The "I have XX money to invest, where should I put it?" Thread - Page 184

Low cost index fund only unless you want to gamble on something.

Individual stocks arguably carry uncompensated risk.

https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-f...treasury-bills

-4% of stocks are responsible for almost the entire return of the index since 1926
-the remaining 96% have returns even with treasury bills, but obviously carry more risk

https://www.jpmorgan.com/cm/BlobServ...ble=MungoBlobs
-40% of stocks from 1980-2014 had a 70% or greater drawdown without recovering

Last edited by Pinkmann; 02-20-2020 at 04:35 AM.

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03-16-2020 , 04:05 AM

#4578

Chirenz

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 11

Hey all, complete fish here ready for my first time ever trade, not sure if I'm doing it right but I'm about to open positions on
sell DISN, NKE, SIX, NCLH(??)
buy AMZN

Pretty much just picked the ones that are closing down shops... and I believe with lockdown AMZN can keep people more engaged than fb/nflx (buying just for diversity anyway, maybe better to can skip this?)
yes/no? other picks better/safer?

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03-16-2020 , 08:01 AM

#4579

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,893

surface level thoughts:

netflix revenue is capped as a subscription service that is already deeply penetrated into the market and with loads of competition that will only get stronger - barring a price hike to take advantage of increased demand, it's unlikely they'll have that more than usual high level growth

fb may have a more captive audience, but the revenue is from advertisers who probably won't be spending much these days - i'd short

amazon is a wildcard and if this is a long term thing i fail to see how they'll make deliveries when there's nothing to sell with all the factories in china shut down - i like amazon but it's far from risk proof

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03-16-2020 , 09:16 AM

#4580

Chirenz

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 11

Thanks for the input rickroll.

So I take it that longs are pretty grim at the moment and should be done only god knows how much later? What about the shorts I mentioned? Are the any better picks in your opinion?

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03-16-2020 , 10:34 AM

#4581

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,893

bear in mind i'm regularly reprimanded for my surface level thoughts, as always dive deep into the data

i'm speaking from someone in the industry on facebook though, would be shocked if came out of this with merely a fleshwound unless they dramatically shift their revenue model

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03-20-2020 , 07:29 PM

#4582

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,983

Hey all, do you think it’s a smart time to increase 401k contributions by a lot? I just switched mine from 20% to a tad over 30% just to take advantage of recent downturn.

I could increase it in less aggressive manner. Only goal for year is to get 19.5k into my account for tax benefit and to put max in going forward to help have the ability to retire younger than standard if I find it necessary as I age (currently 31). Just wanna year what people think. Think I will have to lower my % at end of year slightly to not go over 19.5k amount and lose out on employer match.

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03-20-2020 , 10:18 PM

#4583

Iwreckshop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,542

as long as you keep your job it's a great time to invest from a long term perspective

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03-21-2020 , 12:12 AM

#4584

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,983

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iwreckshop

as long as you keep your job it's a great time to invest from a long term perspective

I work in the utility industry (union job) so I would say my job is extremely safe and no worry of losing it even with a bad recession. Guess I was just asking if it’s good to load up for year now or maybe wait for end of year. With a very long time horizon, I would assume now is better than later.

It’s crazy, vanguard mutual funds I purchased 6 months ago were roughly
$95-110 and are currently in the 75-80 range.

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03-21-2020 , 06:41 AM

#4585

WittyName26

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 940

40 yr old American live poker pro. Have zero investing background, have ~100k cash sitting on the sidelines that I’d like to invest. Lurk the BFI forum trying to gain knowledge of when/where I should invest it. Any advice/constructive criticism is welcome.

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03-21-2020 , 12:03 PM

#4586

n00b590

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jkpoker10

Guess I was just asking if it’s good to load up for year now or maybe wait for end of year. With a very long time horizon, I would assume now is better than later.

Honest answer: nobody knows. We could be near the bottom, or there could still be a long ways down to go. Personally, I’m waiting at least another month before loading up.

