Buy EUR/USD 0.2 lots @ 1.1801

Closed @ 1.1814 for +$26.60
Fee ($1.42)
Balance $816.65

maybe this guy...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbD...eyLos76qk_dfZw

It would be oddly strange for him to have a 6+ monitor setup for trading and no sale product whatsoever. I'm not into scams 101*, but when people like this guy or OP provide content without any reason, ether they are newbie beginners or lonely pros...

*or they are playing the long con. Have 1 year x number of posts/channels, whichever one succeeds take that identity and then start selling video lectures....

Question for OP, since I know very little about Forex. Can a big losing trade make your account go negative?

Youtube channels like UK spread betting as well as Day Trading Academy offer a ton of free content. UK spread Betting pretty much gives way the entire kitchen sink on each trader's strategy. It's hours upon hours of content without any sales pitch.

If they were purely scam artists this would be completely counter-intuitive as scammers spend the entire time promising hopes and dreams without delivering any tactical "how-to-actually-do-it" content.

Typically, no. Once your equity falls to or below your used margin, you receive a margin call which if you're not familiar means that you've run out of margin and your position will be liquidated at the current market price. At this point you are at or near busto. The margin call is the mechanism that keeps you from going in the negative.

Although rare, there are situations in which it can happen. When a major shakeup takes the market by surprise and it creates a huge gap, your account can go in the negative before being liquidated. This happened to some people back in 2015 when the Swiss Franc unpegged from the Euro.

Well, folks, it's not all sunshine and rainbows. If you're gonna post the good you gotta post the bad, right? Entries were just way off on these. -12% for the day... Need to focus and execute better.

Made it up today on the backs of Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi

I'm not so inclined to believe you're lying. I do however doubt you'd still be posting if your initial results weren't favorable. It's like in poker where you have people posting challenges for themselves all the time, and the only ones that keep updating their threads are the ones who ran hot. And if you're not happy with the results, all you have to do is read another article or two, tell yourself that NOW you're ready, purge the old data sets, and start fresh. Not saying you'd do it - but that's the trend I've seen over the years.

You must realize that a few hundred outcomes is meaningless. If someone posted 20,000 hands of poker they'd be laughed at by anyone who has a clue. These situations are not analogous but the tools you would use to analyze the data are the same.

Could you tell us some of the key variables we'd need to be able to figure out what a sufficient sample size would even look like? Do you know the standard deviation of the sample?

It's all dependent on the process. If we can look at lines a person is taking and learn about their strategy, 20k hands is more than enough to assess someone's ability to beat the game. Same thing in trading. Listening to someone's ideas and thought process is a good indicator of their profitability. We don't really need to see a statistically significant sample.

That said, it's fairly likely OP is just pushing buttons and running good atm.

Given that I started with only $100, then yeah if my results had not been favorable I would not still be posting. Because I would've gone bust a long time ago. I think that's fairly obvious.


For my current trading approach, I agree that a few hundred outcomes doesn't tell you much. Although if you're a position trader, a few hundred outcomes could be a lifetime's worth of trading -- so no, these things are not necessarily analogous.

I'm no expert in regards to defining competency in trading. There are plenty of others here who are more qualified to opine on the matter. But I would say that you have to exhibit that you are capable of sustaining over a broad range of market conditions. I don't think there's any optimal number of trades that defines a trader as such, only that the greater number of outcomes you have the more likely it is that you have experienced that broad range of conditions.

In poker (cash games anyway) number of hands is a perfectly fine barometer of proficiency. I suspect that in trading, the equivalent is not necessarily the case.

I think that's fair enough for the present.

At what point, be it over timespan/return%, do you start to think otherwise?

Depends? But posting results is a fruitless endeavor and pretty meaningless. Doing it because some internet troll demands it of you isn't worth it. You will run hot and you will run cold. You can trade well and lose and trade poorly and win. Not over the long term though.

