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Old 02-25-2016, 06:53 PM   #176
JiggsCasey
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Excellent. I goaded you into bumping your own (now extremely embarrassing) thread. The people who read the OP for the first time with oil now at $30 are going to go WTF and have a fun read. As I said in the other thread:
Oh, hey Trump defender!!! .... So you admit you lied. I didn't "run away" from the thread at all. YOU did. That's what I thought.

It is funny watching you confuse a deflationary commodities spiral for global abundance of natural resources. What an economist.

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The fact that you don't think that the price dropping to $30 and staying there despite increasing demand and deliberately decreased supply (wells being taken offline) says anything about the cogency of the thesis is just comical - it's textbook crazy.
Past consumption is future demand? Where did you go to school? ... .

I understand how someone in your world insists essential resources are 100% aligned with the invisible hand, but that's not quite how it works all the time. Just like water, people must have oil at any price. Without it, society breaks down. ... When you take the insane debt loads out of the equation, we'd already be in global production decline. ... .The $30 oil price that you continue to masturbate over has everything to do with the tight oil industry's ability to open (seemingly) limitless lines of credit for crap-grade oil that amounts to feed stock. ... Yes, they overproduced for a few years. They were warned it was unsustainable, and now the industry is in cardiac arrest.

That morons like you don't understand the production lag time between the peak and the shuttering of wells is hardly surprising. But U.S. production - the only country that was accounting for global production volume growth since 2010 - is now in terminal decline. Meanwhile, the global economy is on the brink as a direct result.

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Even if you don't accept that, you have to admit that anyone who invested based on your ideas lost an absolute fortune. And since this is BFI - that's a big fat lol.
LOL!!!! ... When did I claim I was here to pass on investment advice on a forum full of free market cultists programmed into a certain mode of S/D group think? That's you creating a general straw man. Please, keep your money right where it is. You'll learn soon enough. Infinite growth addicts always do.

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
As for EROEI, considering that I went into a detailed post some pages ago (when oil was $100) about why that doesn't matter while we have abundant non-oil energy sources, I think you're reaching a little.
Yes, and it was addressed at the time. We don't have abundant "non-oil energy resources," and even if we did, they don't do the same work that hydrocarbons do. But, you wouldn't know anything about energy density, as you've proven time and time again.

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Old 02-25-2016, 06:54 PM   #177
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Nice bump, Jiggs.

Maybe Jim will update his charts.

We all know that demand has dropped off the charts and supply is dwindling like a waterfall.
It's always most abundant right before the peak, genius. That's why it's referred to as the peak.

Meanwhile, the data going forward? Not in your favor.... at all.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:02 PM   #178
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
It's always most abundant right before the peak, genius. That's why it's referred to as the peak.

Meanwhile, the data going forward? Not in your favor.... at all.
You could have said that any time since the mid-1930s. My data only goes back that far, so maybe further.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:16 PM   #179
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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You could have said that any time since the mid-1930s. My data only goes back that far, so maybe further.
Brian, the algae-for-oil fanboy, confusing "forward" with "back."

Good talk.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:24 PM   #180
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
Brian, the algae-for-oil fanboy, confusing "forward" with "back."

Good talk.
Make another prediction for us, Jiggs!

I predict that oil will average less than $50/barrel until your next temp-ban.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:32 PM   #181
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Jiggs, I'm not even going to say anything at first. Merely quote the comedy in your OP with oil now at $30 and massively oversupplied two years later. Here goes:

March 9th 2014:
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
what is the real price of oil right now? What would the "free market" set it at? ... $125? How about $140? ...
Quote:
Now imagine the world today if oil had been $130-150 this whole time, where it perhaps belonged? Or what the S&P will shrink to if oil price spikes to where it "needs to be?"
Quote:
Obviously the most important question springs to mind: What does that say about global production totals going forward? Still think we'll be maintaining that mind-boggling 91M barrels per day?
(we're at 96.5 million barrels/day now and oil is massively oversupplied still such that wells are being capped)

Quote:
Are we to believe that smaller companies will ride to the rescue? Will vast US reserves of oil and gas from shale rock under U.S. neighborhoods continue to fill the ever-widening gap left behind by flat conventional production? (9 years years running, now)... Not likely. There is far more evidence unconventional production is already tightening, not expanding as the industry and big media would have you believe.
Shale expanded so much since this post that it flooded the world (see graph below), and the US even overtook Saudi Arabia as the biggest producer of oil. Now the huge excess of supply has pushed the price is so low that the shale wells are being capped, ready to be brought back online when the price rises again.

