Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now - Page 4 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

I think it’s the other way around .
The feds wants inflation (destroying US debts).
The fed losing would be a deflation crisis .
If the fed wanted deflation they would just need to raise interest rates slightly to get it like in 2018

People betting on inflation are actually betting the fed we will win and get inflation , preventing the US and the world to crumble under their abysmal debts all around the world .

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06-19-2021 , 06:51 PM

#77

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Inflation is going to happen that is undisputable, due to the supply side crises.

However I dont think we ever get to hyperinflation, because the deflationary bust happens before that.

Probably.

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06-19-2021 , 07:00 PM

#78

Montrealcorp

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Why you think the supply shock will last ?
At some point those “cheap labor production of goods will be back online worldwide right ?

Imho the consumers will decide for inflation or deflation .
They pay debts and no increases in wages I don’t see how inflation can be sustainable .

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06-19-2021 , 09:00 PM

#79

Iwreckshop

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Montrealcorp

Kaf11 right ,

Banks are printing money by creating loans , not the fed .
Banks aren’t lending .

If no wages increases , how can inflation persist ?
If people with their savings spend on paying debts with their stimulus checks and not consuming , money gets destroyed .
And again , you can’t inflate easily the reserve currency if the demands of is always high .

Anyway Im not saying inflation won’t happen but there is more nuances than the fed goes brrr.

Banks aren’t lending? Huh?

The American consumer spending $ on anything other than ****? Lmfao

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06-19-2021 , 09:51 PM

#80

Montrealcorp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Iwreckshop

Banks aren’t lending? Huh?

The American consumer spending $ on anything other than ****? Lmfao

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-u-s-...jump-1.1589134

“Total loans fell by $447 billion to $5.45 trillion, Fed data show. Meanwhile, total deposits, which provide the funds that banks lend out to borrowers, jumped 16% to $10.13 trillion. Their combined loan-to-deposit ratio now sits at 53.9%, the lowest reading in 36 years of weekly Fed data”.

“ Had the largest U.S. banks maintained their lending level of this time last year, they’d have an additional $1.37 trillion of loans on their books today”.

If American were spending like crazy , total deposit would not jump of 16%

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06-20-2021 , 02:11 AM

#81

Iwreckshop

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The next day after the first stimulus hit i saw two new basketball hoops on my street

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06-20-2021 , 02:12 AM

#82

Iwreckshop

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Montrealcorp

Wonder how much of that is PPP $

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06-20-2021 , 11:41 AM

#83

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montrealcorp

The global logistics network is shot to pieces and its going to be hard as **** to unjam it.

For industry running on just on time principles and holding little to no stock required for production this is bad news.

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06-20-2021 , 10:05 PM

#84

SuperSwag

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due to covid and unemployment benefits supply chains are short staffed and can't hire new people. At same time office workers are WFH so they are just sitting at home buying buying buying so the supply chain volume has been elevated since March 2020. All the new hires at my place are terrible and usually quit in a month.

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06-20-2021 , 10:26 PM

#85

campfirewest

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperSwag

All the new hires at my place are terrible and usually quit in a month.

This sounds like a problem with your company more than anything else.

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06-21-2021 , 11:56 AM

#86

cannabusto

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SimpleRick

The fed adds money to the money supply. Money machine goes brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

That chart does not depict money printing. It was savings accounts reclassified to M1. I am so tired of seeing this ****ing chart, someone make it stop.

"From February 2021, M1 will be redefined to include all savings deposits, with existing data revised back to May 2020"

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06-21-2021 , 12:05 PM

#87

cannabusto

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Quote:

Originally Posted by topspinner

I am not sure how anyone in the usa cannot see that there is major inflation going on and it will continue into the foreseeable Future.

The ratio of sales to inventory is the highest in history. Not an economist but if I remember my econ 101 course, prices rise when there are is a higher demand than supply. Too much money chasing too few goods. Thank you mr fed.

