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Old 05-11-2017, 04:58 PM   #201
BooLoo
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Originally Posted by bigt2k4 View Post
So ignoring the 750k the company did an additional 100k of new product, but still came in at the bottom of your estimated range at $5.12m? Or did you already adjust it down to 5.87?
no company did 6.62$, without one time engineering revenue of $750k makes it $5.87m, so above BCIs prediction
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Old 05-11-2017, 05:00 PM   #202
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work BCI! This is the first stock I've ever bought and I really appreciate all of your insight and analysis. Thanks!
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Old 05-11-2017, 05:08 PM   #203
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Looking great at first glance, margins to 37% wow! Will read it all when I get home from work, grats all
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Old 05-11-2017, 05:11 PM   #204
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Yea, I've already said thanks before, but this has been a fun sweat the last couple of years. Thanks again for sharing BCI
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Old 05-12-2017, 07:27 AM   #205
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

How do they get more analyst coverage etc? Results look great but seems like market isn't noticing?
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Old 05-12-2017, 08:51 AM   #206
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Make enough profits that someone takes notice and the price goes up and then more take notice?
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Old 05-12-2017, 09:15 AM   #207
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Amazing news, I would also like to thank BCI for sharing this with us. Should be fun going forward.
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Old 05-12-2017, 09:51 AM   #208
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Broke out of that 4.50-5.60 range it was in for a long time
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Old 05-16-2017, 11:28 AM   #209
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Most important thing from this earnings report is the Gross Margin %. They got a small benefit from lower warranty accrual this quarter. The one time engineering services revenue of $750k is actually low margin so net-net sustainable gross margin % should be in the 35-36% range moving forward which is huge and much better than I expected. This, combined with the large $ commitment of orders already in house, should allow them to keep pumping out 20%+ ebitda margins for the foreseeable future. The market seems to have reacted as though the GP % was an anomaly and not sustainable.
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Old 05-17-2017, 12:16 PM   #210
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Down to 5.70 today, who the hell is selling down here after that quarter? If I had more income coming in I would load up more. Stock seems to want to go back into its range
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Old 05-17-2017, 01:08 PM   #211
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Originally Posted by bigt2k4 View Post
Down to 5.70 today, who the hell is selling down here after that quarter? If I had more income coming in I would load up more. Stock seems to want to go back into its range
What would/could be motivation for artificially keeping the price in that price range? Just speculating but this seems intentional.
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Old 05-17-2017, 01:12 PM   #212
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

CEO appears to have exercised an option on some shares on the day as the earnings came out then sold most of them the same day after the price ran up? Looks a bit fishy I guess?
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Old 05-17-2017, 01:14 PM   #213
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

The shares he sold were only around 10% of his total position though and he still finished the day with more shares than he started with by the looks of it.
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Old 05-17-2017, 02:30 PM   #214
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Ignore my last posts. CEO did exercise an option and sell some of the stock but it wasn't on the day of the earnings release it was yesterday. Not sure how I misread that.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:51 PM   #215
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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Ignore my last posts. CEO did exercise an option and sell some of the stock but it wasn't on the day of the earnings release it was yesterday. Not sure how I misread that.
His option to buy those shares at $4.38 expires 5/18/2017 from the employee stock plan and seems he sold just the amount to pay for those shares and is free rolling the rest.
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Old 05-22-2017, 04:26 PM   #216
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Nabbed another 2k shares in afterhours trading right after the close today at 5.40.

Looking like the value deal of the decade, going to start depleting my ability to daytrade soon with how many shares i'm acquiring.
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Old 05-22-2017, 06:36 PM   #217
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

The reaction to their quarterly report has been perplexing to say the least.
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Old 05-22-2017, 07:20 PM   #218
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Soon 2p2 will own the company. Activism at its best!
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Old 05-23-2017, 12:43 AM   #219
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

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The reaction to their quarterly report has been perplexing to say the least.
I agree the market reaction has been surprising but we've seen stuff like this before. When the company reported blowout earnings Feb 2016 the market really under reacted almost saying "lets see if you can do that again!". Then they did it again in May 2016 and between May and July the stock went from $3.75 to $6.50. They just put up 1 amazing quarter, the market seems to be calling a bluff, we will just have to wait for them to put up another good quarter of 35%+ GP Rate and 20% ebitda margins. Unfortunately we have to wait all summer until September for that. The big knock against the company valuation-wise is the customer concentration and contractual nature of their medical device revenues so maybe that is driving some hesitation but who knows. At the end of the day, the company is generating an insane amount of cash, actively pursuing new business, and has great management running the show so no need to get antsy.
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Old 06-05-2017, 03:42 AM   #220
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Just in the interest of keeping a conversation going if anyone's interested, I attempted contacting Ray, Nick, and Kirk with various questions through methods I will not disclose. It would seem BCI may have a lock on communications with management as I did not receive a response to any of my inquiries. Figured it was worth a try!

