I was one of the minority votes choosing 6-8%, looks like I am trending correctly so far.

wat can we do to stop inflation

short and for long term

I just dunno why people freak so much about inflation .
What people expect when governments borrows so much money for the pandemic ?
At some point you have to pay it back right ?

Fwiw it’s probably just the beginning imo .
What you think going to happen on the next crash ?
More QE and bailouts for the stock market …

Why? Lol

Pretty easy. Most ppl dont make a lot of money and when basic goods go up more than wages they get ****ed

Raise interest rates. The Feds dual mandate is price stability and full employment, they are failing at half of their mandates. They used to have 3 mandates and removed one when it became too difficult to maintain. The third mandate was to sustain a moderate rate of interest, which I take to mean an interest rate that at least matched historical inflation, so around 2%. I expect them to remove the price stability mandate and we will remain with only the full employment mandate. Everyone will be employed yay, but the wages people receive will buy them almost nothing, just like the old USSR.

No really ?
What did you expect ?
It is what the Americans wanted ….

Isn’t it ironic ?

But I tough people are poor because they are not working really really hard right ?
Lol ….

Shadowstats is estimating that the true number is just shy of 15%, which I have always found to be a more realistic measure of inflation than the reported 6%+ 30-year high if you just use some common sense and think back a number of years to what things used to cost.

The 2% number thrown around for forever was a joke. If you think back 20-25 years to all of our younger years, 2% just does not check out at all assuming we are talking about staple items and not things like technology.

The EUR does seem to have things under much better control, whatever that is worth in the medium term.

Nah. Shadowstats is obvious nonsense. Inflation is not some totally mysterious thing that we just have to take the governments word for. MIT/Harvard has an independent academic check that matches up very well with CPI. They've used the same methodology to catch governments like Argentina's that were systematically lying about prices in real time.

Ironically your own "common sense" advice would have prevented you from making this mistake Shadowstats is saying CPI is always understating inflation by near 4% year after year after year. That would be an additional hidden , full doubling of prices since 2000 on top of CPI which obviously just hasn't happened. Why people blindly trust shadowstasts without doing even basic back of the envelope checks is beyond me.

Why is it nonsense? They literally change the basket of goods to downgrade it to fit a gov't narrative and reduce debt obligations.

I don't know all the things that have been done to CPI over the decades, but one example I'm familiar with is that in the 1980s part of the basket of goods changed an item from steak to ground beef.

I guess someone could call them arguably the same, but I wouldn't. I'd call a steak a steak and continue measuring that as a single price target entity over time. And when each directional change seems to go in this same direction, I'd call it rather strategic than coincidental/accidental.

Creating a new basket of goods to track that against itself (like ground beef) is perfectly fine to modernize lists and keep with the times. But at least compare assets to themselves.

"Blindly" trusting shadowstats isn't really what I've done. I know roughly what things used to cost me. And there's simply no way in hell that it tracks to 2% or whatever. How you've come to that logic is beyond me. But... I guess it ultimately doesn't really matter. You can either put your $ towards inflation geared investments or not, and that's really how you can try to beat me in the long term than this internet debate.

The problem is usually , “real sustainable inflation” is measure through the money supply and it would appear everywhere , not just some sectors .

This would mean a 15% Inflation would see money supply growing at 15% every year .
Even 10% is incredibly high .
Mathematically it just do not add up .

An inflation rates of 10% would mean every items would double every 7 years .
No way cars , houses , etc . Double in such short time frame .

2020 was 20- 25% (M2) and it was very exceptional.

Yes CPI is understated by a margin for reason you explain .
But it surely isn’t as big as shadow stats implies if they are in double digits .

The funny thing in all of this is people says technology is deflationary (rightly so) , even tho car prices stays around the same because they add up every year more technology gadgets in it to not prevent car prices to fall claiming the car is much better than the prior year .

I thought I explained that. The values Shadowstats gives ae way wrong. The billion prices index gives a fully public method, down to raw rprice data, for calculating inflation. Over the last 13 years since it started, it is very close to CPI and massively diverges from Shadowstats. As Shadowstats doesn't even provide any methodology the obvious conclusion is that it's just nonsense by and for crazy people.

Funny, the hamburger/steak myth is such a widely repeated meme that it's debunked directly on the BLS website.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/c...-about-cpi.htm

Maybe if independent checks on CPI showed large divergences we could dicuss the why. Bur the former have not shown up in credible studies so it's more like discussing religion with some.

Inflation is actually a good thing!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/01/econo...ers/index.html

To say inflation is close to CPI is quite the take lmao

SP500 goes up 40% while most companies are barely productive
Houses go up 20%+

But yeah inflation is def CPI

Lol

The inflation we are seeing is caused by supply chain & labour market deteroriation.
Long-term high inflation has historically always been caused by political instability and rising population pressures.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vineerb...h=30637d244399

“ One big technical problem with including asset prices in inflation metrics is that since asset prices are very volatile, they would make the inflation metrics very volatile (see chart below), making it much harder for policy makers to observe one number that they can then target with real-time monetary policy, such as raising or lowering interest rates.”

It wouldn’t make any sense to include assets prices knowing the top 10% owns around 85~90% of the stock markets .
You would apply wrongly any policies based on inflation that wouldn’t affect like 90% of the population.