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Anyone confused or skeptical about why this matters is encouraged to listen to Douglas-Westward's managing director Steve Kopits recently at Columbia Univ.
Sounds like your expert knew what he was talking about!

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With investment suddenly scaled way back, it won't be long now before conventional production begins decline (1-2 years?). At that point, no amount of desperate hydraulics under U.S. neighborhoods will calm the markets.
Well we're at that point. The "desperate hydraulics" are in fact being turned off because of massive oversupply. You cannot fail a prediction worse than this one.
Quote:
Ah well. Heed it, and invest accordingly. Or don't. Your call.
Hopefully no one did. They would have lost everything.

And for the final thread classic, here's your response to me last year when I noted that oil was dropping to $60 and your thesis of a supply shock in 1-2 years (from March 2014) was failing miserably:
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
Gosh, are we at March of 2016 yet?

I called for 1-2 years. Has that played out yet? Meanwhile, look at U.S. shale production already. Oops... GFY.
I have 3 days to go until it's March 2016. I'll bump the thread when that happens. Oil is at $30 and we're 2 million barrels/day in oversupply even with shale wells being capped and Iran still to come online.

Quote:
Yeah, you'd better hope and pray Iranian production comes online for your "No Problem" outlook on global capacity. ... Like, as soon as yesterday. Because U.S. production (uneconomic as it is) is set to nosedive.
US production since this post:



Iran has yet to come online (another couple of million barrels/day at least in capacity) which will further flood the market with excess supply.

Anyway, your complete inability to admit fault even when the data has crushed your stated predictions and those of your experts is just amazing. There's no need to reply to you; the data speaks for itself.
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Old 02-25-2016, 08:01 PM   #182
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Make another prediction for us, Jiggs!

I predict that oil will average less than $50/barrel until your next temp-ban.
I predict that you still won't understand that price at the wellhead is quite different from price traded on markets... nor that both are very different from price to produce.

Tell us more about the vast potential for turning algae to oil for 800 million combustion engine vehicles!!!!
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Old 02-25-2016, 08:04 PM   #183
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Tooth, I'll respond to your latest nonsense later tonight or tomorrow.

But for now, Iran will not add 2M barrels per day... More like 600K, and that won't offset decline from other nations.

By the way, global production is down 339,000 barrels per day since July, according to JODI. Try and keep up.

Please provide more charts showing U.S. production literally in decline. Thanks!!
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Old 02-25-2016, 08:45 PM   #184
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
I predict that you still won't understand that price at the wellhead is quite different from price traded on markets... nor that both are very different from price to produce.
I'm quite aware of it. Some really crappy liquids are going for negative all-in dollars per barrel. We've seen this time and time again, yet you still don't get it despite nearly two hundred years of evidence.

It is simple math. You aren't on to some magical area where you have expertise that somehow no one else sees.

Quote:
Tell us more about the vast potential for turning algae to oil for 800 million combustion engine vehicles!!!!
I didn't tell anything about that at all and I wasn't going to tell more now.

I said that it was well-worth researching. Basic science projects are good (my thesis), and that thesis is even better now cheap given these extremely low oil prices making the cost of the research actually below zero!
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Old 02-25-2016, 08:46 PM   #185
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

[QUOTE=ToothSayer;49454608]...QUOTE]

Dumbass. Miles driven is a much easier slam.
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Old 02-26-2016, 12:25 AM   #186
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Tooth, if you enjoy Jiggs '14 you'll love Jiggs '09!

Jiggs, did you notice those >95mbd numbers yet?
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Old 02-26-2016, 08:21 AM   #187
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Man Jiggs is literally the most stubborn person in this site. I almost admire it. Almost.
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Old 02-26-2016, 07:55 PM   #188
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
Tooth, if you enjoy Jiggs '14 you'll love Jiggs '09!

Jiggs, did you notice those >95mbd numbers yet?
Not real oil!!!

Jiggs is making a mint off this. He just can't point to a single investment he has ever made.
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Old 02-26-2016, 09:22 PM   #189
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

please dont feed the troll
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Old 02-27-2016, 06:12 PM   #190
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

It's interesting that you just continue to ignore my posts hammering your "no problem" thesis, and just fall back to resorting to straw men. Ah well, I'm happy to continue pointing out your missteps:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Jiggs, I'm not even going to say anything at first. Merely quote the comedy in your OP with oil now at $30 and massively oversupplied two years later. Here goes:
Yeah, see bigot, all of those posts represent the price of oil that the industry absolutely needs to maintain free cash flow. Not the price where I predicted global Brent would actually be. Try and follow along, or at least try and be honest about what I've written.