Also anecdotally, we are a small manufacturer and every supplier we have has raised their prices since the beginning of the year. Box prices are about to go up for the third time. We import most of our materials from overseas and the price of containers has tripled and even at that price we are waiting several weeks for goods to be shipped.

We can't find any help and we have had to raise our wages almost 20% this year, to attract workers. Every other business owner I have spoken with has had to do the same. Even doing this we still can't find enough help.

My view is that this well end and it will probably end badly, with a recession like 2008, but that will not be happening for awhile and right now I don't see any downward pressure on prices.

My main question is how do you make money on this? I am heavily invested in commodities and precious metals. These have taken a dump the last few days, is this just a short term correction because of what China did or is this a trend? Any thoughts would be most appreciated, if you know there is inflation how do you make money off it?

There are certainly supply shocks, whether they will persist, no one knows. Manufacturing typically doesn't provide great employment conditions compared to other sectors, so it makes sense they would struggle to hire in a tight labor market.

You're already positioned to make money on inflation. Commodities and precious metals are beneficiaries of inflation. But it's not like other investors haven't considered the implications of these factors at play.

Yes, indeed, thank you Mr. Fed. Because if you think this is bad, you have no ****ing clue how dire 2020-present would look like without the Fed.

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06-21-2021 , 12:07 PM

#88

As1an1nvas1on

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isnt that last statement pro-fed?

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06-21-2021 , 12:56 PM

#89

Montrealcorp

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Is necessity actions , means being behind its ideology ?

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06-21-2021 , 01:35 PM

#90

As1an1nvas1on

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the necessity comes from the very high demand for the us dollar

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06-21-2021 , 04:45 PM

#91

cannabusto

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I'm not saying we can't come up with a better system. I'm saying if I were JPow, I would have done the same thing, given the current reality.

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06-21-2021 , 06:20 PM

#92

As1an1nvas1on

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the system is the product of every species trading on earth since the beginning of time

people expecting it to change on the flip of a dime might be in for a bad time

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06-22-2021 , 12:37 PM

#93

cannabusto

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Yeah, I hope it doesn't change on a dime.

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07-13-2021 , 04:26 PM

#94

jbouton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by theskillzdatklls

Don't like the poll options. I'm sure CPI will lie as it always does. Traditionally, inflation in USA has been around 5-6%/year. Currently, it's estimated to be around 11-12%.

The 2% reported is a total joke if you use your brain at all and consider the rising costs of basically any stable/normal item and relate that back in time.

I think maybe u are conflating definitions of inflation a here.

What does it mean to talk about a rate but with no timeline range? Is one implied I'm not aware of?

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07-13-2021 , 11:31 PM

#95

de captain

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I think they're talking about three years from now.

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07-14-2021 , 06:15 PM

#96

jbouton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by de captain

I think they're talking about three years from now.

Sorry, I mean is the question about inflation compared to the time of the OP?

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08-13-2021 , 09:27 PM

#97

jfound

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so how is the inflation numbers now?

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08-17-2021 , 09:30 PM

#98

rivercitybirdie

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Inflation numbers are funny in these times

The exact date of the denominator matters a lot whereas usually it doesn't

One reason inflation prints were so bad much of the last 4 months is that economy was essentially shut down 12 months prior... So prices of things like oil, hotels, cars, airfare were really low.

Then 12 months from now, the denominator will represent a very strong period

Wage inflation has some further distortions too.. Minimum wage jobs dried up completely so the average worker (employed) wage.was.much higher but those.workers.didn't.see that pay raise

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08-17-2021 , 09:37 PM

#99

rivercitybirdie

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As to OP's comments (good comments BTW),

Minimum wage workers should come back in time.. Why work with so much stimulus out there? Working could be negative $EV these days

Not quite the same with box supplies but I'd guess it's mostly short-term bottlenecks. See Lumber... Zero business, shut down, maybe liquidate inventor to satisfy lenders and APay... A year later, big surge, no inventory.. 12-18 months last, normal inventory.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong