yeah, that thread illustrates what you were saying. but note that he has to make the simplifying assumption that there is only one rate hike.
consider his example, but the interest rate goes up another 1% one year into your original 5 year (== duration) holding period.
no increase: 1000 + (.02 * 1000) * 5 = 1100
one 1% increase: 950 + (.03 * 950) * 5 = 1092.5
one 1% increase then another: 900 + (.03 * 950) + (.04 * 900) * 4 = 1072.5
you said "you will get your money back if", and i'm sensitive to claims like those. so yes, mostly correct, but not quite
.