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Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
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Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
View Poll Results: Predict Inflation Rate A Year From Now
0-2 Percent (i.e. inflation remains pretty much under control)
7 9.33%
2-4 Percent (mild uptick in inflation but not yet disastrous)
34 45.33%
4-6 Percent (starting to get hot, but not yet out of control)
17 22.67%
6-8 Percent (now we've got a problem ...)
5 6.67%
8 Percent or higher (Disaster - we're screwed ...)
12 16.00%

11-11-2021 , 10:49 PM
I was one of the minority votes choosing 6-8%, looks like I am trending correctly so far.
11-12-2021 , 02:37 AM
wat can we do to stop inflation

short and for long term
11-12-2021 , 04:28 AM
I just dunno why people freak so much about inflation .
What people expect when governments borrows so much money for the pandemic ?
At some point you have to pay it back right ?

Fwiw it’s probably just the beginning imo .
What you think going to happen on the next crash ?
More QE and bailouts for the stock market …
11-12-2021 , 11:00 AM
Why? Lol

Pretty easy. Most ppl dont make a lot of money and when basic goods go up more than wages they get ****ed
11-12-2021 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the pleasure Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
wat can we do to stop inflation

short and for long term




Raise interest rates. The Feds dual mandate is price stability and full employment, they are failing at half of their mandates. They used to have 3 mandates and removed one when it became too difficult to maintain. The third mandate was to sustain a moderate rate of interest, which I take to mean an interest rate that at least matched historical inflation, so around 2%. I expect them to remove the price stability mandate and we will remain with only the full employment mandate. Everyone will be employed yay, but the wages people receive will buy them almost nothing, just like the old USSR.
11-12-2021 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iwreckshop Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Why? Lol

Pretty easy. Most ppl dont make a lot of money and when basic goods go up more than wages they get ****ed
No really ?
What did you expect ?
It is what the Americans wanted ….

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 11-12-2021 at 06:58 PM.
11-12-2021 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_C_Slater Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Everyone will be employed yay, but the wages people receive will buy them almost nothing, just like the old USSR.
Isnít it ironic ?

But I tough people are poor because they are not working really really hard right ?
Lol Ö.
11-20-2021 , 02:35 AM
Shadowstats is estimating that the true number is just shy of 15%, which I have always found to be a more realistic measure of inflation than the reported 6%+ 30-year high if you just use some common sense and think back a number of years to what things used to cost.

The 2% number thrown around for forever was a joke. If you think back 20-25 years to all of our younger years, 2% just does not check out at all assuming we are talking about staple items and not things like technology.

The EUR does seem to have things under much better control, whatever that is worth in the medium term.
11-20-2021 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by theskillzdatklls Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Shadowstats is estimating that the true number is just shy of 15%, which I have always found to be a more realistic measure of inflation than the reported 6%+ 30-year high if you just use some common sense and think back a number of years to what things used to cost.

The 2% number thrown around for forever was a joke. If you think back 20-25 years to all of our younger years, 2% just does not check out at all assuming we are talking about staple items and not things like technology.

The EUR does seem to have things under much better control, whatever that is worth in the medium term.

Nah. Shadowstats is obvious nonsense. Inflation is not some totally mysterious thing that we just have to take the governments word for. MIT/Harvard has an independent academic check that matches up very well with CPI. They've used the same methodology to catch governments like Argentina's that were systematically lying about prices in real time.

Ironically your own "common sense" advice would have prevented you from making this mistake Shadowstats is saying CPI is always understating inflation by near 4% year after year after year. That would be an additional hidden , full doubling of prices since 2000 on top of CPI which obviously just hasn't happened. Why people blindly trust shadowstasts without doing even basic back of the envelope checks is beyond me.
11-20-2021 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Eh, somewhat disagree. Housing is a good example of what can happen in the wider economy. The long run housing rate is say 1.5 million new houses per year. That's what the population needs for replacement of old houses and newcomers to keep itself in comfortable housing. An entire ecosystem of skills, suppliers, shopfronts, primary production, transport networks etc etc develops and settles over time into a fairly efficient way of getting housing.

Suddenly covid comes and the loony left are shouting "defund the police" causing rising crime and lawlessness, so millions of people flee the cities. Housing booms; instead of 1.5 million, 2 million houses are built. That extra 500K comes from somewhere: overheating. Extra energy and human effort is spent capturing all of this extra demand; entire ecosystems are built up to profit from it. At some point the demand dies, and all of that extra ecosystem has to be completely dismantled and repurposed; risk taking declines with an uncertain future, and the economy gets artificially depressed. None of it has anything to do with printing money, it's the natural wasteful friction of an overheating system.

This scenario happened in the 70s and did a lot of economic damage

...

Will it happen now? I dunno. It's hard to get an overheating economy when labor participation is as poor as it is now. If anything that's an economy in structural trouble from perverse incentives (too many unemployment benefits and eviction moratoriums for example).
Geezus, is there any thread in the BFI that TS does not Politard up in an attempt to whip up politard fights?

It is more like that as you skim a thread to catch up you find him politarding than not. Sad.
11-21-2021 , 11:02 AM
That post was six months ago. You knew that, right?
11-21-2021 , 12:39 PM
Ya i do. I was just catching up on the thread and saw that politard post and of course no one here cares. Had anyone said 'TS that is wrong and stupid to say' we all know where TS goes with that as he believes no counter should be allowed. In his mind the only offense is the counter point. And we know which direction the 'reporting' goes.