What you can do in the long term is continue to improve and learn. Post about the process and the emotion. Post about what works and why and what doesn't and why. Learn from the experience, learn from the differing situations. These would be meaningful and interesting discussions. Posting results isn't interesting to anyone but you or those who want to try and tear you down.

If we had people with tons of experience who were big winners in this domain using same approach/techniques he's claiming to, yea, talking to them would probably give an idea of how realistic he's being.

If they exist then that would help but establishing their credibility introduces the exact same problem. Data is by far the easiest way to prove your edge.


If you're just looking at candlesticks or interpreting fluctuations there's no reason why you should be better/worse at cracking that code than when the macro events are different, but even if they did, we're not sampling necessarily to establish whether or not you can expect to sustain those wins year after year.

We're establishing whether the trades you made are even sufficient to estimate what your true expectation was in the time period that you were trading.

Very well said.

The OP was somewhat process-related and was immediately dismissed on the basis of "LOL FOREX" so that kind of put me off doing so. I made a couple process posts later and got minimal feedback (you and Rikers pretty much). So it seems this is destined to revolve around whether I get there or blow up.

On the contrary, it's a terrible post.
It's the only way to provide objective proof of OP's results. It used to be a requirement to keep these kinds of threads open - which generally aren't allowed.

Since we've proven above that $100 -> $1000 is meaningless in forex, with the screenshots of losing traders on large heaters on samples much larger, we know that 10x is easily obtained by losing traders on a heater, We also know that BY FAR the most likely way to get from $100 - > $1000 in say six month timeframe is by a heater. OP's $100 -> $1000 challenge is therefore meaningless.

Gee, this is the most pointless truism on this forum, ever.

Would posting about the process of picking entries and exits by reading tea leaves, be interesting? Should I start a thread on that, without results in it? What about reading lotto patterns and picking numbers based on that? Just because someone types words on why they picked something, doesn't make it meaningful. Forex, if it is beatable at all, is probably not beatable for more than 5%/month in the long run. Which means that OP's challenge is dead in the water apart from a heater, and OP's trades are nearly entirely luck.

But if you want reasoning, you know the best time to provide it? As you enter the trade and post it in real time, because otherwise you inevitably end up doing doing post-hoc reasoning or picking the good trades to show off where your thesis - perhaps by luck - worked out. So you should want real time trades also, baseball, if you and OP care about honestly learning what is winning (and losing) reasoning.

If you want to talk about strategy, do it as you enter the trade. Have your reasoning out there before it plays out. It's an invaluable record. I do it myself in a spreadsheet for every trade I make. I like to think I'm rational and fairly good at understanding my theses and how they play out, but I've had some surprises from having objective detailed data on my reasoning for every trade.

That paragraph is a good post. Way better than the utter turd that baseball posted, that massaged your ego, and so you liked it.
Thread is meaningless without results.

You've proven nothing. You found some TEs that showed solid returns over a recent sample within the context of a larger sample that is losing overall. No one starts out in Forex (or any market) with positive expectancy from the get-go. The fact that you dismiss all possible cases of this as purely luck based is laughable. I guarantee you that any current proficient retail Forex trader who makes consistent returns (as consistent as Forex allows) started as a loser and developed into a winner just like in any other market.

Consider this: Pinkman mentioned in the first few replies that this is what all Forex traders do. And he is absolutely right. They try to parlay a tiny deposit into something larger, and usually by daytrading with high leverage and aggressive risk. There are countless traders in Forex attempting to do this right now. They are trading the same pairs I am, on the same timeframes I am, under the exact same market conditions that I am. And yet they will fail, while I will not... So why is that?

OK, let's look at other side. This clown started on a massive heater, then got crushed, now down millions.



The exact opposite of the others. What will explain away this one as? Will you explain this away as him going on tilt (I'm not sure how you can even do this with forex?). I'm sure you will.

The fact is, you are so utterly deranged you will not except the ample evidence - you can look at any number of result sets - that the variance in forex is absolutely huge, and being up 1000% over a few hundreds trades is actually very normal variance.

