Quote:
Originally Posted by darthtrader3.5
Thats just enough knowledge for a newb to understand why options are a fools game.
And furthermore, why investing strategies based on anything found in a readily available books are, once the risk is calculated and weighted against the probability of success/winning, a fools game. The better non-options focused investment books should also give noobs this message after they are thoroughly read.
Investment and markets are about privately held information. Information is what determines the probability of risk vs reward. Just like in poker. The more people that hold the information, the more the market works to eliminate any probability of those people winning over their competition. Therefore, widely employed market strategies using widely held information, such as that which is found in books and the news, is almost certain to have you playing a game in which your probability of losing is much greater than your probability of winning.
The attraction of options is that this probability, for the most part, can be quantified. This makes your betting/investment decisions more precise in regard to risk. With most investment vehicles, risk can not be accurately quantified. There is just too much outstanding and unknowable information that the average investor doesn't have. The information that they do have is also held by much larger players, which have already worked to eliminate any edge that that information created. Therefore, for most investments and for most people, a game is being played in which the chances of losing money far outweigh the chances of making money. Luck occurs, but over longer stretches of time, probability prevails.
If you are smart and motivated enough, then go into business instead. You have much more control over and knowledge of your investment. Also, you have a much better likelihood of outstanding returns, especially over long periods of time.