need recommendations for a good macro book going into detail over the interconnections between fed rates, the dollar, commodities, currencies etc.
something on a intermediate to expert level would be preferred. something like one of Soros books although I heard his last one wasnt that great.
I think now more then ever, understanding these relationships deeply is important to running a portfolio.
thanks!

Does anyone have a good retirement book recommendation? One with standard, simple, unambiguous, practical advice meant for a layperson. I'm considering "How to Make Your Money Last" by Jane B. Quinn. The gift would be for somebody a few years away from retiring though and that book might be meant more for people who have already gotten to retirement in good shape.

I would highly recommend Lifecycle Investing by Ayres and Nalebuff, from what I've read so far. If somebody needed personal finance advice, first I'd advise them to read some basic book (not sure which), then Random Walk, then Lifecycle Investing. It's essentially a massive paradigm shift in investment allocation strategy that makes perfect logical sense and is thoroughly tested with historical data.

The key point is that you should be spreading your stock market risk exposure out better across time. With standard investing, you have a massive amount of your total lifetime savings invested in only the 10-20 years prior to retirement. Instead, the argument goes, you should use leverage earlier in life so that you're spreading the risk out over 44 years (the length of the buckets they used). So if standard advice and "lifecycle" funds do something like 90% equities in the beginning, ramping down to 50% at retirement (90/50), and a fixed strategy would be say 75/75 (always 75% equities), this advice is closer to something like 200/83 (start off leveraged 2x, retire at 83% equities).

They calculated 96 buckets of 44 years each using historical data going back 140 years, and 200/83 beats the others 100% of the time. (The numbers I'm using make this seem obvious because it's more equity exposure, but there's calculations done with the risk remaining the same as well and still coming out ahead). Even the worst case scenario beats the other worst case scenarios. It's less risk (if you want it to be), not more.

Practically though, I don't know. I'm not even sure if I'll do it to a full 200%, just because of logistics. Definitely worth a read though.

Another key point btw regards Social Security. You should be considering it part of your retirement "bonds" (obviously adjust if laws and benefits change), and if you're upset that you're not allowed to invest it how you want to, just increase your equity percentage and you're essentially doing so.

Some more on the post above.

There are some further calculations done where your final % in equities would be even less than a standard plan, but you come out ahead anyway because you invested more in equities when you were younger. Lower risk.

Such an important point is the thing about investing your "Social Security" effectively however you want to. Same with say an inheritance you know is coming but the person just has it in a CD or something. You can effectively invest that now.

No one understands this better than Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the most successful hedge fund of all time.

Read through this:

http://www.economicprinciples.org/wp...everagings.pdf

I wanted to start with value/long term investing and have read classics like Intelligent Inv, Random walk down the wall street etc. That kind of gave me basics for a strategy and then I tried to read Damodoran's "Little book of valuation" but I feel I am missing a lot of knowledge about economics and just regular terms being used since I havent been ever in any kind of economisc school.
What would you reccomend to read/learn that would help me understand more clearly books that are bit expert level in valuation like Damodorans?

I'm only vaguely familiar with damodoran (I think he's a professor who posts regularly on valuewalk.com).

For a basic primer on economics, I would recommend: Economics in one lesson by Henry Hazlitt (very short read), and Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell.

For any terms you don't understand, just look them up on investopedia. Damodoran is also very active on youtube, I'm sure he has introductory videos as well.

I haven't read it yet, but based on lectures that I've seen I have to imagine Peter Thiel's "Zero to One" would be a good start.

I will also mention that the "E-myth Revisited" by Michael Gerber is the best book I've read on entrepreneurship.

This is something I've been thinking about for a while: how do you expose yourself to random information without getting sucked into the vortex of clickbait?

Websites are addictive and will get more addictive as time goes on, this applies to basicly anything that is under commercial/financial pressures (eg facebook, newspapers, magazines, blogs, anything that has to pay large hosting costs, ...).

I guess you can just do whatever and not click the clickbait, relying on willpower, but that's a bad plan (because relying on willpower in general doesn't work for me, i gotta use willpower to design systems that take away the need for willpower. and because they'll keep getting better at capturing your attention)

One solution I use is reading on paper, reading books etc, but there's a time delay there (not too mention that some subjects just don't lend themselves to books)

Basicly, I essentially stumbled on online poker back in 2006 due to random browsing. I knew about bitcoin at 6$ due to random browsing (didn't do anything with it, but that's a different point). But random browsing nowadays leads you to websites that are engineered to capture your attention and attract it towards trash you don't want to be reading. This will only get worse. How do you avoid this while still exposing yourself to new information (eg whatever the 2017 'online poker in 2006' is)?

