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Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Yes. As n, the number of trades tends to infinity, and the only stopping condition is going bust, then you go bust with 100% probability. Everything happens in the long run. Even losing 1000000 trades that have 99.99% of winning.
You're tripling down even after I tell you you're wrong and then explain why. Amazing. Just amazing.
Your statement above is false. Here is an academic paper for you.
Ruin Probability In Infinite Time
You could look at the equations and realize that an infinite sum of non-zero anything does not go to 100% if the values decrease faster than the trials add up. I'm not sure on your familiarity with math, but this is failry basic limit theory. For example, read this
high school primer. An infinite series can converge or diverge; you'll find that positive expectation with low SD will converge to a number rather than diverge to infinity.
But there's not even any need for that. I'll make it really simple. This paper above called "Probability in Infinite Time" would be unnecessary if ruin was certain in infinite time. The paper would say "100%".
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Near zero risk is not the same as zero risk.
It's also not 100%, which i s your claim.
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Speaking of obvious, that's what jb said in regards to my post.
If jb wants to join you in being wrong, that's his prerogative.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 08-30-2017 at 04:07 PM.