Quote:
Originally Posted by razrback
Thats gonna be a tough one given the complete overhaul of price correlations in the last couple years.
I found this master thesis from less than two years ago:
INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION
USING COINTEGRATION AND
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY
by Jose Balarezo
"This research investigates the benefits of international diversification from the point of view of
an American investor and finds that superior risk adjusted portfolios can be constructed by
combining cointegration techniques with Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) as compared to
portfolios created solely by using MPT techniques. 39 pairs of portfolios are tested, and in 36
cases, the combination of cointegration and MPT outperforms the optimization techniques
based solely in MPT.
We argue that investors looking to diversify internationally need to be very selective in
reference to which countries they invest into since international diversification will benefit the
investor only in the cases that the home country does not cointegrate with the foreign market.
In the cases where the countries cointegrate, the benefits of international diversification will be
diminished. In this respect, before portfolios could be optimized, our findings suggest that a
necessary step is to perform cointegration analysis in order to include in the optimization
process only countries that do not share common long term equilibrium relationships.
Following this line of thought, our research performs bivariate and multivariate cointegration
analysis between The U.S. as home country, and 15 foreign markets. 4 countries are found to
cointegrate with The States, and therefore should be avoided by American investors.
These countries are: England, France, Sweden and Japan.
On the other side, for 11 other countries we do not find evidence of cointegration with The U.S.
, implying that they offer good diversification benefits for American investors.
These countries are:
Brazil, Russia, India, China, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, Germany, Spain and Australia."