>=3200

4 9.52%

3100-3199

3 7.14%

3000-3099

8 19.05%

2900-2999

9 21.43%

2800-2899

4 9.52%

2700-2799

8 19.05%

2500-2699

2 4.76%

2250-2499

2 4.76%

2000-2249

1 2.38%

<2000

1 2.38%

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05-22-2020 , 11:05 PM

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Poll closes 6/1. No shame in waiting as long as possible before voting

Poll is not anonymous.

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05-22-2020 , 11:09 PM

Wittgenheiny

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 776

June 30?

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05-22-2020 , 11:13 PM

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Yes

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05-22-2020 , 11:23 PM

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

why does it stop at 2000?

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05-23-2020 , 02:51 AM

OhManWhatNext

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 57

3200 solidifying my place as a dumb retail bull haha. I think more stimi is coming and I think that the massive amount of new retail traders will take the market a lot higher than people expect before stuff starts to fall apart.

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05-26-2020 , 01:23 PM

JoeC2012

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

The models that my data scientists are giving me indicate a close of 3007.50 on Friday, June 19. I'd rather not reveal our projection for the end of the month of June, that's proprietary.

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05-26-2020 , 02:22 PM

BigBabyBoy

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 40

S&P 2850

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05-27-2020 , 03:00 AM

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

3350

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05-29-2020 , 10:04 AM

mrbaseball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 13,093

Hmmm? Skew is way less bearish, must mean we are doing down

I chose 3100-3199 as I am sticking with my grind up thesis. Would really want 3050 to 3150 but its just a guess.

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05-30-2020 , 02:13 AM

#10

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

3000-3100. I think the S&P is capped at 3100 in June, but positive sentiment will keep it close to this cap. I don't see what's going deter the sentiment unless we lack of improvement in employment data or resurgence in China's tensions, but IMO that doesn't happen/matter for at least a month.

For this reason, I'm no longer long the market (I have some residual option positions expiring next Friday, effectively making me short straddles)

Details from what what I wrote last week. Additions in bold:

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

I'm bullish until stimulus or ~3075 (9% off ATH) on the S&P, whichever comes first.
...
To reiterate, on bullish side you have upcoming stimulus and more vaccine news. Even if MRNA's vaccine fails later phases, you have 9 other vaccines in clinical trials and 100+ in pre-clinical trials more vaccines in the pipeline (MRK, JNJ, Oxford, Sanofi). Regardless you believe whether we'll have a vaccine by EOY or not, the market will react quite exuberantly to any early-stage good vaccines news or new vaccines entering clinical trials. On the bearish side you have tension with China and unemployment. After press conference on 5/29, I'm less worried about tensions with China. Trump said nothing substantial here, other than he's cutting off ties with the WHO, which is not news. I read articles that China might retaliate, but why? Because we called them names? I'm also not worried about unemployment until I see lack of improvement starting with June's data (released in July). , which will reflect reopening impact and PPP's loan forgiveness terms expire. And FWIW, the market rally has always front-runned the peak in unemployment as I've showed here:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...&postcount=255

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07-02-2020 , 09:24 AM

#11

mrbaseball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 13,093

I guess we aren't doing this anymore? Once again the wisdom of the crowd fails as the consensus was once again too bearish. I think the grind up continues. I thought we might have tested that 2850-2900 range but the couple of aggressive dips we had got even more aggressively rebought as expected.

I still think grind up with pullbacks no lower than 2950ish. I doubt we take out highs with a ceiling around 3250ish but who the hell really knows? Nobody here

If we take out the highs I think everyone will be confused.

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07-02-2020 , 09:35 AM

#12

Zenzor

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrbaseball

I guess we aren't doing this anymore? Once again the wisdom of the crowd fails as the consensus was once again too bearish. I think the grind up continues. I thought we might have tested that 2850-2900 range but the couple of aggressive dips we had got even more aggressively rebought as expected.

I still think grind up with pullbacks no lower than 2950ish. I doubt we take out highs with a ceiling around 3250ish but who the hell really knows? Nobody here

If we take out the highs I think everyone will be confused.

I'd like to keep this going. Maybe the poll is better on a longer timeframe though

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07-02-2020 , 01:32 PM

#13

thethrill009

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 830

Make a new poll already

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07-02-2020 , 06:34 PM

#14

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

S&P closed at 3100 on 6/30.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethrill009

Make a new poll already

I give you all the rights.

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