I've read quite a bit about platinum and with a price lower than gold (!) I think it's a good opportunity to buy it. Discuss.

It (like practically everything else in the world) is currently falling off of a cliff with no indication of where or when it may find bottom.

Wait for at least a base to form and preferably some sort of reversal or upside breakout signal. I know nothing of the fundamentals but stepping in front of a speeding locomotive never seems like a good idea to me. I trade trends and momentum and right now those are both seriously against you.

platinum is heavily tied to its industrial usage, in a deflationary recession its price will suffer as there is much less 'safe haven/monetary' demand for platinum vs gold.

However I do agree that platinum being cheaper than gold makes it a good buy, but I wouldn't want to try to catch that falling knife today

I like it more than gold, but wouldn't be a buyer here. I am long a small position.

Ok, after observing and reading about platinum for quite a while I've decided to get myself onto this train.
After selloff of precious metals platinum got hurt as well. I've been waiting for a good entry point for quite a bit. At the time of the first post PT was at around 1700 in the process of falling down from it's highs.
Cliffs of my research:
- i love trade unions in South Africa. Like with all trade unions they strike more than work . Thanks to them, production of PT fell down by 16% in 2012.
- continuous problems with electricity supply thanks to the gvmt monopoly (ESCOM)
- no real alternatives to South Africa. 87% platinum comes from there.
- high cash costs. Lots of mines already losing money.
- much much rarer than gold (although I'm long gold too and added to my position after selloff )
- lots of industrial uses
There is new south african ETF which has taken 371 000 ounces of PT from the market.

Based on the current situation I belive PT is longterm buy now. Let's gambooool (1383USD for reference) !!!

Is someone against before I buy ?

Thinking about going long on platinum with you when the market opens today. I used work in finance with an eye on the metals and mining sector and agree with most points in your analysis below.

With that said, it is definitely still a gamble.

1) Gold and silver can always pull platinum down with it if their prices continue to crash (although there has been a small rebound lately)

2) Palladium beginning to replace platinum for industrial uses. The largest industrial use of platinum is as an autocatalyst and palladium is a strong alternative to it. Although from a technical perspective, palladium still needs to be used in conjunction with platinum, this may slowly erode one of the largest demands for platinum

I still think that the market is poised for a rebound and am feeling bullish as well right now. How are you planning to invest in platinum? Are you going to buy PPLT (the largest platinum ETF)?

@1 Yeah I definitely agree with it.
@2 That's definitely true too. The price of palladium affects demand for platinum. I'll have to pay more attention to palladium as well.
@gambling - I like gambling . I'm young enough to take a lot of risks and maximize my EV. Well, probably not as young as most on this forum but still below 30 .

Since I'm in europe I like to buy through ZKB Platinum ETF.

Terrible idea. You have no concept of the market. Only down 4% in 2 days.

If you like to gamble, try something easier than commods.

If you had an appreciation of the conditions down a deep shaft mine in South Africa, the fatality statistics, or the inequality that the labour force there still face, I doubt you would make comparisons to western trade unions as we know them. These people are tough and not work shy I can assure you.

Still, the points you make are valid, and bullish for the Zar platinum price. This is not the same as the $ price though.

So what it's down 4%? Your post is terrible too.

Obviously, I feel sorry for people in South Africa.

I figured it may be good idea to update this thread from time to time. Someone might be interested and help me if I'm wrong.

These are my thoughts and I'm a NOOB here so opposite opinions with explanation are very welcomed.

RSI: In the region of overbought with a trend to go higher.
MACD: In the positive but it seems to be a stagnating there for now.

Generally speaking, metal is in the wide horizontal channel 1275 CHF - 1600CHF. Inside it, steep uptrend is forming which is now around the middle part of the outer channel and clearly above MA(50). Price differential with gold is becoming bigger.

Platinum is getting stronger, with good fundamentals (listed in previous post). I still think it's a good buy, even at those prices. PT cheaper than gold will be a good old memory, IMHO.

If you like Platinum at approx $1,500/oz I would think Rhodium at approx $1,000/oz would be even more attractive.

I think rhodium is probably much less traded than plat & wilder up/down swings, but current upside potential much greater if you've got $$ to gamble with?

yes, no?

Yo guys does anyone like this here or at the very least a pair trade with palladium short which is actually more of what this post is about?

Palladium is hitting a historic all time high while platinum is pretty much at a multi decade low. Palladium took over the price lead over platinum in late 2017 (historically platinum has been more expensive with the exception of a brief spike in 2000/1) and has steadily increased this gap to now ($1433 vs $808). These are generally mined in the same places (Russia/South Africa dominate the market) among the same companies although the supply/demand dynamic has become very uneven.

Palladium is primarily used to help curb auto emissions (catalytic converters that help reduce/limit toxic gasses being emitted) but here's the catch so is platinum. There seems to have been this expectation that demand would shift as the prices on each metal flipped but it just hasn't happened and demand has remained steady for palladium. With platinum languishing and over supplied its having the reverse effect on palladium.

Platinum's demand comes from about 60% industrial (jewelry takes 30%) but that demand is spread out over a lot of different applications. Palladium demand is about 94% industrial and is primarily found in these types of converters.

Is this dramatic shift in the spread between the two temporary and a good trade is looming here or is there something more going on than a short term supply shock in palladium that supports this breakout? Some links below on where I got some of my information.

http://www.mining.com/web/quite-unus...lladium-ratio/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/...ll-metals/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mar...5-F17E8F3B0CE1

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...PLZRVy&ampcf=1

I don't historically trade in precious metals, so take my comment with a grain of salt.

Not a huge fan of the palladium short here. It seems like there are numerous unknown variables involved:

Do we know what if any developments are potentially on the horizon that could replace the use of Palladium?

Looks like both metals are small markets, although one article points out the consistency of producing stable quantities year over year. Iff Russia and South Africa make up a combined 75% of the mined Palladium, I could see it being a volatile geopolitical risk.

That being said, I don't hate the trade, but I don't think I could call the top on this with much certainty. I'm a bigger fan of long Platinum than I am short Palladium honestly, just from looking at a 5 year chart of both.

I'm still confused on what "Palladium sponge" is, but this makes sense with such a limited market:
[I]
No one knows how much palladium has already been mined, refined and stashed away into off-exchange storage.[/I]

I would agree that in general it seems like we have a disparity that is potentially tradeable, but I we need a catalyst for Palladium to head back down... the front month Palladium futures chart looks insanely strong to me, it seems very difficult to call the top here. From both a charting perspective and bias after reading about both metals, I highly prefer a PL long to a PA short. Not sure what kind of time horizon you're considering holding these for, I could se PA easily heading to 1600-1700 in the next 2-3 months before we see relief. But again, I'm just learning what Palladium is used for this morning, so there could easily be factors i'm not considering, but thought i'd throw the semi-layman's perspective on it.

Monster reversal in palladium today (~-6%)after these comments, long platinum/short palladium still the best way to play imo.