Your irrationality is very telling. Do you believe that 100%/month or 100%/100 trades returns in forex are possible in the long run? Do you think 50%/month is possible? 30%? If you do, please say so. If you don't, you admit that the vast majority of your results are you on a heater. Which means your results are meaingless in proving your skill. Which is it? Take a pick.

What, in your mind, would be evidence that the variance in forex is extremely large, far larger than your returns so far? You hilariously explain away 600% returns in a month in a longer term pattern of 80% total loss, as the person getting better and not an example of the size of heaters. You're managing to destroy any credibility you could possibly have with statements like that.

I took the top few big winners on the leaderboard up hundreds of percent, and they were all long term losers. To me this looks like the variance in forex is huge. To you this looks like these people suddenly, miraculously improved to long term returns of 600%/month. Do you not see how utterly comical your view is?
OK, so grandiose delusions now, after what, a few hundred trades? Hilarious. The worst part about all this is that you're going to disappear when it goes belly up and your luck runs the other way.

No, I don't believe that 100% a month over the long term is feasible, not even half that. And I have already said multiple times in this thread that luck certainly plays a part in this. But it does not follow that results are meaningless because luck is involved. There's a huge amount of luck involved in winning large-field poker tournaments. Is there not luck AND skill involved? And you never addressed why it is that 90% of Forex traders do this and fail, while I haven't. There are countless retailers doing the EXACT same thing I am doing -- daytrading the EUR/USD, mostly short -- and failing massively at it. How can I be luckier than them when we are both doing the exact same thing?

I admit the variance is huge in Forex, and I also conceded in your prior post that the guys you screenshoted could certainly be on heaters. But I also think that for some of them, maybe it is too early to make that determination with any degree of certainty. Theoretically, if someone does legitimately get better it has to happen at some point in the sample does it not?

This guy is posting ~1 video per month.

Does UK spread betting show results or consistent live trading (not just a few days of out of the month)? I don't claim that Youtube channels like these are scam artists. I claim that that's there's no evidence that they're profitable.

To an extent. If someone's making trades based on astrology, then yeah. Otherwise, I disagree, as nothing is more objective than data.

When I use to play poker, there were a lot of "standard" plays I considered bad, which people only caught to later on and vice versa. Also, there were a lot of educational poker vids which "sounded good" (e.g. DeucesCracked), yet their players were losers according to tracking websites.

Tournament poker is a great example. You have what are probably a tiny number of legitimate winners in any given field (after rake and costs), and then a tons not so great players with a couple of big score who are just meh overall, but are winners over the course of a years.

Why would anyone shy away from testing the sufficiency of their results if they were actually interested in learning?

Coming up with crude estimates isn't that hard. You get the sample variance and you can construct confidence intervals. It's not perfect but it's way better than guessing.


That is true but don't you think it's likely to be gradual? In poker and trading - you never have a single epiphany that turns you from a loser to a winner. It's a gradual process of refining your thought process where you make incremental gains in your expectation for profit.

Variance is actually way lower in short term trading compared to poker. Unless you're doing stuff that's very scalable where prices tend to be more efficient, you should be making money nearly every month.

Sure. The process is indeed gradual. But my point is that it has to start at some actual point in time. Whether that turnaround is indeed a turnaround or just a heater isn't reliably known until hindsight. Given that, it's pointless to say whether it's one or the other. I never in a million years tried to suggest that these people are now capable of making 600% a month (Toothsayer apparently loves to put words in people's mouths). I merely wanted to suggest that in some cases it could be a sign of improvement, and not just "hey, check out this fish on a heater."

Placed a buy stop order above resistance on EUR/USD and woke up to see it got filled @ 1.1988.... Trailing stop was just hit at 1.2029 for +41 pips ($80 after fees). This pair just continues to climb. E/U has jumped nearly 1,200 pips since I started this in may.



Tell that to TS