People have different styles for playing NLHE from session to session too depending on the people they're playing against. People also tilt on occasion. Hands are never completely discrete/independent - as pretty much nothing in the world is, but if we want to use quantitative methods to infer anything about the world we need to make certain generalizations.

He's definitely winging it. He's probably drawing dead. But it's still interesting to frame how inconsequential the results in ways that don't equate to lolusux.

I’m sure it does. I would if I had the requisite starting capital.

I suppose I could work on saving up. Any good beginners resources you could recommend?

I literally know nothing about it other than the assumption that you’re trading contracts that give you the option to buy/sell a stock within a certain timeframe.

Well, I was fortunate enough to have a 3 pip trade take off and turn into a 30 pip trade. Ended up getting a good chunk of Friday’s fiasco back. Last few trading days have been a little wild. Hoping to get back on a steady path from here on out

Bump.

How is this going? Do you feel the time and money invested has been worthwhile, as opposed to reading literature, working on a hobby, spending time with your daughter, learning a new employable skill, getting fitter?

Sorry, I haven’t been on here in a while. This was a fun little experiment but I’ve defintely “seen the light” to some extent in regards to spot FX.

Since I started this, I got a new job in FL and sold my house in TX for a $35K profit. Obviously most of that has to go back in to a new house to avoid capital gains, but I plan on taking some of it and getting back in to trading. I’ve been demo trading ES futures the past couple weeks and doing ok at it. I know you’ve suggested to get into options but I swear I must be some kind of ****** because I’m just not really grasping them for whatever reason.

Ok. So you're going form the most liquid most watched least tradable least profitable instrument around to the second most watched least tradable least profitable instrument around. It seems you've really taken the lessons to heart.

I think spot FX is terrible for a new trader. Slipage is pretty bad and new traders, especially gamblers, will be using market orders a ton.

Futures are straight forward but dangerous. You could literally lose your house.

Options are definitely the way to go. Learn the greeks, and trade options. Really the only way to learn.

I absolutely KNEW that was coming. Glad to see you haven’t changed.

Baby steps, man. I’ll be trading nano cap stocks in no time

Also this, ES is pretty tough to trade. It really is like the most important and most traded instrument there is. I mean obviously bonds and FX, but yeah, ES is tough...

****ing trade corn futures or equity options. Thank me later.

Can you expand on this a little? Do stops get slipped frequently in futures? Thanks in advance.

Just because he pays a ton in commissions doesn't mean he doesn't have an edge or he can't beat the market he is in.

That's like saying no one can beat micro stakes poker because they pay 20 bb/100 in rake. Yet there are plenty of people crushing the micros.

Also a sample size of 300 or whatever isn't huge but you can usually look at an equity curve and get an idea of the edge someone has. Besides his tilt I would say this guy probably had some edge. Looking at equity curve without even looking at his trading style (lol I'm not reading this whole thread) I would guess he is just running some kind of trend-following strat. It's probably mostly money management and letting big winners run that is the source of his profits.

No they don't. If you go with a legit brokerage they are going to expect you to have some assets just in case though.

But the risk is still there to take a big loss. More than likely will never happen but always can. Think of crazy move in swiss few years back or blowout of spreads in VIX futures etc.

You usually can avoid because they are overcrowded markets (vix spreads) or they are markets that have been artificially constrained ( usually forex but sometimes ags etc.)

I wouldn't say a ton, I don't think it has ever happened to me. And Im not sure I would call it slippage. But the market can blow past your order. Or gap past it. Depending on your broker they may handle that differently.

IF you have a sell stop at 2800 ESX18 and the market opens at 2775 and just nose dives. Some brokers will get you out at market at the open since the market is on the wrong side of your stop, others wont.

Or what if you dont have a stop and we go limit down and your platform freezes, and you cant reach your broker on the phone bc 1M other people are calling their brokers too...

