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Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now
View Poll Results: Predict Inflation Rate A Year From Now
0-2 Percent (i.e. inflation remains pretty much under control)
7 9.33%
2-4 Percent (mild uptick in inflation but not yet disastrous)
34 45.33%
4-6 Percent (starting to get hot, but not yet out of control)
17 22.67%
6-8 Percent (now we've got a problem ...)
5 6.67%
8 Percent or higher (Disaster - we're screwed ...)
12 16.00%

09-22-2022 , 08:49 AM
Bernanke when he said subprime mortgages were contained. Fed is reactive, not proactive and lagging, they will usually be wrong.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-22-2022 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
I have a full order of TLT/EDV filled over the last 6 weeks. Done buying, I like long duration here for the next year or two.
HOW'S IT WORKING OUT FOR YOU, BRO?
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-22-2022 , 10:07 AM
Down considerably, how’s it going for you bro?
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-22-2022 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
There is no fed put.


Quote:
Originally Posted by As1an1nvas1on
probably wanna look to take the "inflation is trending down" side of the market around this juncture


Quote:
Originally Posted by topspinner
Can the people at the fed be this stupid? Every prediction they made was way wrong. How do these people get and keep their jobs. These were prediction made last year.


1. Rates will remain lower for longer

2. Unlikely to raise rates until 2024

3. We believe a recession is unlikely

4. Inflation is transitory and not a problem

5. Inflation should fall to 2% in 2022

Has there ever been a more wrong Fed?
everything makes a lot more sense once you realize the feds job is not to be right its to manipulate markets make small number of people lots of money and finance the government
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-22-2022 , 05:14 PM
i could have disclaimed as a midterm narrative if the market stops going down... but alas, will withhold my thoughts
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-23-2022 , 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
Down considerably, hows it going for you bro?
I haven't really made any public picks in this forum that I remember. If I had to make one in the theme of this thread it's that the 10 yr will be over 5% within a year. I'm not shorting TLT or anything though, so there's not really an opportunity for anyone to give me a "how's it working out for you, bro" post. I'm mostly in cash and value equities. I'm still not doing particularly well of late, if that makes you feel any better.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-23-2022 , 11:27 AM
I mean, you have a history of just calling out people's picks in retrospect that didn't work out. I was open about my thesis and have been wrong thus far. Not sure why you take pleasure in that when almost everyone is losing this year.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-23-2022 , 05:50 PM
People doing well this year are very unlikely to have done well over the last 10+ years.

If you've done well over the last 10+ years, you've really got nothing valid to complain about* and nobody really has much of a valid criticism of you.

*Other than you are 10+ years older.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-23-2022 , 08:12 PM
I’ve done very well over the last ten years. So well in fact that I retried at 62, have no debt, own a home and land, have over 600 thousand in investments, and will soon move to Sicily and vacation in France. I could sell my current home in the US for an extra bundle of money. And invest that into the Sicilian Mafia. Oodles of potential profit.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-23-2022 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
I’ve done very well over the last ten years. So well in fact that I retried at 62, have no debt, own a home and land, have over 600 thousand in investments, and will soon move to Sicily and vacation in France. I could sell my current home in the US for an extra bundle of money. And invest that into the Sicilian Mafia. Oodles of potential profit.
you will be dead in a few years, and none of that will buy you everlasting eternal iife
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-26-2022 , 01:29 PM
gilt market has totally imploded. treasury market is cracking now. central banks will pivot towards qe in october or their financial systems will cease to function, regardless of how high is inflation
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-26-2022 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
Ive done very well over the last ten years. So well in fact that I retried at 62, have no debt, own a home and land, have over 600 thousand in investments, and will soon move to Sicily and vacation in France. I could sell my current home in the US for an extra bundle of money. And invest that into the Sicilian Mafia. Oodles of potential profit.
Hopefully satire
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-28-2022 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jehova-Jireh
gilt market has totally imploded. treasury market is cracking now. central banks will pivot towards qe in october or their financial systems will cease to function, regardless of how high is inflation
as expected bank of england restarted qe today despite double digit inflation

fed will restart qe by end of this year
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-28-2022 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by topspinner
Can the people at the fed be this stupid? Every prediction they made was way wrong. How do these people get and keep their jobs. These were prediction made last year.


1. Rates will remain lower for longer

2. Unlikely to raise rates until 2024

3. We believe a recession is unlikely

4. Inflation is transitory and not a problem

5. Inflation should fall to 2% in 2022

Has there ever been a more wrong Fed?
Being wrong a lot and keeping your job isn't a fed thing. It is a government thing.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-28-2022 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
Being wrong a lot and keeping your job isn't a fed thing. It is a government thing.
I guess u must work for the government too
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-28-2022 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
I guess u must work for the government too
WP.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-28-2022 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
I know I've said this multiple times in different threads on 2+2 over the last year or so, but seeing as this is the inflation prediction thread I would like to predict that the US economy turns into the Japanese economy over the last 30ish years.
tough buy. US isn't a 1 trick pony and globally still US is leaned on more than JP eco ever truly was.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-28-2022 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
WP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IAMTHISNOW
loool.



pretty much the same economics arguments as you wouldnt say ?
and as soon they talk about implementing it , the currency when into the toilet and the BoE had to restart QE....

But hey, what the markets knows about the economy right ....
U know better.
trickle down for the win !
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 04:13 PM
BOE didn't restart QE for long term. Pension funds were getting margin called and risked systemic collapse, so they were buying long duration for a brief time period to provide liquidity to bail them out.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
There is no fed put. It will be based on a combination of inflation, unemployment and functioning of the credit/treasury markets. Fed doesn't care about stocks.
We'll see

.This market hits 3k and we're in a recession anyway.

So it is kinda moot whether they care or not even if you believe they don't.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 04:17 PM
if we are in a recession and unemployment rises I do believe they will find a pivot. But there will be no pivot if SPY hits 300, inflation is high and unemployment is low.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
BOE didn't restart QE for long term. Pension funds were getting margin called and risked systemic collapse, so they were buying long duration for a brief time period to provide liquidity to bail them out.
Yea I think that’s what the fed said before adding like 5 QE program afterwards in the last 13 years.

https://stocks.apple.com/An8hPnuABRi-NuDknlXxXNw

She do not seem to backing down with the mini budget so what u think will happen in a month ?
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
if we are in a recession and unemployment rises I do believe they will find a pivot. But there will be no pivot if SPY hits 300, inflation is high and unemployment is low.

Basing data on the 2 most lagged indicators is a sure way of success
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 07:39 PM
What do you define as success? You think if inflation is high, unemployment is low that the fed will pivot?
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote
09-29-2022 , 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
What do you define as success? You think if inflation is high, unemployment is low that the fed will pivot?

A success is too achieve their forecast which they almost never do or not creating a crisis which powell did 3 times since 2018 .

They won’t and that will bring the economy in a huge crash forcing them to QE regardless if inflation is high or not at that point .

The funny thing in all of this is the fed did a massive overshoot in inflation but some people Think they would not undershoot in deflation and will be able to stop at 2% for I dunno what ever reason they think the fed will be able too ….

The yen crashing
The euro crashing
The pound crashing
But hey let’s keep the hike rates and QT lol because some lagging inflation indicator still high instead of pausing .

Who u think will buy those treasuries in a very near future beside the fed ?
Everyone selling to counter the US dollar .

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-29-2022 at 10:24 PM.
Poll: Predict Inflation Rate One Year From Now Quote

      
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