Obviously it doesn’t justify to keep bailing them out .

Well…..
Without all the money government borrowed for the pandemic to give to the people , the demand side wouldn’t exploded compare to the supply side right ?

It is still a form of inflation .
Wether we should called money borrowed by government not the same as money printing , I let that decide to the experts .
The results is nonetheless the same .

It’s not really a take. It’s just exactly what has happened when you look at the last 13 years of prices vs CPI as the billion prices project has done. Looking at the SP 500 is a waste of time in this conversation, it’s up 40% from the bottom after earnings crashed and people were unsure if they would recover in 2021. But prices never dropped by 40% when the SP did so it has little to do with inflation.

I remember seeing this thread months ago and thinking the poll is cute and all, but why should we care about the inflation over a one year period if we are trying to guess how disastrous closing the economy, printing significantly more money than we do on average and increasing government spending has been over the past couple years. Considering only inflation data over a year period and how these 3 policies (closing the economy, printing more money & increasing government spending) effected that data is as silly as politicians suggesting tax cuts/increases only effected the economic growth by x% over a only a couple years of data - it is beyond silly to ignore a future increase or decrease in economic growth caused by a tax increase or cut.

I think a good analogy for this would be a company that is contemplating building a new factory and increasing its workforce only looking at the upfront cost of building the factory + hiring more people and the increase revenues over the next 2 years as opposed to the increase in revenue and costs over the next 100 years. Building the factory is a long-term investment that looks bad short term (similar to tax cuts), but usually are a net positive long-term. I guess these 3 disastrous policies are a bit different than my analogy since they look terrible both short and long term, but you hopefully get the point.

EDIT: FYI, I understand that having a poll that asks what inflation will do over the next 25 years because of these disastrous policies is also dumb since nobody is going to remember the poll even 5 years from now.

I'll be honest in that I misread the poll from the start. I realized at some point that the poll meant what will the government reported numbers end up as, rather than what I thought the actual amount of inflation there was/is. What my answer would have been back then given that information, I'm not quite sure. But sounds like 8%+ as I voted on the poll isn't off the table by any means since the number keeps going up. Side note, but I think it's hilarious how wrong Tooth is on literally every single comment he makes in the threads I see him in. It's almost impressive.

I am surprised by the numbers released by the government lately in some sense and not surprised in some other senses. There's been an insane amount of stimulus with very little happening under the hood to justify what's happening in the markets. Anyone with a few live brain cells realizes this.

From what I've been reading though, the fed, the ECB, everyone is starting to panic at the higher levels and raising rates are going to happen sooner, more frequently and in larger doses than they initially planned on doing. One quote said it will start early next year with rates expected to rise 3 times over 2022.

The really bizarre thing to me was when these financial political elites kept calling inflation "transitory". Wtf? You can't inject that much money into a stagnated economy and have things be transitory. They admit that was a mistake now, all of them. But I knew it was a mistake the moment they uttered it out of their mouths. And I'm far and away from an "expert". Maybe I'm just not a liar? I don't know.

I think the boys at the fed really wanted to do inaction as their preferred course of monetary policy since it was the easiest course of action and the least likely to cause any panic even though raising rates earlier was probably the most responsible thing to do. But now they have little choice if it's picking between that or hyperinflation or a bail-in.

How they do this and when they do this will be interesting to watch. And how much impact it has will also be interesting to watch. I'm also extremely curious what will happen to the overinflated markets. Will they crash, stagnate or continue to go up? I could see pretty easy answers to justify any one of those situations presently, so I'm confused on that end myself. Whereas before, I pretty much only saw the number for markets going up with all the added money shifting from stimulus checks / printing into the hands of asset holders.

Many inflation truthers who were certain we would see high inflation now were equally certain we’d see it in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 etc etc etc. A ton were straight up liars that claimed to still be right after it didn’t happen by finding fringe sources like Shadowstats that told them what they wanted to hear. Being wrong about predictions of the future is a completely different category of error than being unable to speak honestly about the past.

It's clearly a matter of debate as to whether or not people think the government's CPI is honest or not. I don't think it is. You or others may think it is. Ok, that's fine. You say 2% I say 6%. Whatever.

So I think the relative rates of inflation are higher than posted. But I also never at any point in the past (2010 era) thought inflation was going to spiral out of control (for example, you saying 7% I say 13%) because there was no very solid evidence of that being the case.

But when you inject trillions into an economy that's stagnated, that's really basic level econ 101 stuff. There's really no other option. I don't think making these calls in the past or present were that difficult at all.

Who cares about CPI? I already linked to the billion prices index. Their method is fully public and you can check it yourself. You look silly when you just take on some sort of religious faith that inflation must be higher than the. billion prices index when they show a detailed calculation that can be followed step by step and you have nothing.

Are you saying assets inflation does not exist and should not be accounted for?

At this point talk is cheap, do you own a house? Do you own assets?

The billion prices index does not account for rent, food, and energy inflation, just consumer trinkets that get purchased at online retailers. Rent, food, and energy are the things working class people must pay for in order to not be homeless. Pretentious gaslighting public sector parasites, those are the only types of people that defend government inflation figures. They fear losing those generous pensions and make work salaries if the plebs ever wake up and demand the Fed return to price stability of the dollar.