Finishing up Get Rich With Dividends by Lichtenfeld. I recommend it to any investing background. He classifies different dividend paying companies into his own categories and lays out a lot of math for different scenarios.

Interesting question Kaby

You want to maximize the input of good quality information while not falling for the addictive nature of low quality info. I have been thinking a lot as well about how can I can get a better "information flow". Basiccaly my endgoal is to set myself up so that I can benefit from future positive black swan events. (And invest earlier in next cryptobubble ). World is changing fast so should be tons of new opportunities in the future. (And there are tons of opportunities atm that we dont know about now. ). I cant help you with avoiding clickbait vortex cuz im a total fish (21 tabs open atm). Years of internet overconsumption has fcked up my dopamine receptors to the point that my brains is craving new information every ten seconds. Its really bad because it makes you forget the good stuff faster as well. This is going to be a big problem for many kids growing up atm imo. Dunno if it can be unlearnt, I probably should just drastically cut time spent on internet and only use it with a specific goal in mind. (way easier said than done)

Anyway you talk about Internet and books, I think Internet is more current event and news, books is more foundational.

When you read good books you can get a better understanding of how the world works, a toolbox of mental models, understanding of concepts and ideas, the history of things etc. This will help you understand new ideas better and put things into perspective. So just keep reading books that you like and those that are recommended by smart people.

For internet, maybe start with doing less random browsing?
I started using this tool https://booky.io/ to make a structered homepage with links.
Start searching for good blogs, print them once a week/month and read them on paper.
Find some good podcast shows and put them on your phone once a month, listen when u have time.
For articles maybe a few news sites that you scan once a day for X minutes, follow smart people on medium and spent X minutes a week there. Make notes about what you learned.
Twitter has incredibly value but its hidden in a sea of noise. Hard to capture all the value while avoiding the noise. You could start by following just 10-20 of the top contrubitors like @naval and check every now and then what they are talking about.

Overall maybe make a structured plan about how you are going to use the Internet like im gonna do this everyday for so long, then this once a week, this stuff once a month etc. Makes notes and think about what you are reading and what the consequence for you and the world is,

Im also thinking about the idea of creating a group of people, each aggressivly scan a portion of the Internet, and create some shared google doc or come together once a month or smth where we can discuss the most interesting articles/ideas. Together and systematic beats alone and random imo.

I havent tried any but there are also some paid services out there like https://www.farnamstreetblog.com that offer a weekly "best articles of the internet" + a community of people wanting to learn.

btw what are youre systems to not have to use willpower?

will be following. I would be interested in a group like that, thanks for the booky link, going to check that out

I keep a google spreadsheet of blogs that I find worthwhile. They are separated into different categories (investing, politics, miscellaneous etc). Your time is valuable and you can't really spend it mindlessly wandering the cesspool that is the internet, you have to know where to find good information, because 99% of content is utter crap.

These are the investing blogs that I follow

valuewalk.com
http://brontecapital.blogspot.ca/
http://contrarianedge.com/
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.ca/
http://alephblog.com/
https://greenbackd.com/
http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/
https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/ideas
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/articles
https://longtermvalue.wordpress.com/
http://www.fool.ca/
http://jayantbhandari.com/
http://www.oddballstocks.com/
https://microcapclub.com/

You mentioned that books are on a time delay, which is mostly true - however, if you want to learn about a particular subject, there's really no alternative to reading books. Online articles and podcasts will only take you so far.

thx sosa

care to post/pm the rest of the blogs you follow?

how do you go about finding new blogs?

Most of the other blogs I follow are related to anarcho capitalism/libertarianism, they won't be interesting unless you subscribe to that ideology.

If a blog is really good, it will get mentioned frequently by intelligent people.

You mentioned earlier that you're worried about being sucked into clickbait articles - Once you have a decent understanding of a subject, clickbait articles will become incredible tedious and boring to read and you will spot them easily.

Since this is also a book thread, I'll post the books I've read so far this year. Maybe other posters can do the same? Not every book is directly related to business and investing, but it's still interesting to find out what other people are reading.

