Unfortunately so. I had what I thought was a great short setup and failed to account for a significant support level on the daily. Yeah, this is the part where I attribute it to shaking off the rust after an extended break (which I’m sure you find hilarious)

I also let that one run a little longer than I should’ve, which is admittedly a pretty big leak.

Do you want BFI's approval or do you want to make money?

Not that they are mutually exclusive. But you don't have to justify anything to us.

Figure it out. Fix what you are doing wrong.

I just heard someone I respect say: trading is high probability set ups, taking the low hanging fruit off the table, and reloading.

Also, I am bad at this, but like 90% of trading is patience. Must be patient.

Your advice presumes he can fix it. What if he's at the wrong table with no edge, bleeding to the rake between the wild luck swings which he delusionally explains to himself by confirmation bias cherry-picking from hundreds of rationalizations/indicators/rules? What then? The only advice is to quit in that case, and find tables where he has an edge (probably upskilling for a better job).

LOL, you legitimately made me laugh out loud. Maybe thats the case. Then fixing it is stopping. Go burn money. No literally, light a $100 on fire. I can't do it (literally, done plenty of the other).

If you aren't properly capped, then stop until you can recap. Can't recap? Take a shot. Took a shot and lost? Get a second job and recap. I mean IDK what else to say.

I will say that bleeding to the rake has never been my thing. My broker would change like a $10 ticket fee + $1 / contract over ten. I would never trade less then 10 lots then. I dont care if its a $2k acc, then its AI in one position. Better get it right. $10k account, better but still under capped. $50k now you are talking.

Just my thoughts.

Trading is a bit like God. No one is ever going to believe that they're delusional in believing that God exists when they've had a personal relationship with Him for years, and see signs everywhere. If that powerful presence is an imaginary friend and no bit of it is real, it says rather nasty things about their sanity (to them anyway, because they lack the wisdom to understand human nature).

And so it is with the trading God, setups and lines on charts. They've seen breakouts and patterns happen again and again and again, thousands of times. They've had big runs trading them. How can they not be real? They would have to admit they are insane/delusional to a comical degree to admit that the lines aren't real and just mind-fluff.

And so it goes, until you're broke and your daughter is asking why daddy can't afford her school books ($-300 and counting, CandyKreep).

I do hope you prove me wrong because you're an all-around awesome guy, but alas.

^^ Yes. Except...

God might exist. And maybe he (and / or other newbs) are learning, and not being delusional.


I will say this though, I would not tell a sole to get into poker or trading in any way other than recreationally. If you succeed as a hobby then quit your day job. But until then treat the money as any healthy person would relate to roulette money or the money they spend at the movies. That is, you should be 100% OK with losing it.

...because, punch line...you probably will.

What is it? The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

I don't buy the "I tilted/traded bad/missed this or that indicator" bull****. Your negative edge in forex is at best tiny just like your positive edge is tiny. This isn't poker where you can get raped if you play badly, where large -EV for bad decisions actually exists and is the norm.

Most of the time when you lose money at a game like leveraged forex it's not because you sucked, but because you got unlucky. When you do well it's not because you traded well, it's because you got lucky. Even if I am wrong about everything, it's a mortal lock that the large majority of the narratives that CandyKreep is telling himself are pure bull****.

This doesn't apply to more complex games but it certainly applies to forex.

There's a nugget in there somewhere if CandyKreep could be bothered fishing it out.

LOL at the downward spiral scenario. Between me and her mom this kid has absolutely everything she could want or need.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your God analogy, and I’m maybe treading into a different topic in terms of the efficacy of TA which I know has been discussed ad nauseam in this forum... but perhaps the difference is the fact that these delusional people in the trading side of the analogy are actual participants that influence outcomes (Trust me, I already understand that that argument applies less to FX than any other market). In other words, a Fibonacci level or moving average, etc, doesn’t intrinsically influence price but because traders believe it does (delusional or not) it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At any rate, Im not delusional enough to think that every twist and turn in my forex trading is influenced by my own rationale. I even full on admit this in the video I made a few pages back after I 10x’ed the first deposit. However, I think it’s overly cynical and a little silly of you to insist that it isn’t possible to make any decision whatsoever that even slightly affects the EV of a trade, especially when it’s a market that you don’t even have experience trading in.

Agreed. I think being patient enough to wait for the very best setups is the hardest part. For me anyway.

Why is it hard? The bar you have to get over is having at least the emotional intelligence of a "2 candies later" toddler. Is that really too high for you?

It's not cynical - forex is highly liquid and highly scalable with tiny spreads, so if there are even tiny edges in forex, why are there not large forex quant firms making a killing at this? All the big/outsized profitable firms are in equities. Think about it.

No one’s trying to argue that there are edges in forex commensurate with those found in equities. What I am saying is that there are price action patterns, support/resistance levels that price respects, in other words concepts that can be traded in any other market profitably that also exist in forex. The reason why there aren’t large firms doing it in forex, as you already know, is because they can do it in equities in a less risky/volatile environment where their edge is also greater.

The only reason to trade forex at all is because you’re undercapitalized for equities trading, and rather than buy a lawnmower and start mowing people’s yards as you so sagely suggested, you take a shot in the hopes that you can find some of these tradeable scenarios and make a little money while getting experience trading in the process.

But I will admit that this logic is a little flawed in the sense that you can start an account for $1-2K and actually trade options on a very small scale/frequency. This was something I didn’t think was feasible at the time of starting this thread and have since learned otherwise.

For the comment that firms aren't in this despite its vast scalability and liquidity I don't think you actually grasp what I'm saying above, and its implications. Meditate on this:
For the bolded, these patterns are also in ample supply in random walks. Some very strong patterns too and as frequently as stocks. The existence of patterns means NOTHING and says nothing about tradability.

You're providing a good example of how TA ****s up a trader's mind. You see the patterns and the patterns indicate potential profitability!

Not a big TA guy, but the presence of patterns in random walk does not preclude them from being a profitable edge in real life markets. This is a terrible argument for obvious reasons.

Of course it doesn't. Similarly (as I was arguing) the presence of patterns means nothing.

Meanwhile, in CandyLand, this is happening:



It's very expensive to try and get rich quickly....

I'm dying dude. I feel a bit ill looking at this. This is meaningful money you're losing. Sucks that your 10x random walk happened on $100 and your -60% random walk is happening on $4000. The bright side is that you're not paying much commission! Only $16. Are they hiding it in the spread now? Seems too low.

In all seriousness, you might want to consider that you don't have the temperament for frequent trading. You're doing the classic horrible risk management re-deposit compulsive gambler trading that many people do until their daughter doesn't have money for school books.

For a different take: I operate on the working assumption that I'm a worthless ******, one of the dumbest losers and worst traders alive, only capable of picking up the really easy money that's so obvious and free that even the worst losers and traders can pick it up. When you have a tendency to FOMO and tilt that's the way you have to look at this.

I don't tilt because I'm not a cuck, but there's nothing unusual about tilting, it's just applied cognitive dissonance/status threat that's actually functional but not in a financial environment. So you have to set your mind and expectations and trading up so that you never end up in tilt.

So I say put aside your ego and come up with a few simple truths:

- You are too much of a dumbass/loser to trade anything but the AA setups
- You're gonna lose if you trade any other ones. Period. You are -EV.

Get that through your head and your trading life might find a little direction.

So wtf was the point of mentioning patterns in random walks if you agree it means nothing? The only thing patterns in random walks prove, is patterns in random walks.

You're not making much sense my dawg. Probably got ten hotties in your jaccuzi right now. I can understand why your distracted.

To be honest, I don’t know what’s going on with this trade explorer. I deposited 2K, not 4 so I’m actually down 30% not 60%. Either way it’s a rough start. I took a few trades that didn’t work out. It happens. Need to focus more, but I have faith. Stay tuned

I can't for the life of me understand taking AUD.USD when it's up 1.5% already in a day. WTF dude?

I’m trading based off momentum/tick volume. When there’s a good increase in volume over multiple candles and a directional bias, I tend to get in and look for a comparatively small part of the movement.

Admittedly, today’s AUD/USD movement this morning was almost too big to work with. But, I got on and have already locked in 7%. Will more than likely manually trail my stop from here and see if I can squeeze out a little more.

The bolded is how losers and gamblers talk. This is what sane people/winning traders say:

You want to try and act like you're in the second category, or you're just wasting your time and your money as you are certain to fail.

Clearly you don't understand trend following strategies....

Clearly you don't understand filtering of trend following strategies to focus on ones that have the greatest return (hint: if you're really late into a trend, it's called "bagholding", not "trend following").

Go back and reread your cringeworthy misunderstanding of this conversation at post #393. Let me know when the penny drops.

Wut? Amazing you pass for an authority in this forum. I feel like you just fling **** and hope someone thinks it sounds smart.

You're making assumptions about how OP is trading without even knowing how he trades. You assumed that because he bought the Aussie up X amount of ticks that it was a bad trade. How should he be filtering trades? You are just saying he should be filtering them. That means nothing. Over-filtering or curve-fitting is a very real problem of trend-following strats. If anything OP is prob better off under-filtering his strat. A more important metric would be how robust his strategy is, and if he can branch it out to more markets and smooth out his returns.

You are ****ting on this guy when the only data he has shown you is that he turned a $100 dollar account into $1000. He monkey-tilted to lose it. I doubt it was his strategy that made him lose his money.

Have you ever posted anything resembling a trading history? Doubt it. I've been around trading/ performance disciplines my whole life. I can say with a high degree of certainty you have 1) never been a profitable trader, thats obvious imo and 2) you have frankly probably never done well at anything because your disposition reeks of desperation.

Best of luck to you in the future; your persona is pathetic.