I don't want to belabour it but it is just the perfect example of what many think is normal and 'allowed' here and goes unreported and what they think is offensive and should not be posted.
11-25-2021 , 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Nah. Shadowstats is obvious nonsense. Inflation is not some totally mysterious thing that we just have to take the governments word for. MIT/Harvard has an independent academic check that matches up very well with CPI. They've used the same methodology to catch governments like Argentina's that were systematically lying about prices in real time.

Ironically your own "common sense" advice would have prevented you from making this mistake Shadowstats is saying CPI is always understating inflation by near 4% year after year after year. That would be an additional hidden , full doubling of prices since 2000 on top of CPI which obviously just hasn't happened. Why people blindly trust shadowstasts without doing even basic back of the envelope checks is beyond me.
Why is it nonsense? They literally change the basket of goods to downgrade it to fit a gov't narrative and reduce debt obligations.

I don't know all the things that have been done to CPI over the decades, but one example I'm familiar with is that in the 1980s part of the basket of goods changed an item from steak to ground beef.

I guess someone could call them arguably the same, but I wouldn't. I'd call a steak a steak and continue measuring that as a single price target entity over time. And when each directional change seems to go in this same direction, I'd call it rather strategic than coincidental/accidental.

Creating a new basket of goods to track that against itself (like ground beef) is perfectly fine to modernize lists and keep with the times. But at least compare assets to themselves.

"Blindly" trusting shadowstats isn't really what I've done. I know roughly what things used to cost me. And there's simply no way in hell that it tracks to 2% or whatever. How you've come to that logic is beyond me. But... I guess it ultimately doesn't really matter. You can either put your $ towards inflation geared investments or not, and that's really how you can try to beat me in the long term than this internet debate.
11-25-2021 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by theskillzdatklls Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Why is it nonsense? They literally change the basket of goods to downgrade it to fit a gov't narrative and reduce debt obligations.

I don't know all the things that have been done to CPI over the decades, but one example I'm familiar with is that in the 1980s part of the basket of goods changed an item from steak to ground beef.

I guess someone could call them arguably the same, but I wouldn't. I'd call a steak a steak and continue measuring that as a single price target entity over time. And when each directional change seems to go in this same direction, I'd call it rather strategic than coincidental/accidental.

Creating a new basket of goods to track that against itself (like ground beef) is perfectly fine to modernize lists and keep with the times. But at least compare assets to themselves.

"Blindly" trusting shadowstats isn't really what I've done. I know roughly what things used to cost me. And there's simply no way in hell that it tracks to 2% or whatever. How you've come to that logic is beyond me. But... I guess it ultimately doesn't really matter. You can either put your $ towards inflation geared investments or not, and that's really how you can try to beat me in the long term than this internet debate.
The problem is usually , “real sustainable inflation” is measure through the money supply and it would appear everywhere , not just some sectors .

This would mean a 15% Inflation would see money supply growing at 15% every year .
Even 10% is incredibly high .
Mathematically it just do not add up .

An inflation rates of 10% would mean every items would double every 7 years .
No way cars , houses , etc . Double in such short time frame .

2020 was 20- 25% (M2) and it was very exceptional.

Yes CPI is understated by a margin for reason you explain .
But it surely isn’t as big as shadow stats implies if they are in double digits .

The funny thing in all of this is people says technology is deflationary (rightly so) , even tho car prices stays around the same because they add up every year more technology gadgets in it to not prevent car prices to fall claiming the car is much better than the prior year .

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 11-25-2021 at 01:50 AM.
11-25-2021 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by theskillzdatklls Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
Why is it nonsense? They literally change the basket of goods to downgrade it to fit a gov't narrative and reduce debt obligations.
I thought I explained that. The values Shadowstats gives ae way wrong. The billion prices index gives a fully public method, down to raw rprice data, for calculating inflation. Over the last 13 years since it started, it is very close to CPI and massively diverges from Shadowstats. As Shadowstats doesn't even provide any methodology the obvious conclusion is that it's just nonsense by and for crazy people.

Quote:
I don't know all the things that have been done to CPI over the decades, but one example I'm familiar with is that in the 1980s part of the basket of goods changed an item from steak to ground beef.

I guess someone could call them arguably the same, but I wouldn't. I'd call a steak a steak and continue measuring that as a single price target entity over time. And when each directional change seems to go in this same direction, I'd call it rather strategic than coincidental/accidental.

Creating a new basket of goods to track that against itself (like ground beef) is perfectly fine to modernize lists and keep with the times. But at least compare assets to themselves.

"Blindly" trusting shadowstats isn't really what I've done. I know roughly what things used to cost me. And there's simply no way in hell that it tracks to 2% or whatever. How you've come to that logic is beyond me. But... I guess it ultimately doesn't really matter. You can either put your $ towards inflation geared investments or not, and that's really how you can try to beat me in the long term than this internet debate.
Funny, the hamburger/steak myth is such a widely repeated meme that it's debunked directly on the BLS website.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/c...-about-cpi.htm

Maybe if independent checks on CPI showed large divergences we could dicuss the why. Bur the former have not shown up in credible studies so it's more like discussing religion with some.

      
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