On a side note, i'm wondering if anyone else finds this portion of the quarterly interesting? Referencing page 24:

We currently believe that our existing cash and cash equivalent balances as
well as our account receivable balances and anticipated cash flows from operations will provide us sufficient funds to satisfy our cash
requirements as our business is currently conducted for at least the next 12 months.


Boilerplate, or indicative of short to mid term dilution plans? Interested in thoughts
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Old 06-05-2017, 12:13 PM   #221
BCI23
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

boilerplate language, means nothing.

I have no special communication method with the company. Call the corporate number, hit 5 or whatever for investor inquiries, leave a message for Rick explaining who you are and he usually gets back in a day or two. If you want to talk to Nick/Ray state that in the message you leave Rick.
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:29 PM   #222
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Hopefully not being too annoying with all the posts in here, but BCI, interested in commenting on rate of legacy business decline? Rate of decline/how long revenue is going to be generated from legacy business?

Thoughts on quarters after November? Lot's of excess capital even without stock price growth, are we thinking investment in the public market?
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Old 06-27-2017, 01:24 AM   #223
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

I talked to Rick this morning.

Covered a number of topics.

Asked him about the rate of decline in ancillary legacy business, he reiterated it is a not a focus and they will let revenue play out without any type of reinvestment and focus on the core medical device business. We already knew this and I kind of pressed on what rate he expected for ancillary decline but he didn't expand on it.

The share repurchase program has been rescinded. It is no longer in effect. The 3rd party responsible said they could not have an S-3 filing open at the same time as a share repurchase program, and the repurchase has been cancelled. Apparently, that's not something that's required for them to disclose or we would have seen that already.

Asked what the plan was for excess capital, and it sounds like time being, capital will be reinvested in opportunities in the general market, but that acquisition and share issuance is certainly on the table, but I got the impression that wouldn't be an offer until a significantly higher price point. He said they'd "like the price to be higher" if they were going to utilize the "ATM" share issuance for capital.

I asked about margins and he said the 30's we're going to be sustainable for the foreseeable future. He seemed confident in their ability to maintain a backlog of orders and the existing core medical business to maintain ongoing EPS/margin rates.

Also asked about customer concentration being a risk factor, he told me they're working on that and have a number of potential new customers in the pipeline to spread out some of that concentration risk. He told me the goal is "10-15" customers, which is obviously a lot less risky than having 3 customers as 75%+ of your revenue.

My interpretation of our call is that the S-3 filing will be utilized at some point, reason undisclosed, but that they're waiting for the price to rise. He alluded to waiting for the price to rise before using it. Given that the share buyback is completely off the table, you'd think they may have some plan in the works, but they have it "on the table" just in case an opportunity arises. I certainly interpreted his conversation as being confident in the stock price rising in the near-mid-term future, but he either did not disclose or does not know what that excess capital would be used for specifically.

I think he's pretty surprised at the price the stock is at currently, and seemed confident in at least some sort of rise in the 3-9 month period following.

Definitely an encouraging call with so little information and additional due diligence to be had, very nice guy and open to all questions that I had.

- I also contacted Nick at groveland, his assistant said he was on vacation this next week but would get back to me. Would love to pick his brain on the direction of the stock in the short/mid/long term, as well as his relationship with other companies he's been a major player in.

Hope i'm not drinking the Koolaid but I've spent way too many hours doing due diligence with this stock, and I certainly think there's still a lot of potential here.
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Old 06-27-2017, 07:29 AM   #224
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

Good info. Speaking of Nick, AIRT reports earnings today.
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Old 06-27-2017, 11:46 AM   #225
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Re: PDEX - My Largest Position

New investor presentation, lots of good info, frames up the long term runway very well: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...dex_ex99z1.htm
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