Reminds me of an important passage recently:
Remember, peaking in production, by definition, means that you have plenty of oil left. It has nothing to do with running out. … The only people who ever use the phrase ‘running out of oil’ are people who either don’t understand Peak Oil, or people trying to mislead an audience about Peak Oil (Tooth, jj, etc.). Because again, if you can successfully mislead an audience and frame the argument as ‘No more oil’ vs ‘We still have oil’ – you again set yourself up for an easy debate victory. - D. Ray Long
Anyhow, back to your inability to understand industry price requirements:



Oh, look!! This data is from your very own source!

Yeah, see... industry absolutely needs global Brent price about 5x what it is today, and the only reason they (some, anyway) are still pumping today is entirely due to extended lines of credit in a desperate bid to keep drilling ... debt which will never be paid back; lines of credit that have finally dried up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
March 9th 2014:

(we're at 96.5 million barrels/day now and oil is massively oversupplied still such that wells are being capped)
LOL!!! Yeah, couple things:

- Those wells are being capped because companies are going bankrupt (see chart above for the prices industry absolutely needs)
- It's easy to balloon the figure of total world production by simply changing the definition of what constitutes "total liquids."

When you suddenly throw 5M barrels per day of ultra-expensive-to-produce feedstock crude and condensate on the markets with no place to store it and fewer refineries willing to buy it, of course you're going to have the appearance of a "glut."

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Shale expanded so much since this post that it flooded the world (see graph below), and the US even overtook Saudi Arabia as the biggest producer of oil.
No, it never surpassed Saudi. Unless you consider NG and feedstock as "oil." And, of course you do.

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Now the huge excess of supply has pushed the price is so low that the shale wells are being capped, ready to be brought back online when the price rises again.
Low because of a lack of storage capacity and the increased refusal of many refineries to buy the oil due to how difficult it is to refine. ... And, if they've already started drilling, wells absolutely are not "easy" to start up again once shuttered. This further shows you have no clue what you're talking about.

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Well we're at that point. The "desperate hydraulics" are in fact being turned off because of massive oversupply. You cannot fail a prediction worse than this one.
Again, a very short burst of oversupply due to debt, lack of storage facility, and reduced purchasing power. You continue to confuse short-term supply (due to environmentally damaging technological advancement) with long-term supply promise.

I'm sure to a business-minded cultist like you, the tight oil "revolution" is perfectly sustainable, even though half the drillers are at or near insolvency.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
And for the final thread classic, here's your response to me last year when I noted that oil was dropping to $60 and your thesis of a supply shock in 1-2 years (from March 2014) was failing miserably:

I have 3 days to go until it's March 2016. I'll bump the thread when that happens. Oil is at $30 and we're 2 million barrels/day in oversupply even with shale wells being capped and Iran still to come online.
Well, by the time the decade is over, whether I was off by a year or a month, doesn't much matter to anyone but trolls like you. Because it is absolutely coming. The wonders of corporate credit can extend and pretend the problem for a little while, and that's the only reason you're awarding yourself a trophy before you've reached the goal line. Unfortunately for your arrogant argument, at this point - with global supply already declining, and U.S. supply set to plummet - about the only way a supply disaster doesn't happen in the next few years is a massive global/regional war killing off millions. ... But I'm sure, to you, the increasing possibility of that happening has curiously nothing to do with limits to resources.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
US production since this post:
LOL... graph does more for my argument than it does yours. DUCY? Probably not.

Commodities deflation... what does it mean?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Iran has yet to come online (another couple of million barrels/day at least in capacity) which will further flood the market with excess supply.
Please cite an objective source that claims Iran will add 2M barrels per day to global markets. .75M? maybe. ... Still not nearly enough to offset decline from other nations, including U.S. production. Look out below!!

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Anyway, your complete inability to admit fault even when the data has crushed your stated predictions and those of your experts is just amazing. There's no need to reply to you; the data speaks for itself.
LOL!!!! Ah yes, data like this:

Shale Drillers Halt Bakken Fracking as Saudis Send Gloomy Note
Continental Resources Inc., the shale oil pioneer controlled by billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, halted all fracking in the Bakken shale formation in the U.S. Williston Basin after posting its first annual loss since the company’s public debut in 2007. ... Continental is now seeking to raise cash by attracting investments from joint-venture partners in an Oklahoma discovery known as the Stack.
---------

You ultimate argument?: "Yay, limitless borrowing power!!! Who cares how many companies go under. Someone else will pick up where they left off!"... Oops, nope.