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03-21-2020 , 12:05 PM

#4587

Iwreckshop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jkpoker10

Start dollar cost averaging in now

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03-21-2020 , 12:11 PM

#4588

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,488

Quote:

Originally Posted by WittyName26

These threads are basically people asking this question over and over, and the answer is always low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts (roth/sep ira).

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03-21-2020 , 12:57 PM

#4589

Iwreckshop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iwreckshop

Start dollar cost averaging in now

and by this I meant yes you need to increase your 401k deferrals, i'm doing the same thing and my job isn't even guaranteed at this point but I we won't see something like this again for a long time

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03-30-2020 , 04:48 AM

#4590

Guy Incognito

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,888

For those of you in cash waiting to jump back in... is there merit in waiting until next month's quarterly earnings report, or do you think that's already priced in for the most part? I have my eye on HA (low PE, HI in general doing pretty well overall with cases (zero deaths)), but am going back and forth on when I should pull the trigger.

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03-30-2020 , 07:04 AM

#4591

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guy Incognito

If stocks go down, you will be happy that you waited. If stocks go up, you will be sad that you waited.

Stocks might go down. Stocks might go up. Either things are entirely priced in or they aren't at this point, and there might be good or bad news relative to current expectations.

You might even stick to your plan and buy next month (after stocks go up or down) if you decide to wait. This is, of course, the least likely thing.

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04-03-2020 , 06:15 PM

#4592

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,338

Re AMZN, the retail business is a big money loser outside of the US and even there it's not a big earner.
Add to that increased costs and I don't see a bargain.

Quote

04-21-2020 , 06:11 AM

#4593

Mimic

banned

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinkmann

These threads are basically people asking this question over and over, and the answer is always low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts (roth/sep ira).

Hello

Im from Europe and i have been investing since 2011 , our structure is not as good as the US structure atm . (Tax/retirement etc)

What you say is true but to me the real deal is understanding how to create a portfolio and this is where most people do huge mistakes and lose a lot of money. If even using index funds you do a wrong allocation or you dont understand some fundamentals , just a 1% difference in 30 years can have a brutal effect on the income generated.

Anyone who enjoys speaking about Investments pm me.

gl

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04-22-2020 , 06:24 AM

#4594

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,338

^^ What are you selling? Be honest

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04-23-2020 , 12:17 PM

#4595

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,184

Quote:

Originally Posted by chytry

Re AMZN, the retail business is a big money loser outside of the US and even there it's not a big earner.
Add to that increased costs and I don't see a bargain.

What about the web services?

Quote

04-23-2020 , 09:48 PM

#4596

Iwreckshop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mimic

Anyone paying someone to manage their money for them gets crushed

Quote

04-24-2020 , 02:09 AM

#4597

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iwreckshop

Anyone paying someone to manage their money for them gets crushed

My friend was out walking his dog the other day and was complaining about the fact he walked past his investment advisor. Assumed the guy was meant to be at the computer managing his money. He didn't get it when I told him these people are useless.

Quote

04-25-2020 , 05:10 PM

#4598

Iwreckshop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

That's pretty funny, i'm in the "business" but think active management is a joke.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 08:27 PM

#4599

arbitrageur1

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 7

Does anyone have an idea of what it costs (as a rough %) to shift investment allocations between funds inside of a 401k or deferred comp platform? The one I'm looking at is specifically Prudential. I can look up the funds available to me (i.e. Fidelity VIP Small Cap Value) and their management fees for the class of fund I am in. But am I looking for a load fee or is there typically a fee that the DCP provider charges for taking actions?

Quote

04-27-2020 , 10:52 PM

#4600

jalexand42

Hypothetical Ubermonkey

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 5,390

Quote:

Originally Posted by arbitrageur1

Need to ask your employer / provider. Generally in my experience, there's not a fee for moving between funds in a 401k...most of the time, fees on a 401k are expenses inside the funds and potentially an assets under management related fee either charged to cover the expenses of the 401k or custodian fees.

But definitely ask and/or get a copy of all the disclosures on fees.

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