Books Finished in 2017.............................................. Author

Tranformation of the American Economy (1865-1915)...Robert Higgs
Depression, War, and Cold War...............................Robert Higgs
Sam Walton: Made in America................................Sam Walton
More Desired than our owne Salvation - The Roots of Christian Zionism..Robert O. Smith
The Law............................................... .............Frederic Bastiat
The Holocaust Industry........................................No rman Finkelstein
Albion's Seed: 4 British Folkways in America...........David Hacket Fischer
Image and Reality of the Israel-Palestine Conflict...Norman Finkelstein
Invention of the Land of Israel...........................Shlomo Sand
War in Human Civilization.................................Azar Gat
Cable Cowboy: John Malone and the Rise of the Modern Cable Business...Mark Robichaux
The Tragedy of the Euro...................................Phillip Bagus
Franchise Your Business..................................Mark Siebert
Grinding it Out: The making of McDonald's.........Ray Kroc

Read about ~1 book a month. Like a lot of the investing / policy / memoir type of books.

Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises - Timothy F. Geithner
Recommend. Rather technical with all TARP etc. programmes but really good memoir from one of the prime insiders in both the period leading up to the crisis and the post-crisis response.
Outliers: The Story of Success - Malcolm Gladwell
First Gladwell book for me. How achieving success is also about luck and being at the right time at the right place to take advantage of the opportunities presented to you.
Fooling Some of the People All of the Time - David Einhorn
Einhorn on his famous short. Again rather technical but really good book if you like investing and research
King of Capital: The Remarkable Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Steve Schwarzmann and Blackstone - John E. Morris
How Steve Schwarzmann left Lehman Brothers to start his own M&A Boutique (and later multi-asset fund) and turned it in 's worlds largest alternative asset manager.
Thinking Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
On how we constantly switch between two cognitive systems and how they interact and benefit from each other.

And currently reading:

The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself - Michael A. Singer

Just watched Betting on Zero on Netflix a documentary about Ackman and Herbalife. Pretty interesting. Herbalife seems like a massive scam but looking at the chart the stock is staying stubbornly high.

It was definitely skewed to the Ackman side of the argument and was funded by some hedgefund guy (not Ackman) who has been short Herbalife in the past. On a personal note I have never known anyone who sold or used Herbalife products and wouldn't have a clue how to buy this stuff if I wanted to, which I don't.

Just found this gem:

http://investorfieldguide.com/wp-con...ading-List.pdf.

Reading list by investor/VC Patrick O Shag, who reads 100 books a year and started a bookclub. The link is a pdf with his 60 favourite books He gives a short comment + passage. I love the way this is structured! He reads about a ton of subjects, and seems like a lot of very interesting (some obvious, a lot of non obvious) stuff in there. Anyone who likes reading should check this out!

Cam someone suggest a basic book on trading which introduces the concepts and complexities involved.

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"Book on trading" is rather broad but perhaps: https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Techni.../dp/0471415677

I'm just looking to get introduced to all the jargon and get a feel of what day trading is. Now can you suggest something? Have started reading reminiscences of a stock operator.

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Just watch the movie Trading Places. That has most of it covered.

I'd just pick up Day Trading for Dummies or something if you just have some passing interest. There is little to nothing of value available if you want to learn how to actually day trade.

Reminiscences is great if you keep in mind that he was good at going bust and ended up committing suicide.

But if a book that has little to no thing of value would be a waste of time imo. Would watch the movie first and then look for something to read maybe even trading for dummies. Can you suggest another book though? How is Trading and exchanges : market microstructure for practitioners by Larry Harris?

Reminiscences of a stock trader is all over the internet as though it is full of gold. That is rather a shocking fact that you have told about it. Would keep it in mind while reading.

Ty for your suggestions.

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It has a great deal to offer. You'll learn the lingo. You will also learn the word Fibonacci. That word is good for learning so you can spot charlatans.

It is a good movie, so it is a question of whether you like your desert before or after the meal.

Personally, I'd just load up on statistics books. Whatever your local college/university has as its texts (and then audit courses if you can't slog through the books on your own). That is probably not an answer that will make you happy, but if you like learning, it is good for you.

Believe it or not, I have not actually read every book in existence, so I cannot comment on Harris' book.

It is still a pretty cool book. Very fun to read. Like reading a Spider-Man comic. He did only go bust twice and commit suicide once, so there is that. Probably still not a good idea to try to emulate him.

I read it probably 20 years ago, so my memory of it is a little dim, but I agree it was fun and interesting to read. I'm surprised it is "all over the internet" as being something to learn from? Are people going to their brokerage houses and reading the tape these days?
He certainly had a gamblers mindset.

Start with "Richest Man in Babylon", avoid any Kiyosaki books. I recommend Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham.

Good suggestion, and don't forget his video: How The Economic Machine Works:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0