https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n?srnd=premium

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mhY9

if you go on like this you will predict 10 of the next 3 recessions...

doubt it matters. 10 yr yield is that low because everywhere else (europe/Japan) is yielding next to nothing. also emerging markets are seeing capital flight, tax cuts, tarrifs etc etc all making US bonds pretty attractive place to be. money flows into us bonds, depressing the yield below what it would normally be

No, it doesn't matter. This is a spread. Nominal levels are irrelevant.

Make that within 1.75 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=miKO

This is what equity investors can expect once the real fun begins.

That's the stock market.

The yield curve has 100% accuracy so long as government isn't distorting the Treasury market which it is not unless one believes QT is making the situation look better than it is.

Recession is going to be so great. It's like sitting at a table full of fish, and my cards always hold up.

yeah... no distortion of markets that i can see...



will you open one of these threads every week now?

Correct. The Fed has not distorted markets one iota except commercial banks substituting mortgages and Treasuries for excess reserves. Other central banks are irrelevant. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=miNE

Inflation never came, and a few tens of billions per month in trading is nothing.

These should do for now.

This post will be with us for about 1.75 years until the fun begins unless the rest of the curve starts to invert.

2-10 was 14bp last I saw. This is getting good.

I was talking spread. short bonds are dictated by interest rate they cant move much by other factors. so investors flocking to longer US bonds decreases yield on those bonds but also decreases the spread.

It can't be spread. That's been ranged for forever and in all monetary circumstances. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=miUd

European and Japanese yields have been moving steadily lower for decades. Their populations are aging and declining, so yields go down. They're like Jack's pandas. They won't **** to save their species.

The US will follow Europe. I can't wait for Kyle Bass's Japan predictions to finally come to pass. Just how much national debt to GDP is fatal? Hopefully we'll find out this next recession. Once Japan shows us, I can more accurately time when I should jump ship from the US.

I know this isn't the religious forum but I will praise God when the crash happens. Not at all worried about it. You shouldn't either.

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If it matters at all, people at finance Canada and the IMF are being tasked to prep for recession back half of 2020.

if I foresee a recession, but want to invest in an RRSP (canadian 401k equiv) for tax purposes, can i use rrsp to invest in bonds or something more stable?

What would be a minimal effort way to prepare an IRA/401k for a large recession.

Requires only a minimal effort response for a minimal effort question

Yes, bonds, ETFs, and mutual funds are just fine. The fundamental difference in terms of what you can own or not in your registered accounts shakes down to:

1) Both TFSA and RRSP have a lot of "no's" when it comes to smaller exchanges like pink slips and such. Avoid or you get raped.

2) Don't put American dividend payers in a TFSA. Put'm in an RRSP.

3) Be sure you understand the difference in tax benefits between RRSP and TFSA. TFSA you'll NEVER pay tax on the money. RRSP you are getting the tax benefit today (in the form of your return). But when you go pull that money out when you're older, you're going to pay tax on it. The hope/expectation is you'll be pulling out less of it when you're older, thus being taxed at a lower bracket.

Thanks rafiki. Maxed out TFSA already. Never done RRSP because don't believe in them, but this year it makes sense.

Cash, treasuries, maybe a pinch of gold

For people with big income forever (like a big pension + rental income + CPP) they don't do much. When you cash'm out later you're gonna get taxed to the max on them. Like you said, the only benefit is the one you'll get today.