Quote:
Originally Posted by Wyman
Aces: glad to see the thread getting bumped.
1. How are you thinking about the next, say, 18 months vis a vis flips? Seems to me like there’s a lot of macro risk that the housing market takes a dive in the near to medium term. I’m in LV for context.
2. Have you done any NPN investing? Has that market become as competitive as the flip market? Are banks still bundling and selling these? Depending on the next stimulus I think we’re likely to see a lot of movement in the CRE and residential market but curious your thoughts.
3. I guess same as 1 but for npn’s.
4. Any other areas (particularly in RE but.. whatever) you think are worth thinking thru over next 12-18mo for someone w strong business sense and background, some dry powder, reasonable ability to raise, a decent stable of contractors, and 60ish hours a week worth of available time btwn me and an extremely talented (design and DIY), hard-working, and intuitive spouse?
1. We're seeing a tremendously inefficient market right now -- buyers are out in droves, but sellers are still uneasy about listing their houses during the virus outbreak. So, we have high demand with low supply, pushing values up in many markets.
I think that for as long as the government keeps printing $$$ and people are concerned about the virus, we're going to see the real estate market propped up in most place. Once the $$$ dry up or supply returns (when people are less concerned about getting sick), we're going to see a softening in the market. I don't like to make predictions, but if I had to make a complete guess, I'd say it happens in Q4 or Q1 of next year.
We're also see trends of people moving from big cities to more suburban and royal areas. This is partly due to covid outbreaks in big cities, partly due to people realizing they want more space, and partly due to changing corporate economics allowing people to work remotely. Long story short, I wouldn't want to own real estate in places like New York or San Francisco right now; but I think places like Florida, Las Vegas and Texas will get a bump (or at least not experience as big of a downturn) thanks to this trend.
I actually think we're going to see a decent sized recession once things get back to normal.
As for my real estate strategy, while I'm still buying flips, I'm prepared to stop and sell off my inventory at the first sign of a softening. We're not doing any long-term flips (keeping everything to 3 months or less) and staying around the median price points and in good school districts. These things will insulate us a bit if/when the market turns.
We're still buying rentals, but being conservative in our underwriting (assuming higher vacancy and lower market rents in the near future). And we just put 152 unit apartment complex under contract in Houston that we're going to be syndicating.
2. We do buy some performing and non-performing notes, but prices have been astronomical the past 12 months or so. If/when the market turns, we're hoping to pick up some good note deals. Until then, we're mostly staying away.
3. See above.
4. I'm a big fan of businesses right now (we've started one and bought one in the past 6 months). In fact, here's something I posted on Facebook a little bit ago...
LISTEN UP, ENTREPRENEURS!!!
What 2008-2011 was for real estate investors, 2020-2023 will be for business entrepreneurs.
How many current real estate investors are kicking themselves because they didn’t take advantage of the collapse of the real estate market after the great recession?
How many people look back and think to themselves, “If I had to do it all again, I’d have made millions in real estate while everyone else was too scared to come off the sidelines.”
Well, over the next few months and years, there are going to be millions of small businesses closing shop for good. Many won’t come back after the current health crisis and lock-down. Others will try to recover, but will never gain their traction back. And hundreds of thousands of business owners will likely decide that now is a great time to retire and sell off their company.
All of this is going to leave a huge void in supply for many, many industries, and an opportunity for entrepreneurs who are looking to build or buy a small business.
So, FOR ANYONE LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITY over the next few years, my suggestion is to start getting familiar with how small businesses are run, how to buy them, how to manage them, how to grow them, how to market them, etc. And then start putting together your plan.
My bet is that the next 12 months will provide business opportunity like we’ve never seen before, and that we’ll look back in 10 years and say that the 2020s was the best time to have started/bought/grown a small business in the history of this country.