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Old 02-27-2016, 06:21 PM   #191
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

in the end, the dilemma is clear: ... unconventional production is the only part of the pie that has maintained overall production growth... unfortunately, unconventional oil production is completely uneconomical because the cost to produce is WAY higher than the consumer's ability to buy .... playing with debt and changing definitions of total liquids doesn't change that fact... conventional crude production peaked 11 years ago and has barely budged since. ...

U.S. production was a bubble that produced a secondary peak,and is now officially in decline. World production is already down 339,000 barrels per day since July (JODI).

It will get worse.
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Old 02-27-2016, 08:51 PM   #192
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
in the end, the dilemma is clear: ... unconventional production is the only part of the pie that has maintained overall production growth... unfortunately, unconventional oil production is completely uneconomical because the cost to produce is WAY higher than the consumer's ability to buy .... playing with debt and changing definitions of total liquids doesn't change that fact... conventional crude production peaked 11 years ago and has barely budged since. ...

U.S. production was a bubble that produced a secondary peak,and is now officially in decline. World production is already down 339,000 barrels per day since July (JODI).

It will get worse.
It isn't worse. It is better.

We can't even come up with demand that meets the supply now that China is done building for their future, despite record number of miles driven and a major decrease in capex.
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Old 02-27-2016, 08:56 PM   #193
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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It isn't worse. It is better.

We can't even come up with demand that meets the supply now that China is done building for their future, despite record number of miles driven and a major decrease in capex.
lol... U.S. tight oil production produces an unsustainable bubble that outstrips demand for a few years, and cornucopians insist this is the new normal. ... there, in a nutshell, is what we're dealing with.

you act like China slowing down rapidly is a willful choice of their own.

nevermind the industry bankruptcies, the EU and Japan bordering on recession and Saudi Arabia opening desperate new lines of credit.

get off the algae.
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:09 PM   #194
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
Tooth, if you enjoy Jiggs '14 you'll love Jiggs '09!

Jiggs, did you notice those >95mbd numbers yet?
Wait, he's been calling imminent peak oil since '09? It's like those guys who keep predicting the Apocalypse and seeing the signs of the end of times everywhere, except it's the Apocaloil.

I used to think imminent peak oil might be a thing. Jiggs managed to talk me out of it. That's quite a feat. It's really /thread now. Thanks for the bump Jiggs, and the laugh/WTF moment you gave everyone new reading your "imminent peak" in 1-2 years OP from two years ago when oil was at $120. Oil is now hugely oversupplied and at $30 two years later. We're obviously not peaking on supply for a very long time. The end.
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:10 PM   #195
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Tell me if I have this in my mind correctly:

Price of oil goes up - Jiggs is correct.
Price of oil goes down - Jiggs is correct.
Demand for oil goes up - Jiggs is correct.
Demand for oil goes down - Jiggs is correct.

Do I have the gist of it?
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:23 PM   #196
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Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Tooth, Jiggs made numerous predictions about shale production in the US never amounting to anything, how there would be like a 10-20 mbpd gap by 2015, that by 2015 we'd really be feeling the effects of peak oil, and so on in and around 2009.

It's a fun trip through memory lane.

Edit: In Jiggs defence there are other people with totally wrong predictions in those early threads. But nobody with Jiggs conviction and ability to stick with being wrong for many years.
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:26 PM   #197
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

Also, I don't think it's fair to call Jiggs a troll. He's actually well informed on the state of oil. He just doesn't understand certain concepts and draws wrong conclusions from his religious beliefs.
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:28 PM   #198
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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lol... U.S. tight oil production produces an unsustainable bubble that outstrips demand for a few years, and cornucopians insist this is the new normal. ... there, in a nutshell, is what we're dealing with.

you act like China slowing down rapidly is a willful choice of their own.

nevermind the industry bankruptcies, the EU and Japan bordering on recession and Saudi Arabia opening desperate new lines of credit.

get off the algae.
I really don't care if producers are sad. Las Vegas goes bankrupt every few years and the buildings don't disappear. Wealth just gets reshuffled. New deck, please!
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:29 PM   #199
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

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Also, I don't think it's fair to call Jiggs a troll. He's actually well informed on the state of oil. He just doesn't understand certain concepts and draws wrong conclusions from his religious beliefs.
I liked the fat kid avatar better. Creepy Einstein is creepy.
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Old 02-27-2016, 11:31 PM   #200
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Re: Oil majors dumping capital expenditures...

This thread is like the Matrix that Jiggs built. He's essentially the architect.
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