Also, jesus **** this dumb. You realize most trend-following losses are going to arise from buying or selling too late in a move. IT'S LITERALLY HOW THE STRAT WORKS. By definition most of his losing trades will be bag holders.

I bet you never have any losses when you trade though.

--->--too early------>----trend following --->------>--bagholder--->

CandyKreep "admits" he was playing suboptimal trend following (getting up near "bagholder" territory due to the size of the move already) but went with it anyway.
He knows that's a bit dumb but takes it anyway because there's a trade setup and FOMO. I was advising him to be a little more selective.

I don't think him and me disagree that he took it a little late and thus it was quite a risky trade. He's saying he's happy to push the envelope and "hey, it turned out" and I'm telling him that's a loser's/gambler's way of trading and only ends one way.

You're arguing about stuff that isn't even relevant and fails to follow the conversation. Just like last time.

The great conundrum with filtering in a trend following strat is that you generally are taught to employ indicators like RSI, MACD, etc. I’ve tried this in the past with less than stellar results, which is not surprising because they’re based on past price action which results in lagging signals.

The only indicator I use now is for volume - which I admit is not perfect, because it’s forex and you cannot glean actual order flow data because it is a decentralized, OTC market. But tick volume from an ECN is worlds better than that from a dealing-desk/market maker FX broker, as the latter is more highly correlated to retail volume only, while the ECN’s volume data is closer to institutional. This is another reason why I don’t mind paying a little more in commissions. Sorry, this is a bit of a tangent but just wanted to explain my process a little.

In my experience, instead of using tick volume, it's far better to use actual volume by pulling the numbers from futures using the sixes.

I think I’ve heard a few others say the same. I should probably do a back test comparison.

If you lose this 2k you will get the urge to deposit 5k next time and go on and on until you have serious problem. If you lose this 2k you should quit! GL .

Nah, this is the last go of it. I’ve already started learning options and am finding that more interesting and have obviously been told by multiple sources that it’s way more worthy of my time than FX.

In fact, if I get down to 1K (which I’m not far from) I’ll likely just transfer the remainder to the options account. Chances are good that I’ll lose there too (it’s been a mixed bag so far) but at least I have the chance to get better in that arena.

You'll definitely lose in options unless you can override the way your mind/personality works.

But at least you have a shot and at least you can become rich by luck. Glad to hear you're putting a hard stop on what you'll lose in that pointless waste of time, forex.

One of my challenges will be figuring out how to manage positions within the context of an expiration, something I’m obviously not used to. For example, I’m currently in what’s shaping up to be my first winning options trade (on an ETF). I bought a call yesterday on EEM that’s ITM and expires next Friday. My strike price was $39.85 (marked in the pic). Still not sure what the best plan is, maybe determine a stop limit somewhere above that zone and just see what happens?

I’m not asking to be told how to trade here lol, but certainly won’t turn away opinions from those more experienced in options.

Its easy, get out before expiration.

Its kinda fishy to buy options in the the end of the week and hold through the weekend. Its better to buy in the beginning of the week and sell before the weekend (for weekly expirations).

Also, options are tricky and so is this market right now. Id smoke em while ya got em.

Yeah, thanks. I figured that part

Yeah you're a little late on the options train. Just had possibly the best month in a couple of years for options, consistently undervalued/large reliable moves that were well telegraphed.

Options are a way to leverage a robust thesis. If you don't have a robust thesis, don't play options. If you're asking what to do with your ITM, you didn't have a robust enough thesis.

Honestly, I should’ve expected that from you. So, your approach is purely fundamentals/theory driven. And if others don’t have the same approach, or trade mostly from a technical perspective, they shouldn’t be in the game?

Candy, why did you buy that option in the first place?

Would have been nice a point higher. But I just took a small short position in EEM.

It was just purely a gap-and-go kind of shot at the open yesterday morning. From looking at the daily chart, historically speaking, it seems that gaps don’t fill quite so frequently on some of the ETFs. That may very well be a -EV approach long-term, but it’s a start. I’m still very much in the figuring things out phase.

Options spreads and fees are the perfect setup to anally reeducate fish. Right now that's you. You're paying >10% per round trip in most places. That's the mother of all rakes. Looking at lines on charts isnt going to get you enough of the enormous edge needed to beat that rake. You're gonna be way short.

There's no particular reason that you need fundamentals (which includes non-lines-on-charts-derived market psychology) for options, other than the fact that fundamentals are the only spot with an edge large enough to beat the rake.

Do you care about making money, or is this some kind of gambling release for you (justified in the back of your mind by thinking it could be +EV)? Because if its the former you're ****ing up every single thing about this.

Sit, wait and watch. You don't need to make your first trade for a month, two, three. If you're jumping in the first day with real money to get your feet wet on multiple trades, you're far too much of a tool/loser/toddler who chooses the candy now rather than two later to ever be a non-losing trader.

Okay, so the thing you thought would happen, happened. You don't have any predictions about what will happen to EEM between now and expiration. So sell your position and look for other opportunities.

I’m currently on Robinhood, so just spread and no fees. I think 10% per round trip is way more than what I’m actually paying.

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, this coming from the guy who got in a 5x prop bet with a 12-month term and 83% of the way through still hasn’t made a single trade

Yep. Came to that conclusion as well and sold it a couple hours ago.

I can say with a high degree of confidence he isn't a winning trader. He likes the attention. Both him and Brian make a whole thread about a prop bet that will never get paid. Then just turn thread into a circle jerk by not even trading. There used to be active mods on this forum. Guy should be banned.

Although I enjoy his low-content posts for the lulz. Can't reveal that 30-bagger in 11 minutes because he might be giving away the secret.

I absolutely love that everyone who takes a shot at me is a loser. "By your enemies you shall be known." Spurious, mikhel, Thremp, turtletom, ASAP17, Buthrathi, ChipRick. A veritable zoo.

I wasn't even posting in there - it was people who hate me who wanted to make a big deal of me not trading so far (they couldn't take a shot anything else), then started lying to get attention for themselves.

I've traded very profitably for a long time and I give excellent advice. CandyKreep is just a loser; he lacks both the intelligence and the personality (but mostly the personality) to be profitable at trading. Guy is a compulsive gambler with no self control and the wilfulness of a dumb teenage girl. I tried, bored with it now.

I was in the spa. I have to reveal to win the bet, which I intend to do.

GL Candy, hope you get another 1000% random walk going your way and then decide to do something else with your life. You're a great guy, just not cut out for any kind of trading.

I am not directing this at anyone, but more and more I see wisdom in this:

"Don't cast your pearls before swine..."

Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast
ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them
under their feet, and turn again and rend you.
-Matthew 7:6

Lol, you're delusional. In the spa LOLOLOLOL. You've officially gone full fin twit guru. Enjoy your spa day, BABY!

Candy, I want to say congrats on the nice trade. From my understanding of the trade the EEM position should have been a nice winner.

What was the delta of the strike when you opened the position, what was it when you sold it?