Im not trying to say never trade futures and its the end of the world. Plenty of people trade futures and sleep at night. But if you are learning, I personally wouldn't suggest it.

Its one of those low probability high risk propositions. So long as you don't sell naked options your risk profile is very different.

Spreads are as safe as just going long premium. Which is as safe as buying anything...just more leverage.

For the most part, yeah. I lucked out in that I started this challenge when the dollar was really struggling for a prolonged period. It was a lot of going long EUR/USD and short USD/JPY after pullbacks (the two pairs where execution costs are the lowest.)

I would like to think that my risk for this would be a lot less than the average ESX18 fish given that my exposure time is generally under an hour per trade, literally never holding from one session to the next, and I am only taking about 10-12 trades a month.

The ES contract currently has a notional value of over $140K. I don't know how much "some" of $35K is, but whatever it is will leave you grossly under-capitalized to trade the ES.

RE: Stops. I was going to say there are no market orders or stop market orders for ES, but apparently these have been added since I looked at them 10 years ago. https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/...es+and+Options. Still these are not true "market" orders.

Have you thought about top step trader? I used to trade full time and was able to "earn" a funded account there trying out a discretionary ES strat I had. Spent like 100 bucks to free roll there money. If you think you have an edge its pretty easy to beat their "combine".

Traded forex against advice, lost his anus and time
Can't figure out options
Yet thinks he has an edge against the average ES trader
Doesn't realize he can end up bankrupt trading ES.
Amazing stuff.

Still the same old troll LOL

I said I’ve been “demo trading and doing ok” that’s a pretty far cry from claiming to have an edge in anything.

It's not a troll you dickhead.

So you enjoy clicking buttons to lose money rather than going out, learning a new skill, spending time with your daughter, etc? Opening yourself up to bankruptcy/loss of your house on tail events? For what? There are 1000 better ways to spend your time than staring at a stock screen and drawing lines on charts.

If you're not trading for money you're an idiot, and if you're trading for money you have the worst table selection possible. WTF is wrong with you? If you're in this for potential profit you don't sit down at the worst table...you find the juicy tables where your edge might be large enough to overcome your lack of skill and knowledge, and where there's a lot more fun to be had even if you're doing this because you're a mentally ill gambler.

Trading forex and ES is the dumbest thing you could possibly do no matter what your goals are.

Perhaps the Emini Nasdaq or Dow? Or just ditch the idea of futures altogether?

A. - it’s demo trading, so you are not “clicking buttons to lose money” as there is no money involved and B. - I do this during the day at work when my daughter is at school. I’m not shunning my kid on the weekends because I’m trying to turn -EV trading arenas into profitable endeavors (Which I HAVE done in the past as evidenced by this thread, if only for a few months )

I thought you were about to start trading real money? Hence my questions are all relevant.

If not, let's rename the thread ""play-money" trading", ban OP, drop a MOAB on his house, salt the earth.

As for demo trading before real trading, all you find out is which random walk you were on. I guess your play money adventure was something like this:



Why don't you man up and stop being a coward and

a) find something you can actually have an edge in and
b) try to succeed.

This cuck-level total coward bull**** where you take the hardest/least profitable thing to trade so you have an excuse if you fail is pathetic. Find something with a good edge, try to make money at, so if you fail it actually hurts and it actually means you're a moron, rather than setting yourself up as a hero trying to do something very hard where failure is expected and it's ok to fail.

Again, WTF is wrong with you? For your daughter's sake at least try and be a man.

I love how you just craft your own narrative that has no basis in reality. I started this because I wanted to prove you could take an insignificant sum and 10X it. Which I did. The fact that it was spot FX was not chosen so that I could have an excuse when I fail, but rather because that is quite literally the only environment you can trade in with a $100 account. Whether or not it is pointless, -EV in the long term, blah, blah, is beside the fact. If that is the challenge you wish to undertake, FX is the only place to do it.

Have you heard of RobinHood?