i'll see you germany and raise you spain



10% vs. 8.7% expected

june cpi next month will be huge miss to the upside in u.s.

When will it come out in US ?

Opinions are mixed but I certainly think Greenspan cutting FFR to 1% after 9/11 as well as Americans being stock market skittish after tech bust was a major reason that fueled the real estate market. It was seen as "safe", "doesn't go down" and the declining rates were the gasoline on the fire. Obviously the banking stuff played a role, but hard to get that FOMO if fed doesn't cut to 1% for 2 years, which seems like nothing now but was very dovish/aggressive at the time.

Can't assign blame for 2008 with out mentioning one of the worst offenders, bill clinton, for passing the community reinvestment act.

Yep, it wasn't the average-American turned speculator buying multiple $300k+ properties at 100%+ leverage that caused the housing bubble but instead CRA allowing poor people to buy inner-city properties that turned turned it into a trillion dollar financial collapse. And btw CRA predates Clinton and was relaxed heavily under Bush, particularly no-doc loans.

It’s been debunked many time but baham keep riding ideological premise .

It’s always democrats the cause of all evil and bad results towards republicans because republicans always have the best policies .
Having the 15 poorest states in the US being republicans is a testament of how good their policies are ….

Glass Steagall tho under him. Nothing wrong with a bubble as they always happen and get worked through. But when peoples bank deposits are leveraged 20-1 different story. That's the worst outcome.

I've cited the Atlanta fed a few times itt, how predictive do people find their data to be? Never seen any study or writeup on it but seems to get more accurate as the quarter goes on. Although I doubt it was anywhere close to -1.6 in Q1. It just went to -1% for Q2, sounds pretty massive and would mean we're already in a recession.

My oil stuff is getting wrecked lately, may be time to unwind but I'd like to ride it out past midterms as I think we'll see all sorts of political schemes to provide the consumer relief which will atleast keep the price from cratering on demand destruction. State stimulus checks, gas tax suspensions, a more dovish fed perhaps (are they really going to raise into an official recession? I guess Volcker did)

I think CPI/GDP looking at things that have already happened is a lot more accurate than any forward predicting models. Yeah oil/gas getting hammered, I still have my pipeline positions open and dividend is so high, I don't really mind it long term.

why isnt gold going up

Everyone moved to bitcoin?

US dollar .

Gold is one of the best performing assets on the year. Holding steady during rising rates is quite strong.

Because the market falsely believes that the Fed will win the fight against inflation.

But, when the Fed realises that we are in a depression without the QE and zero percent interest rates they will be forced to cut and launch QE 5.

If they don't cut and do QE 5 housing prices will crash and all the banks will fail again and depositors will lose all their money.

When the markets are shocked by the Fed's actions the dollar will crash, Gold will go through the roof and we will start hitting 30 percent annual inflation.

ATL Fed July 1st estimate went from -1% to -2.1%....That is getting far into the negative and towards official recession territory.

So the question now comes, are we in a recession?

Anecdotally, I have to be honest I don't see a ton of evidence of this in real life. People still seem to be out spending, malls, restaurants are full, gas/travel demand doesn't seem down much, hotel rates are sky high. But the #'s don't lie.

lol It must have a high intrinsic value

It's similar to the late 1950s recession in some ways. Quick moderate recession. FED was in a much better position then of course though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1958

Well if the stock market is as they say , a glimpse of futur economic representation, the effective recession for the real economy should be lagging right ?

6-12 months ?
We should be at the beginning now if not already in .
Imho the coming numbers should add a lot of clarity

Sometimes I wonder if the fed premise of « always » rising interest rates to fight Inflation is right ….

Fwiw when Inflation comes from supply shock it seem totally inappropriate.
Why raises interest rates that will prevent investment to solve supply issues ?
Makes no sense to me .

That’s how inflation gets resolve by higher prices right ?
It goes down when sufficient investment to profits from high prices gets done isn’t ?
Why not let inflation run hot enough to permit corporation to create more supply with profits from inflated prices ?
If they won’t , other places in the world will eventually.

I would understand raising rates because of high demand shock but seem to me this inflation is not caused by a demand shock right ?

I think fed strategy will just prolong the Inflation problem unless they really create a very bad recession which is totally ******ed imo .

Why would anyone would want a high dollar with so much debts ?

I believe the inflation narrative is just hiding a much bigger issue that the fed fighting for ( Russia/China and trying to keep the US dollar as the « only viable « reserve currency ) under the umbrella of Inflation for appearances of neutrality from the US dollar which obv is bs .

Just watch the yield curve. 30 days inverted is always recession. Best metric. Everytime.

Yes sure but to be reflected in the real economy it takes time right ?

Lumber is down 50%, copper is crashing. Those are usually pretty good indicators. I don't see how CPI doesn't come down now. It's the right thing to do. Lower middle class can't afford housing in cities. Rent or buy. Then their pinched everywhere else. Middle, upper middle class feeling it in the stock market because every financial advisor has them overweight Nasdaq heavy indexes and stocks. If it weren't for the supply chain and labor problems I would be positive CPI will fall off a cliff. I was working in the food industry and it's terrible right now. Food costs are rising so they're forced to raise prices like never before, on top of higher labor costs. Labor market still restructuring from Covid. I hope FED strategy works and they stick to it so we don't have runaway inflation. They always said mandate was stock market stability, atleast Bernanke. Didn't listen to many Yellen speeches.

EDIT: I was gonna post the link
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

I think it's stock market correction then CPI mostly. Markets usually react the fastest. I mean it's always lagging, Nobody can predict the exact future.

You're right. To fight inflation we need to raise taxes and cut government spending. We need to get our fiscal house in order.

But, the government will never do that, because they know that the politician that get's elected is the politician that offers the most free stuff.

The politician that says he is going to cut taxes and send out cheques for electricity and child payments is the one that gets elected.

All that deficit spending for these bogus socialist programs then has to be monetized by the FED which creates the inflation.

That's why we need to go back on the Gold standard.

Politicians have to be forced to live within their means, otherwise they crash the currency every single time, to further their own political agenda.

Raising interest rates doesn't solve the problem, because now we will roll into recession, the Fed will be forced to cut again and inflation will then march even higher.

The government getting people hooked on welfare is not in their best interest. It's what's keeping the economy sick.